The virus. PPE. Part 1

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n0chex said:
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So we've just got to survive this and the next outbreak to be safe?
 
Nod said:
So we've just got to survive this and the next outbreak to be safe?
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Only if you believe in the book and wear a tinfoil hat.
 
LongLensPhotography said:
I have a bit of experience in the filed to give some hard answers.

3. How do I create my own little startup in pharma??? One thing you can't seem to get is proper access to the literature.
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Literature is the easiest thing, as long as you don't mind paying for access to the journals. Every publisher will sell you a subscription or membership, and one-off access to specific papers is available for a charge. A lot of papers are also available FOC, as many workers now see a moral obligation to make knowledge available. Obviously you won't see much of commercial value from other pharma companies, and rightly so since they've spent their own money to acquire knowledge. Generally where stuff that's useful is published from them, there's a patent application already underway.

The usual process is generate an idea, preferably with some supporting data, then seek investors who will partner you while you develop the idea to the point where you have something that could become a product, possibly as far as early stage trials. At that point the next stage is to be acquired by a big company, either staying with the project or taking the money and rinse-repeat.

There are quite a few innovation centres up & down the country that will let you rent lab space at lowish cost and provide equipment, support, meeting rooms, reception etc. The one I had my business in was at Heyford Park (Cherwell Innovation Centre https://www.heyfordpark-ic.co.uk/) and the Diagnox Laboratory was set up originally by a friend and ex-collegue in 2003. I ran the shared lab facility there for a couple of years too after closing my company and also helped set up the Bristol Innovation Centre lab (https://www.futurespacebristol.co.uk/labs-in-bristol/) in one of the buildings on the old HP site. At the time I left in 2017 to go full-time with Native Antigen around 70% of the businesses that had taken space in the Diagnox lab facility were still going.

These guys started with Diagnox: https://seekacure.com/ https://psioxus.com/ https://www.oxgene.com/ https://absoluteantibody.com/ https://thenativeantigencompany.com/ among many others, generally with just one or 2 scientists renting a bench. Much of the modern 3D technology you find in cinema and TV sets came from a couple of guys working in the innovation centre (they had their own small lab in a suite of rooms) who ended up selling their technology to RealD.
 
n0chex said:
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When the hell were they written ? That’s totally chilling almost as if someone’s using the books as a script ?? .
 
I have read that book....digging it out again to skip to the end!
 
Gremlin said:
Someone I know was going to Turkey last October, never made it Thomas Cook went bust.
They've just booked a holiday in May .............................Yep in Tenerife
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I like the tourist in the hotel that has outbreak saying he knew something was wrong when the went down to breakfast and there was a skeleton staff ... :exit:
 
the black fox said:
When the hell were they written ? That’s totally chilling almost as if someone’s using the books as a script ?? .
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These conspiracy theorists are going to find this outbreak will bite them. Some are saying it’s an accidental release from a Wuhan biological warfare lab and now others are saying it was released by the CIA as part of Trump‘s trade wars. And Trump himself has been playing down and hinting at vaccine and his a Homeland security man has told Congress a vaccine will be available in “several months” and so on ... .
 
It’s no longer a laughing matter ,and I would think by mid March the whole world will be in deep Shiite . Economies are starting to feel the plunge now dow Jones dropped badly today ..

And the media are keeping suppressed the fact that people cured of it are catching it again ..might put a tenner on the olympics getting cancelled
 
the black fox said:
And the media are keeping suppressed the fact that people cured of it are catching it again
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Care to quote a reliable source for this? Is it just from your tin hatted friends.
 
People who have gotten the new coronavirus and recovered can get it again in the future, health authorities say — the body does not become immune after infection.

On Wednesday, Japanese authorities reported the first confirmed case of reinfection. A tour guide in Osaka first tested positive for the coronavirus in late January, then was discharged from the hospital three weeks ago after showing signs of recovery. But she returned to the hospital after developing a sore throat and chest pain and tested positive for the coronavirus once again.

Zhan Qingyuan, director of pneumonia prevention and treatment at the China-Japan Friendship Hospital, warned last month that this could happen.

"For those patients who have been cured, there is a likelihood of a relapse," Zhan said in a briefing on January 31. "The antibody will be generated; however, in certain individuals, the antibody cannot last that long."

Reinfections among patients in China have been reported as well.
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I find this statement curious. While I don't know *everything* there is to know about humoral immunity, I know enough that I'm sure antibodies won't just disappear in a few weeks. Far more likely the virus is mutating under selection pressure - or possibly because the viral genome is reproduced with considerable imprecision - and strains are turning up with different antigenic determinants on them. This isn't unusual, and it's normal with flu, but it IS unusual for it to happen so quickly.
 
Here are some balanced expert opinions on the patient who tested positive after an apparent recovery:

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/...confirmed-as-a-coronavirus-case-for-2nd-time/

So far, the viral genomes that have been sequenced are very closely related, so I doubt it's a case of lacking immunity to some new strain (coronavirus polymerases have proofreading activity, so the fidelity of replication is higher than with some other RNA viruses, and the virus has probably only been in humans for about 3 months, so there hasn't been much time for mutations to accumulate). I think the comment from Zhan Qingyuan may be based on experience with the other human coronaviruses that cause common cold symptoms, where there's some evidence of re-infection as immunity declines, but I assume that would be on a significantly longer timescale than was reported in this case.
 
Retune said:
Here are some balanced expert opinions on the patient who tested positive after an apparent recovery:

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/...confirmed-as-a-coronavirus-case-for-2nd-time/

So far, the viral genomes that have been sequenced are very closely related, so I doubt it's a case of lacking immunity to some new strain (coronavirus polymerases have proofreading activity, so the fidelity of replication is higher than with some other RNA viruses, and the virus has probably only been in humans for about 3 months, so there hasn't been much time for mutations to accumulate). I think the comment from Zhan Qingyuan may be based on experience with the other human coronaviruses that cause common cold symptoms, where there's some evidence of re-infection as immunity declines, but I assume that would be on a significantly longer timescale than was reported in this case.
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Thanks for posting the link.

I'd heard that the replication of RNA was unreliable, but that was a throwaway comment from someone who deals with a lot of viruses, and compared with flavis etc it may be sloppy but still 'good enough' to keep mutations down.

As you suggest, decline of immunity shouldn't be happening yet, rather IgG output should be building up nicely. It would seem far more likely, if the virus hasn't mutated, that they've been immunocompromised somehow. Perhaps they're just a poor/limited responder and a natural candidate for Darwin's selection process, however I'm also puzzled that the Dr. who gave first warning about the virus died since IIRC he wasn't in one of the natural risk groups, unless he was given a little 'help'.
 
this Is having serious effects on the economy my pension has lost a shed load of cash, the media and governments need to get this into perspective and stop the scaremongery, around 800 people an hour are dying through smoking.
 
Retune said:
Here are some balanced expert opinions on the patient who tested positive after an apparent recovery:
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I will admit I know Sweet Fanny Adams about viruses, but if those "balanced opinions" came from engineering experts on an engineering matter, what I just read, especially the first example, was just a load of waffle and a simple answer of "We don't know" would have sufficed.
 
Studio488commercial said:
this Is having serious effects on the economy my pension has lost a shed load of cash, the media and governments need to get this into perspective and stop the scaremongery, around 800 people an hour are dying through smoking.
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I don’t for one minute think it’s a case of scaremongering ,they are scared it’s spreading really fast ,it’s also according to a doctor in Wuhan got a extremely high mortality rate .. I personally think we are NOT being told the whole truth ..plus now they have found it “mildly” in a pet dog .. if I was in my 20’s and fit it wouldn’t bother me but a lot of are in the at risk category and that’s the real worry .at this moment in time the u.k is on top of it fingers crossed it stays that way .but I have my doubts.

At the moment reading the news is like reading the script for a 1970’s disaster movie
 
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I’m not at all impressed with the attitude of Ian Renton the Regional Director at Cheltenham Race Course in relation to the forthcoming 4-day annual Meeting. When he was interviewed on Five Live this morning. He sounded irresponsible to me.

The big 4-day festival is scheduled to start on March 10th.-13th. inclusive and all he could focus on was..”we’re looking forward to 4 days of fantastic racing”. “Each year we face difficulties of one kind or another. One year we had equine ‘flu to deal with 6 weeks before the Meeting. Stables went into isolation for a couple of weeks and all was well.” That might not be word for word but pretty close. The 4 days of fantastic horse racing comment is accurate.

When asked if he wasn’t worried about so many people attending his response was that “most racegoers are from the UK and Ireland and.....
’just a smattering from abroad”

Ok..no confirmed cases in Ireland yet..(NI one confirmed case.). Uk 16. A school in Bath has closed today because a pupil returned from an affected region abroad.

https://www.itv.com/news/westcountr...-schools-closed-today-amid-coronavirus-fears/

It only takes one person with the virus from that ‘smattering’ to generate contagion. As stated at the top of this post I actually found his comments thoroughly irresponsible. He did,however, acknowledge that the summer Olympics is a worry but of course that event won’t cause his business any loss of revenue.

Have a read of these responses . All they’re concerned about is the potential financial loss which I acknowledge will be substantial and not only for the venue but businesses,hotels and B&B’s included, in Cheltenham.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2...festival-fall-victim-coronavirus-horse-racing

At the 2018 4 -day Meeting 262,637 race goers attended.
 
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nilagin said:
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-risk-of-reinfection-2020-2?amp&ved=2ahUKEwjf392T8_LnAhXRaRUIHV9yD0UQFjANegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw2QA64uFRTOgjICdcdz0U9d&ampcf=1
A tour guide in Japan made a recovery only to go down with the virus again 3 weeks later.
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That hardly supports his theory that the media are suppressing the possibility of re-infection, with it being..like...you know...a news article! I'm pretty certain I first read about it on the BBC.
 
and as summer approaches it can only get worse . a stiff upper lip attitude won't help in most cases . I have a daughter and granddaughter booked on a luxury holiday this summer to Dubai, then Singapore then Thailand .. they cant cancel it and have to wait for a travel block before getting a refund or change of destination . its worrying to say the least
 
There’s usually a silver lining in the most dire situations so 1-0 to wild animals in China . They’ve banned these repulsive ‘live’ markets and I’m sure it will be permanent. On tv I’ve seen dogs being sold there too.
 
nilagin said:
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-risk-of-reinfection-2020-2?amp&ved=2ahUKEwjf392T8_LnAhXRaRUIHV9yD0UQFjANegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw2QA64uFRTOgjICdcdz0U9d&ampcf=1
A tour guide in Japan made a recovery only to go down with the virus again 3 weeks later.
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Thanks for the link, hardly suppressing information, if it and other news outlets are "running with it" nor does it appear to be that often, which is not what was being suggested.

Whilst I can understand some peoples concerns, some of the uninformed drivel doesn't help. Nothing to do with "stiff upper lip" just actually reading between the headlines and looking at reliable data sources.
 
nilagin said:
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.businessinsider.com/wuhan-coronavirus-risk-of-reinfection-2020-2?amp&ved=2ahUKEwjf392T8_LnAhXRaRUIHV9yD0UQFjANegQIAhAB&usg=AOvVaw2QA64uFRTOgjICdcdz0U9d&ampcf=1
A tour guide in Japan made a recovery only to go down with the virus again 3 weeks later.
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So what ............ some folk have immune systems that are defective etc. Viruses can subtly mutate and cause reinfection in some people. That has aways happened with colds and flus etc. Some people have endless colds through reinfection.

Panic mode seems to be moving into gallop mode. There are now 20 schools closed in England as a precautionary measure and at the same time an estimated 60,000 (police estimate), including school children dogging off school, will be going to Bristol to listen to Greta Thunderbum tell them that we are all doomed ...............:wacky:
 
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the black fox said:
and as summer approaches it can only get worse . a stiff upper lip attitude won't help in most cases . I have a daughter and granddaughter booked on a luxury holiday this summer to Dubai, then Singapore then Thailand .. they cant cancel it and have to wait for a travel block before getting a refund or change of destination . its worrying to say the least
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‘I would think that if it’s still with us by then there will be a block To those countries. It’s not just the country,though, it’s the airports and confinement in planes whilst travelling between countries.

People who have booked holidays should not have to bear a cancellation loss in these circumstances especially involving Hong Kong. I’m a cynic..maybe too much of one but there have been situations where people wonder why our FCO hasn’t declared a travel ban. Refunds are extremely costly to insurance companies and unless it‘s a clear no-brainier I wonder if that is taken into consideration. The cynic in me Googled which insurance companies donate to the Conservative Party but I could only find individual CEO’s etc ..some being affiliated to the insurance industry.

It sounds like a wonderful trip btw. Hopefully, it will turn out ok but as it stands and with a virus the scientific community know little about it’s not looking promising.
 
nilagin said:
I will admit I know Sweet Fanny Adams about viruses, but if those "balanced opinions" came from engineering experts on an engineering matter, what I just read, especially the first example, was just a load of waffle and a simple answer of "We don't know" would have sufficed.
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Those 'balanced opinions' are a bit like an engineer trying to deal with a claim that someone in Japan has managed to make an internal combustion engine run on tapwater - you know the facts as presented can't be true, so there's something missing in the story.

Likely we'll never know the real story, but several things come to mind:
The only 'diagnostic' test at the moment is PCR, and that's very susceptible to contamination and artifacts, so the patient may have had a fever and given a false positive reading, then been placed with CoV patients where they picked up the virus.
If the first test was a true positive, were they given another PCR test before being released to prove they were clear of infection, or did the doctors just wait until their symptoms cleared before releasing them.
They are genetically unable to mount an effective immune response, and therefore may harbour the virus and not be able to clear the infection.

Reinfection in such a short space of time would defy many of the laws of immunology and survival. That doesn't mean there couldn't be a novel way for the virus to dodge the immune system, but there's no evidence yet that these viruses can do that and there doesn't seem to be anything mysterious in the viral genome.

I'm running an assay today to see if we have an antibody that cross-reacts with one of the CoV spike proteins - hopefully it will be positive and provide another tool for those developing better tests to detect infection.
 
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jakeblu said:
That hardly supports his theory that the media are suppressing the possibility of re-infection, with it being..like...you know...a news article! I'm pretty certain I first read about it on the BBC.
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That had nothing to do with media suppressing anything. Proof was asked for the claim of re-infection and that is what I provided.
 
3 further UK cases today (2 were here from Iran and 1 from north Italy).

North Italy has 655 cases which is massively more than anywhere else in Europe. What is happening there ?

I think that Germany has the next highest - 48 cases, but no deaths so far.

S. Korea has 2337 cases. N. Korea are not admitting to any (no surprise there).

There is a lot of medical advice stressing the importance of hygiene, particularly thorough handwashing / sanitising gel and never to touch your face with your hands before thorough cleaning. Makes sense and a self discipline issue.

Toni (ancient_mariner) sounds like he is knowledgeable ............... Can this virus pose an airborne risk ?
I know that precautions are being taken at some medical centres, but have read that the evidence is not conclusive. Your thoughts would be appreciated.
 
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There was a UK doctor or perhaps she was an epidemiologist being interviewed on radio earlier this week.

She was saying that there no recorded fatalities in infants, children or young people. The deaths have been mainly in the over 80's especially those with underlying medical conditions.......the latter caveat could of course include those adults under 80.

It was her I think who reflected on the one case of apparent reinfection, saying that Covid19 may yet fall into the category of only 4 other viruses, that include the common cold, that are responsible for potential reinfection. In other words Covid19 far from being a pandemic killer that has lots of folk concerned about, could become just(?) another seasonal infection akin to seasonal flu or cold!!!

Though of course with uncertainty comes fear of the unknown.... hopefully we will have a viable vaccine soonish to mitigate for future infections. NB for it is not for nothing that the flu jab is offered to older folk and babies/infants.....because they are considered to be the highest at risk groups. Unlike Covid19 where the highest at risk group(s) have yet to be officially stated.
 
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Mother nature thinning the herd, bound to happen sooner or later.
NHS is struggling having to keep people going with carrier bags full of prescription meds.
So many people past their sell by date, care homes full and hospitals bedlocked.

Only last week I was speaking to a nurse at a GP surgery who said they are overwhelmed by the very old.
Might not be the worst thing to happen, we immunised against the flu which was the previous regulator
 
Box Brownie said:
She was saying that there no recorded fatalities in infants, children or young people. The deaths have been mainly in the over 80's especially those with underlying medical conditions.......the latter caveat could of course include those adults under 80.
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Whilst it appears to be the elderly and infirm that are being killed by the virus, what are the underlying factors for why some are catching the virus in the first place whilst others appear to be immune? Of those that appear to be immune and not showing signs of the virus, could they still infect be carriers passing it onto others.
 
tijuana taxi said:
So many people past their sell by date
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Care to define when that "sell by date"is?

Is when you retire
70
80
90
When you don't pay any taxes (for whatever reason)
 
nilagin said:
Whilst it appears to be the elderly and infirm that are being killed by the virus, what are the underlying factors for why some are catching the virus in the first place whilst others appear to be immune? Of those that appear to be immune and not showing signs of the virus, could they still infect be carriers passing it onto others.
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You could argue the case for most illnesses or diseases. Why did I get cancer, but my friend(s) haven't (as yet(hopefully)) Why was my mum the only one from a large family to get Dementia? etc etc.
 
munch said:
Care to define when that "sell by date"is?

Is when you retire
70
80
90
When you don't pay any taxes (for whatever reason)
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No point trying to answer such a ridiculous question, you know full well what I am saying.
 
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