The virus. PPE. Part 1

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Well, we had cancelled Venice city break for the weekend crossing Feb/Mar, my parents agreed to babysit so we can go out for the first time in 2 years. Wife, who is also Chinese but different to me, she consumes Chinese media. She would not listen to logic, so we are cancelling the trip out of fear getting infected.

The logical thing to do is to monitor the situation, only consider cancellation if there were new confirmed cases in that area of Europe. Otherwise the risk of infection is very very low.

I was in Kyoto, some temples I was the only person there in the whole place, i have never seen it that deserted, so much so the Kyoto tourism board has made an ad asking people to keep coming!

You can’t catch something is there is no one around to catch it from!
 
I think it‘s going to break out in Japan. The accounts of what has gone on with the ship sound to me like it was still spreading and they are releasing everybody into the community today.
Just seen Japanese expert (who had worked on Ebola in Africa) saying the conditions onboard are chaotic and he felt safer in Africa than on the ship as he could not tell where the virus was and where it wasn’t.
Latest report is two of the passengers have died, although they were in their 80's and had other health issues, so probably a combination of those and the virus being too much for them.
 
and a recovery rate so far of just over 9%.

You can not just take the figure of those recovered and state the recovery rate is 9% if you do you are then implying 91% will die which is rubbish.
 
I know people are scared but think logically.

the chances of dying is 2%, but 0% if you are a child it seems. But that is the chance should you actually have it, you got to catch it first.

So to get it, it’s number of infected in the country / population. That is like 9/60million in the UK....that’s pretty good odds. Then multiply that by 2%.

that is your true mortality rate.

The 2% mortality rate assume you are 100% going to catch it, that assumes everyone in the population has it. Even then it is only 2%.

sure you don’t want to go to Hubei province but going to Italy is not anymore dangerous than leaving the house in England.
 
I know people are scared but think logically.

the chances of dying is 2%, but 0% if you are a child it seems. But that is the chance should you actually have it, you got to catch it first.

So to get it, it’s number of infected in the country / population. That is like 9/60million in the UK....that’s pretty good odds. Then multiply that by 2%.

that is your true mortality rate.

The 2% mortality rate assume you are 100% going to catch it, that assumes everyone in the population has it. Even then it is only 2%.

sure you don’t want to go to Hubei province but going to Italy is not anymore dangerous than leaving the house in England.
I don't think it's @wyx087 that needs convincing but rather his wife.
 
I know people are scared but think logically.

the chances of dying is 2%, but 0% if you are a child it seems. But that is the chance should you actually have it, you got to catch it first.

So to get it, it’s number of infected in the country / population. That is like 9/60million in the UK....that’s pretty good odds. Then multiply that by 2%.

that is your true mortality rate.

The 2% mortality rate assume you are 100% going to catch it, that assumes everyone in the population has it. Even then it is only 2%.

sure you don’t want to go to Hubei province but going to Italy is not anymore dangerous than leaving the house in England.
It's more or less what I've said.

There's probably a higher chance of winning the lottery, it is a LOT more risky for my car commute than catching the virus.


*sigh*

The flight is listed on sparefare, Bristol to Venice in 1.5 weeks, if anyone want ultra cheap flights.
 
It's more or less what I've said.

There's probably a higher chance of winning the lottery, it is a LOT more risky for my car commute than catching the virus.


*sigh*

The flight is listed on sparefare, Bristol to Venice in 1.5 weeks, if anyone want ultra cheap flights.

I can’t be bothered to have the same conversation with my parents who I know will moan and worry so I told them I’m in Portugal... lol
 
I was in Kyoto, some temples I was the only person there in the whole place, i have never seen it that deserted, so much so the Kyoto tourism board has made an ad asking people to keep coming!

You can’t catch something is there is no one around to catch it from!

So surely that means better photo opportunities.
 
if the Japanese have the same hygiene standard practice then I think they will but between strangers Japan don’t have human contact much.

coming up is pollen season and every other person wear a mask in any given year, so this will slow the spreading (yes I know masks are not 100%, I said slow, not prevent), when you sit down to eat, they give you a hand wipe so your hands are clean before you eat. At every store and shop front now has a hand sanitiser for anyone to use.

when you pay are some places like Suikiya, you are asked to wave your receipt with a bar code at the machine, which then you out in cash and it gives you change. The staff don’t even touch the money.

every staff member at every shop are wearing face masks, every hotels (I stayed in 2), it has a sign asking all customers feeling un

ps I was there 4 days ago.

I am right now in Korea and they are even more on it than the Japanese. My hotel reception give you a face mask if you ask, there is a camera scanning all persons entering for high temperature, I see signs on what to do to prevent it everywhere, face masks are sold in vending machines and alcohol sanitiser at every shop front for anyone to use. Tannoys at station telling you the numbers to ring should you feel unwell in Korean, Japanese, Chinese and English. I would say 80% of the population is wearing a mask, even out in the open with no one else close by.

Lotte World Tower has closed its door linking to the underground entrance asking people to enter via the ground floor entrance instead, I guess they don’t want the air from the underground to get in.
I think if the west has an outbreak, it will blow up, we do not do half the stuff these Japanese or Koreans do, we think masks wearers are walking virus. There is a bigoted mindset to begin with and all the hugging and kissing faces when you meet a friend is going to spread it faster than you can say Hello.
Oh yes, that’ll help but can’t stop one of those released passengers giving it to family members for example and then Japan will have ‘native’ cases and travel restrictions to other countries will kick in which would be bound to hurt.
to a greater or lesser extent.
 
Oh yes, that’ll help but can’t stop one of those released passengers giving it to family members for example and then Japan will have ‘native’ cases and travel restrictions to other countries will kick in which would be bound to hurt.
to a greater or lesser extent.

Like I said, it will help, and your example will only provide the same risk as any other country for families, not more.
 
This morning I heard a Brit. passenger on the Diamond Princess being interviewed. He said that he had tested positive for the virus, but had no symptoms at all. That made me wonder if it is possible to be a carrier only. Perhaps the symptoms have yet to develop.
 
This morning I heard a Brit. passenger on the Diamond Princess being interviewed. He said that he had tested positive for the virus, but had no symptoms at all. That made me wonder if it is possible to be a carrier only. Perhaps the symptoms have yet to develop.

it’s like AIDS, you can have HIV but it can take time before it become full blown AIDS.
 
You can not just take the figure of those recovered and state the recovery rate is 9% if you do you are then implying 91% will die which is rubbish.
Of course you can, the data has a number of people with the virus and numbers of people who A: recovered and B: died. using those three numbers gives you percentages so far, they will of course change but currently they are what they are.
 
Of course you can, the data has a number of people with the virus and numbers of people who A: recovered and B: died. using those three numbers gives you percentages so far, they will of course change but currently they are what they are.
Imagine you start with 10 infected people, the size of the epidemic is doubling every week or so (which isn't far off the real figure) and it takes about 3 weeks before you can say if someone has recovered (since some people get worse after a couple of weeks). 3 weeks later, 9 of the initial 10 have recovered, but by then the epidemic has doubled in size three times, to 80 cases. So today you have 9 recoveries, and 80 cases. What proportion have recovered?
 
This morning I heard a Brit. passenger on the Diamond Princess being interviewed. He said that he had tested positive for the virus, but had no symptoms at all. That made me wonder if it is possible to be a carrier only. Perhaps the symptoms have yet to develop.
Might be either. Yesterday there was a case report of someone with a positive test who never developed symptoms, but when their nose and throat swabs were analysed, it turned out they were producing as much virus as other patients with significant symptoms:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001737
 
Oh yes, that’ll help but can’t stop one of those released passengers giving it to family members for example and then Japan will have ‘native’ cases and travel restrictions to other countries will kick in which would be bound to hurt.
to a greater or lesser extent.
It's pretty clear that quarantine within the ship failed. All the passengers should have been treated as if they had just come back from Wuhan and placed in quarantine on land (which various countries will be insisting on, including the UK), not just left to board public transport (as some passengers reportedly did).
 
Well, we had cancelled Venice city break for the weekend crossing Feb/Mar, my parents agreed to babysit so we can go out for the first time in 2 years. Wife, who is also Chinese but different to me, she consumes Chinese media. She would not listen to logic, so we are cancelling the trip out of fear getting infected.

The logical thing to do is to monitor the situation, only consider cancellation if there were new confirmed cases in that area of Europe. Otherwise the risk of infection is very very low.

Well after our China flights were cancelled I was looking to go else where but my wife is being exactly the same..

I had looked at Venice or Copenhagen as a weekend alternative but was told no. I’ve now been tasked with finding a holiday in the highlands [emoji849] so won’t be a warm Easter break for us this year.


I was also reading that China has now reverted to the original way they were diagnosing the virus. So the stats show new cases to have slowed or dropped which intact is not happening it’s getting worse. There were now over 1000 reported cases and 7 deaths outwith China within a day.
 
Well after our China flights were cancelled I was looking to go else where but my wife is being exactly the same..

I had looked at Venice or Copenhagen as a weekend alternative but was told no. I’ve now been tasked with finding a holiday in the highlands [emoji849] so won’t be a warm Easter break for us this year.


I was also reading that China has now reverted to the original way they were diagnosing the virus. So the stats show new cases to have slowed or dropped which intact is not happening it’s getting worse. There were now over 1000 reported cases and 7 deaths outwith China within a day.
Ha, it's amazing they think so similar when they (probably) have zero direct communication. That's the power of years of believing state media and not thinking for themselves.

Have you suggested many other families will have similar thought pattern, so remote places will also be packed with viruses? ;)
 
Ha, it's amazing they think so similar when they (probably) have zero direct communication. That's the power of years of believing state media and not thinking for themselves.

Have you suggested many other families will have similar thought pattern, so remote places will also be packed with viruses? ;)

My wife is abit of a germophobe anyway. Doesn’t like human contact(cuddle/shaking hands) or even opening doors and always has hand sanitiser.

I remember the first year bird flu was out we went to China and then on one of the first nights we watched contagion... was not a great idea we nearly never left the house for 3 weeks as her paranoia went into overdrive.

She was wanting to go to landmark at Aviemore and I did try and say that’s a tourist spot too on especially on a bank holiday weekend. So not she might want to go more into the sticks..

Lol we have a stock of dried/tinned food and water ready stocked in the garage in case s*** hits the fan[emoji23]
 
Quick run through WHO stats online.

61200 people died of influenza in the US alone in 2018...and that was an "on par" year.

180,000 died of measles globally in the same year.
Measles fatalities have never fallen below 90,000 annually, even when vaccine uptake was at its highest

Panic over Corona is not yet justified imo.
 
Quick run through WHO stats online.

61200 people died of influenza in the US alone in 2018...and that was an "on par" year.

180,000 died of measles globally in the same year.
Measles fatalities have never fallen below 90,000 annually, even when vaccine uptake was at its highest

Panic over Corona is not yet justified imo.
But measles doesn’t affect us (apart from anti-vaxxer hotspots) it’s mostly in Africa from memory. And of there is a vaccine!
 
It's more or less what I've said.

There's probably a higher chance of winning the lottery, it is a LOT more risky for my car commute than catching the virus.


*sigh*

The flight is listed on sparefare, Bristol to Venice in 1.5 weeks, if anyone want ultra cheap flights.

https://news.yahoo.com/10-italian-towns-lockdown-over-coronavirus-fears-220635548.html
There may be now good reasons to be careful about going to Italy. If you just use campervan in the Dolomites you'll be fine though.... no flights or hotels for me any time soon. I like being self-reliant on my travels anyway; this helps with being more frugal and spending far more time out there as a result.
 
Yes, it puzzled me that they kept them on the ship, it seemed a good way to spread it throughout. The cabins must share an air conditioner system and it’s not certain how the virus spreads or lasts in air. I thought they should have taken them all off to a place like we have used in U.K. But the Japanese can be brutal about some things and see things differently from us. However the result is that as people develop the disease they are taken off and are then in Japan anyway.
Sorry to quote myself but support for my view that it was a bad idea to keep people on that ship:

“I think that was one of the cruelest human experiments I've seen in my entire career,” said Michael Osterholm, director of University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy, who has advised federal health officials on the response. “That was truly one of our public health lesser moments.”

The same article says:
“(US) Officials managing the evacuation last Saturday were later surprised to learn, while busing evacuees to a Japanese airfield, that 14 Americans they were transporting were reported to have tested positive for coronavirus.“

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/21/coronavirus-trump-white-house-116650
 
Quick run through WHO stats online.

61200 people died of influenza in the US alone in 2018...and that was an "on par" year.

180,000 died of measles globally in the same year.
Measles fatalities have never fallen below 90,000 annually, even when vaccine uptake was at its highest

Panic over Corona is not yet justified imo.
Panic would of course be the wrong reaction, but serious concern is justified. I don't think it's very useful to compare the stats with long-established diseases. Measles and influenza have been with us for centuries, COVID-19 for only about 3 months, and the virus hasn't yet had the chance to infect many people outside China. Transmission in various countries is already starting to occur from and between people with no known links to China, Whether containment is practical is something we'll learn in the next few weeks but, as the WHO director had just stated, the 'window of opportunity is narrowing'.
 
The window of opportunity for containing the virus was closed before the news of its existence hit the world's screens.
 
I'm really proud of the guys I work with - AFAIK we were the first to produce usable quantities of viral proteins for investigation into the disease and possible creation of immuno-diagnostic kits - the guys were working their socks off to get these out: https://thenativeantigencompany.com/novel-coronavirus-antigens-now-available/

FWIW it's unlikely there will be a vaccine out for this outbreak, but there are companies putting systems in place so that they could quickly generate a vaccine if there's a next time around.
 
I'm really proud of the guys I work with - AFAIK we were the first to produce usable quantities of viral proteins for investigation into the disease and possible creation of immuno-diagnostic kits - the guys were working their socks off to get these out: https://thenativeantigencompany.com/novel-coronavirus-antigens-now-available/

FWIW it's unlikely there will be a vaccine out for this outbreak, but there are companies putting systems in place so that they could quickly generate a vaccine if there's a next time around.
Very well done. I am sure there are groups everywhere working their socks off too!
 
Italy has just put a quarantine on several towns in Lombardy . And Israel has refused to let 200 passengers from South Korea disembark from a plane ,sending them back only 12 Israeli citizens allowed off the plane .
With the start of the holiday season due I have the feeling a lot of people are going to be cancelling this years trips
 
I'm really proud of the guys I work with - AFAIK we were the first to produce usable quantities of viral proteins for investigation into the disease and possible creation of immuno-diagnostic kits - the guys were working their socks off to get these out: https://thenativeantigencompany.com/novel-coronavirus-antigens-now-available/

FWIW it's unlikely there will be a vaccine out for this outbreak, but there are companies putting systems in place so that they could quickly generate a vaccine if there's a next time around.

Strangely enough after reading your post I was talking to someone a few hours later how was saying the exact same thing.

He had been out in Africa during the Ebola crisis and said this was only just starting.
His thoughts were that so far it was mainly contained to China but now clusters were popping up on other countries with no link and for here it would spread rapidly with nothing to stop it and the results could be devastating.
He said people keep comparing it to the cold or measles, but both of these actually have anti virals/ cures already made they just spread as not everyone takes the vaccines, where as this he similarly said it would be at least a year before they would have a vaccine/cure ready to ship.
And by that time how many people could be infected or die is anyone’s guess.

He also believed that China as norma would not be telling the full truth of the scale of this issue and that WHO were really just useless, there handeling and advise over Ebola was terrible and caused it to spread not reduce it.
 
Italy has just put a quarantine on several towns in Lombardy . And Israel has refused to let 200 passengers from South Korea disembark from a plane ,sending them back only 12 Israeli citizens allowed off the plane .
With the start of the holiday season due I have the feeling a lot of people are going to be cancelling this years trips

I won’t cancel any of mine.
 
I have a strong suspicion than many infections are asymptomatic, and the mortality rate is lower than currently calculated.
 
Just seen they have pulled the plug on the Venice carnival two days early ,it’s creeping closer to the u.k every day .how long before a major outbreak here and are we prepared ..... bet not ?
 
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