Photogenic sunset predictor

StewartR

StewartR

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We all like a photogenic sunset, and I've discovered a team of meteorologists who have been building a model to predict where and when they'll happen. Their model takes account of various meteorological factors such as moisture, pressure and cloud cover, and it's trying to predict the existence of high wispy clouds which will refract the sunset and add interest to the sky.

They're based in the US so most of their work s US-centric, and in the US they also have a sunrise model. But their Europe-wide forecast is here: http://sunsetwx.com/view/?id=5

It would be interesting to gather feedback from TP members to see how well the model agrees with reality.
 
I'll what the sunset's like on the 16th IF I remember by then! I'm lucky enough to have a West facing window and be within 10 minutes of a good sunset viewing spot so if the colours look good, I can get up there and shoot it! What that does mean is that I have LOADS of sunset shots so rarely bother these days unless it's looking especially spectacular.
 
Have marked my calendar for the 16th (same area as Nod) as have been waiting for a specific shot of sunset at this time of year. Whats the betting it will be raining though :)
 
Evens!
 
Great find, Will be interesting to see how this pans out when we get a break in the cloud.

How did you move it forward to the 16th?
The hover controls move forward in 3 hour stages.
 
This is great, but I'm not sure how to read it properly. Do the hours go 48 hours from now, or 48 hours from the next sunset in my area? (Sun sets around 3.50pm I think where I live).

This is what confuses me - if I go 48 hours from now, it will be 9:27am where I live, but the map shows a really warm sunset? i.e. my area is covered in red. And obviously the sun doesn't set now.

I'm missing something fundamental!
 
Nod said:
I'll what the sunset's like on the 16th IF I remember by then!...
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Steve B said:
Have marked my calendar for the 16th...
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I think you guys have misread it. The hover control thing allows you to step the forecasts forwards and backwards in time, but they don't correspond to specific dates. Each graphic is 3 hours later than the previous one, and the times to which they refer are set out at the top of the map.

So for example Map 16 currently says "Valid at 00Z Mon, DEC 07 2015". ("Z" means GMT.) But when they next update it Map 16 will refer to a different time.
 
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DodgyPhotog said:
This is great, but I'm not sure how to read it properly. Do the hours go 48 hours from now, or 48 hours from the next sunset in my area? (Sun sets around 3.50pm I think where I live).

This is what confuses me - if I go 48 hours from now, it will be 9:27am where I live, but the map shows a really warm sunset? i.e. my area is covered in red. And obviously the sun doesn't set now.

I'm missing something fundamental!
Click to expand...
Each map says on it what time it refers to. You need to scroll through them until you find the one which corresponds to the time at which the sun sets at your location.

The reason it's like this is because it was devised by people in the USA where sunset times vary hugely across the country, so it wouldn't be practical to just have one map for "sunset time".
 
StewartR said:
I think you guys have misread it. The hover control thing allows you to step the forecasts forwards and backwards in time, but they don't correspond to specific dates. Each graphic is 3 hours later than the previous one, and the times to which they refer are set out at the top of the map.

So for example Map 16 currently says "Valid at 00Z Mon, DEC 07 2015". ("Z" means GMT.) But when they next update it Map 16 will refer to a different time.
Click to expand...

Ah ok thanks, got it now. Looks perfect for tonight, so will be very quick to see if it works :)
 
Thanks for the link Stewart. This looks quite interesting. Thanks for the tips on how to read it, it makes much more sense now. Looks like we may have a chance of good sunset this evening in the south/east whereas Sunday sunset isn't looking as promising.hopefully the breaks in the cloud that are starting to appear will help tonight's sunset forecast.
 
StewartR said:
Each map says on it what time it refers to. You need to scroll through them until you find the one which corresponds to the time at which the sun sets at your location.

The reason it's like this is because it was devised by people in the USA where sunset times vary hugely across the country, so it wouldn't be practical to just have one map for "sunset time".
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Thanks, I'll take another look after lunch!
 
StewartR said:
I think you guys have misread it. The hover control thing allows you to step the forecasts forwards and backwards in time, but they don't correspond to specific dates. Each graphic is 3 hours later than the previous one, and the times to which they refer are set out at the top of the map.

So for example Map 16 currently says "Valid at 00Z Mon, DEC 07 2015". ("Z" means GMT.) But when they next update it Map 16 will refer to a different time.
Click to expand...

Would be nice if they gave some sort of explanation somewhere on the site (which was also slug slow for me.) I'll stick to the tried and tested look out of the window method!
 
So how does the sunset predictor work in practice?

This is what I saw here in Maidenhead this afternoon at around 16:15. (Apologies for the poor quality photo. It's a phone snap.) I've tried to tweak it as best I can to reflect the colours, and the intensity of colours, as I saw them.
13926-1449679206-f635697928aebd5b103659edf985a1c5.jpg


And the prediction was midway between these two maps, which were for 15:00 and 18:00 respectively:
13925-1449679032-7c020a6822a8c144e3d58f51f150fa2a.jpg


I'd call that a reasonable success.
 
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Unfortunately hasn't worked out here in the southwest, several times it has predicted ideal conditions, but the skies have been solid grey outside :)
 
danny_bhoy said:
Just a quick update to this - unless I'm mistaken (again) it looks as though you can now also access the same info for European sunrises by using the menu on the left. Could come in handy for us East Coast seascapers.
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I don't think you're mistaken. Well spotted.
 
Old thread but this is pretty cool, need to track it over a few weeks to see it's hit rate.
Not the easiest thing to get your head around at first.

As I understand it the forecast start point is say 06Z16SEP2016 (6am September 16th 2016) then you either jump hour by hour or by 3 hours steps: 3, 6, 9......

So 06Z + 6 is 6pm.

Great link.
 
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MrDrizz said:
Not the easiest thing to get your head around at first.

As I understand it the forecast start point is say 06Z16SEP2016 (6am September 16th 2016) then you either jump hour by hour or by 3 hours steps: 3, 6, 9......

So 06Z + 6 is 6pm.
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Indeed, it's quite difficult.

I think the easiest way to do it is not to worry about the 3 hour steps, because then (as you found) you need to note the time at which the map was produced and then count forward so many hours. I think it; easier to just scroll through the maps until I find the one that has the "Valid at" time closest to when our sunset or sunrise will be.

So for example, here in Maidenhead, sunset tonight is at 19:03 BST which is 18:03 GMT. I scroll through the maps and I find one which says "Valid at : 18Z Wed, SEP 21 2016" so that's almost spot on. If I pay close attention I can see that the forecast was produced at 06Z21SEP2016 and this is the +12 hours forecast, but once I've found the right map I don'd need to know that.
 
Incidentally, there is now a competing service.

Skyfire is an app which integrates with The Photographer's Ephemeris (TPE) to show sunrise and sunset predictions in a similar way to this (but presumably more user-friendly). Skyfire is only available on iOS, only works with TPE, and has a subscription charging scheme after the first 30 days trial.

Skyfire website: http://www.skyfireapp.com/
TP discussion thread: https://www.talkphotography.co.uk/threads/skyfire-for-tpe.635752/

It would be useful if people with iOS/TPE could compare the two prediction services.
 
Yeah seen that on the other thread.

Just another point, when you have the red in your area is it better for it to be above you or to the west/east?
 
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The number of times I have been out of bed at silly o'clock to get a sunrise over the river crouch, only to find clear skies above and a solid f'ing bank of cloud on the horizon so thick it 'delays' sunrise by an hour. This will be very useful if it is accurate.
 
MrDrizz said:
Yeah seen that on the other thread.

Just another point, when you have the red in your area is it better for it to be above you or to the west/east?
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I *think* the colours represent conditions where you are. So if the map is red where you are, the skies should be nice in the appropriate direction for sunrise or sunset as the case may be.

That would make more sense than the alternative, because it means you don't have to know the exact direction where the sun will rise/set. Where I live in Maidenhead, the compass bearing of sunrise varies from 049° to 128°, which incorporates quite large deviations from "east". And further north, the deviations are even larger.
 
I'm going to keep my eye on this, I'm forever missing spectacular sunsets - next time I pop my head out the window too late I'll be sure to fire this up and compare!
 
Holy thread resurection.

I've been referring to the website for a while now and would say it's been 20% bang on, 40% somewhat and 40% way out.

I don't plan my trips based on the site and it's wonderful when it predicts nowt and then.....there is a wonderful sunrise/set :)

Cheers.
 
Have to admit I gave up with it a fair while back, but would agree it was right about 20% of the time from my experience too.
 
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