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And yet you are quite willing to be blase about it all and accept somewhere between 40,000 ( your example ) and over a million (WHO 3.4% mortality rate) deaths.
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The virus. PPE. Part 1
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And yet you are quite willing to be blase about it all and accept somewhere between 40,000 ( your example ) and over a million (WHO 3.4% mortality rate) deaths.
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Yes. Its not blasé, just realistic
Please also get your facts right, that 40,000 was for Germany.
See how errors start and then all of a sudden get misquoted as fact
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How about the rest of my post, noted that too?
You are getting a bit lairy as well, not so keen on that to be honest
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sphexx
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You have a problem with understanding what a “fact” is. For example Paul cited “40,000” as “your example” and “over a million’ as an estimate.
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ROFLMAO Im getting "lairy" I didn't realise that asking for clarification of a position was "lairy". Maybe you just don't like the fact that you have admitted you have no problem with mass death and are lashing out.
No, it was your example of the sort of numbers to try and combat my figures from the WHO.
Indeed, but it seems he only cares about himself so there's simply no arguing with that. He wants me to "note" the rest of his post too but does he really want me to comment that he names random sources that he doesn't qualify or quantify? I think he's just out for an arguement.
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Yes, I accept a number of people will die from this virus
No idea same as you or your mate how many it will be
Is that ok with you or is there something else you want to argue the toss over
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You're the one being selfish and argumentative, no one has been shouting at you or calling you names. You are deliberately being provocative and if not deliberate then your lack of intelligence and empathy on the issue is astounding.
To say no one has any idea is hiding your head in the sand, I suppose that all the medical experts on epidemic research, modelling of disease spread, virologists, biochemists and all the research done so far gives literally no indication of it's spread?
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No I am not lashing out because I really don't care, but you have got very self righteous and high handed
I don't have much empathy, way it is and yes I accept a lot of people will die, no idea how many though
Its a shame as is any death, but these things happen periodically, did before and will again
Sometimes a lack of feelings can be a blessing, just accept we are all wired differently
Had the dubious pleasure seeing CCTV recording of my old ma fatally injured by a car as she crossed the road.
Helped me then and now too, you asked me whether it bothered me and I answered honestly
Why then start trying to impose your view as though it couldn't possibly be seen any other way
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AZ6
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You know what; I didn't join this forum to make enemies. But I'm not going to just sit back and let you bad mouth me. 'Facts'? Ok then:
YOUR words. Not mine. I don't think I'm the one struggling with 'facts'. And this, because others didn't agree with your opinions...
Anyway. Let's leave it there.
Sure. I have friends and family who are at great risk from such a virus. But given that there is now very little we can actually do, effectively, I don't think it's something that we should let rule our lives in quite the way people think it should. So yes, let's take 'precautions'. But the genie's out of the bottle now. We just have to accept it. Keep calm and carry on.
I'm with this. We're powerless to stop this happening anyway. So let's just go and ride out bikes and have fun*.
*Oh sorry, wrong forum... ;-)
sphexx
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Yes. I only bother because I think we need to understand how people come to that way of thinking. It’s interesting that @tijuana taxi says he knows nothing about the virus and then seems conclude that nobody knows anything and yet asserts that it would be best to let the virus take its course. What a contrast with Trump who actually knows nothing and yet concludes he knows everything
. Did you see he is now a medical genius:"You know, my uncle was a great person. He was at MIT. He taught at MIT for, I think, like a record number of years. He was a great super genius. Dr. John Trump. I like this stuff. I really get it. People are surprised that I understand it. Every one of these doctors said, 'How do you know so much about this? ' Maybe I have a natural ability. Maybe I should have done that instead of running for president."
There’s a common thread among anti-vaxxers, climate deniers, flat-earthers (who seem to be on a rise) and Ever-Trumpers and that other thing I won’t mention
who all reject “experts” and yet consider themselves to be some kind of expert .
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I never said you were lashing out. Nor am I trying to impose a view, I have stated facts about coronavirus rather than your contradictory "this is what will happen / no one knows what will happen" ignorance. And now you go complaining like someones out to get you because of your lack of feelings. In reality I clarified your position on being content to see mass death which you confirmed and I noted this and left it there. You are the one that keeps coming back and being arguementative and contradictory as if Im to blame for your view that we should just let it happen and let people die en masse.
woof woof
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There’s a common thread among anti-vaxxers, climate deniers, flat-earthers (who seem to be on a rise) and Ever-Trumpers and that other thing I won’t mention
I'm not in favour of rejecting all experts but lets remember they're just people, hopefully appropriately trained and experienced people but sadly possibly also people with a vested interest or bias or simply just people capable of being wrong. I am a believer in asking questions and not taking anything at face value or on trust just because an expert says so.
We place a lot of trust in experts and I do think that what they say should be open to question and debate.
Anyway, your post just made me think that for governments it's maybe difficult to choose the right ones to appoint and listen to.
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You are right of course and so (knowing about the hierarchy of evidence etc) it is important to differentiate between experts that simply call themselves such vs those that are in well respected validated positions in organisations that actively are accountable and open to critique to ensure the best evidence is available and scrutineered. ie WHO, CDC, NHS PHE etc being more trusted than some bloke on the internet that says he's a (insert title of expert here) with absolutely no back up or validity to who he actually is
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On BBC breakfast this morning, they had 3 people giving advice and answering questions such as statutory sick pay etc. One of the people was answering questions from a medical point of view, I didn't catch who he was but assume he was a medical expert. He was asked about people having such a mild infection, that they would be oblivious to being infected and can people become infected more than once.
His answer was that there isn't enough evidence to say people can become infected a second time, but everyone can become infected at least once, but the severity will vary. He went onto say that the more people who get such a mild infection, will actually help build a resistance and on that basis, the sooner everyone becomes infected, the better.
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Im sorry but based on the highlighted part in your post, I really don't know how to reply to that?
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The average death rate on closed cases is about 6%. Assuming that stands good, and it might not, everyone getting infected would totally cripple the NHS and result in up to 4 million deaths depending on how many aren't being tested. That expert really wasn't. (Edit: he might have been an expert but he wasn't thinking it through)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
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That is assuming the current number of UK infected is the actual number, they have just had a couple of medical experts on Jeremy Vine and both of those agreed that there will be so many people who have suffered such a mild infection, they will be oblivious to it and the real figure of infected is actually than the sub 500 at yesterdays "official" figure.
Our local borough has just 2 infected people, I find it hard to believe that they won't have infected others, but I don't find it hard to believe that people they are likely to have infected won't be aware they have it or indeed in a few weeks time know that they did have it.
woof woof
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Without focusing too much on the numbers and what the end number will be it's sobering to think that someone or maybe two or more of our close little circle / world could die of this and every street could potentially be affected. Sobering.
As I may have said earlier, every death is a tragedy and maybe we should take the yearly flu this seriously until we can develop more effective vaccines.
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I think you dont understand the distinction between argument, contradiction and abuse. Here a primer for you:
And you are not really in one of the “fun’ forums, this is the “Out of Focus” forum, there are plenty of others
sphexx
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Indeed, probably higher than average given the apparent age profile
. However, although we don’t know for certain, this virus is possibly 10 or more times more lethal than flu and although the flu vaccines have quite low effectiveness in some groups overall the vaccination considerably constrains the spread among the population .
sphexx
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Your general questioning attitude is fine but do you believe in the precautionary principle? If you are in a building and someone shouts “fire” do you leave, which will likely have no ill effect and may save your life, or do you start interrogating the shouter?
Similarly, with this virus all people are being asked to do are simple things, many of which they should be doing anyway, such as washing their hands, sneezing into tissues etc etc which will not harm them or anyone else compared with the possibility of unknowingly spreading the virus round
.
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Your general questioning attitude is fine but do you believe in the precautionary principle? If you are in a building and someone shouts “fire” do you leave, which will likely have no ill effect and may save your life, or do you start interrogating the shouter?
Similarly, with this virus all people are being asked to do are simple things, many of which they should be doing anyway, such as washing their hands, sneezing into tissues etc etc which will not harm them or anyone else compared with the possibility of unknowingly spreading the virus round
I certainly believe that everyone in authority should be questioned and often sadly I think they are probably lacking and this must be the case as with hindsight often we see they were less expert than they thought.
My general point was at the end of my post and was that it must be difficult for Boris and others to decide who to listen to and what to do even if deciding to do whatever the expert person/group says.
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No I do, but thanks for your efforts anyway. Let's leave it there, eh? Thanks.
I Doubt it.
Boris : 'Dom, what should I do?'
Dominic Cummings: 'Do what I tell you to'
Boris: 'Ok Dom!'
No I do, but thanks for your efforts anyway. Let's leave it there, eh? Thanks.
I Doubt it.
Boris : 'Dom, what should I do?'
Dominic Cummings: 'Do what I tell you to'
Boris: 'Ok Dom!'
arclight
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The statistics are bit of a minefield (at least for me !).
There are variables in the circumstances of the infections and outcomes. E.g. the demographics (and social conditions such as large families living together) of different countries can mean that particular groups (old or young, perhaps) can feature prominently and thereby slew the stats. Also, the stage at which diagnosis took place may well affect outcome. Perhaps 40 year old patients who did not receive medical support until late in the illness would be more like to die than 70 year olds who had an early diagnosis then received good medical care.
Similarly, in places where the health care was basically poor or has become utterly overwhelmed by the numbers then patients may triaged. Could that not result in large numbers of people above a certain age being left on a wing and a prayer.
Another factor is the general health of the population. For instance, I would expect N. Korea to have a high casualty rate due to mal-nourishment.
There are potentially lethal conditions that are usually easily treatable, but if they appeared in such large numbers so as require treatment to be rationed/prioritised then the death rate would soon climb. Therefore, stats. will be affected by the availability of health care.
Looking at the bare stats. such as numbers of infections / deaths / recoveries is rather rudimentary (I think). These figures do not reveal just how ill, and for how long, patients became or whether any have been left with permanent health problems. These are all factors and there could be others, I guess) in assessing the impact of Covid 19.
From worldometers info:-
"How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak
There are variables in the circumstances of the infections and outcomes. E.g. the demographics (and social conditions such as large families living together) of different countries can mean that particular groups (old or young, perhaps) can feature prominently and thereby slew the stats. Also, the stage at which diagnosis took place may well affect outcome. Perhaps 40 year old patients who did not receive medical support until late in the illness would be more like to die than 70 year olds who had an early diagnosis then received good medical care.
Similarly, in places where the health care was basically poor or has become utterly overwhelmed by the numbers then patients may triaged. Could that not result in large numbers of people above a certain age being left on a wing and a prayer.
Another factor is the general health of the population. For instance, I would expect N. Korea to have a high casualty rate due to mal-nourishment.
There are potentially lethal conditions that are usually easily treatable, but if they appeared in such large numbers so as require treatment to be rationed/prioritised then the death rate would soon climb. Therefore, stats. will be affected by the availability of health care.
Looking at the bare stats. such as numbers of infections / deaths / recoveries is rather rudimentary (I think). These figures do not reveal just how ill, and for how long, patients became or whether any have been left with permanent health problems. These are all factors and there could be others, I guess) in assessing the impact of Covid 19.
From worldometers info:-
"How to calculate the mortality rate during an outbreak
At present, it is tempting to estimate the case fatality rate by dividing the number of known deaths by the number of confirmed cases. The resulting number, however, does not represent the true case fatality rate and might be off by orders of magnitude [...]
A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present."
A precise estimate of the case fatality rate is therefore impossible at present."
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sphexx
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I don’t think “Authority” = “Expert” (though sometimes the word is used that way
) but I definitely agree “persons in authority”, eg politicians, should always be questioned.[/QUOTE]
My general point was at the end of my post and was that it must be difficult for Boris and others to decide who to listen to and what to do even if deciding to do whatever the expert person/group says.
“Boris” will be calculating what’s best for “Boris” which so far he has proved to be quite skilful at
sphexx
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So true, arguably we’re at the 4th stage already with “containment has failed”.
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Blimey, you still going on about this, are you self isolating and bored..
Give it up, you know bugger all about it, same as me and everyone else on here.
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What tyres for Coronavirus?
sphexx
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Thank you for your concern
. Yes, I am self-isolating AFAIC, I haven't been out since I was discharged from hospital Tuesday 3rd and have plenty of food etc in the house (because ... Brexit ). I am not bored.What’s your excuse for being here?
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Thank you for your concern
What’s your excuse for being here?
I have just been out for a three or four mile walk over the fields looking for remnants of an old light railway line
Keep your eyes peeled and you might see some of the photos I took of my findings
Lunchtime now then wash my clobber that got rather muddy, slipped down an old embankment.
Bit of blood too, had to grab at barbed wire to stop going in the river, all part of the fun
No sense of danger either, another one of my failings, get out there and savour it.
Oh and I wasn't concerned
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If you want to travel from Schengen area to US via U.K., that’s fine ... if you spend 14 days in U.K. ! Thank you Mr Trump
Wait until that starts to really impact on US business and tourism. See how quickly it gets reversed then...
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It seem to me....................
It is now certain that the virus will spread world wide.
that for any particular area the numbers will rapidly swell to a peak then equally rapidly subside.
the time period for this, will depend largely on the movement of people to and from and around that area.
It helps for people to isolate themselves as much as possible.
However, were you to see only one other person during your isolation, that one person may have links to literally thousands of possible infected contacts.
It is best to not have direct contact or even close proximity to anyone at all, and maintain at least a meter of personal zone.
Total isolation is virtually impossible.
Wear rubber gloves when accepting deliveries to avoid unnecessary contact. Open the package, then Wash the gloves before and after decanting the outer packaging and disposing of it.
It is now certain that the virus will spread world wide.
that for any particular area the numbers will rapidly swell to a peak then equally rapidly subside.
the time period for this, will depend largely on the movement of people to and from and around that area.
It helps for people to isolate themselves as much as possible.
However, were you to see only one other person during your isolation, that one person may have links to literally thousands of possible infected contacts.
It is best to not have direct contact or even close proximity to anyone at all, and maintain at least a meter of personal zone.
Total isolation is virtually impossible.
Wear rubber gloves when accepting deliveries to avoid unnecessary contact. Open the package, then Wash the gloves before and after decanting the outer packaging and disposing of it.
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Saw these at a campsite on my morning stroll, are they the latest in self isolation pods?
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more and more selfish ignorance
sphexx
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You are not very like to get COVID-19I have just been out for a three or four mile walk over the fields looking for remnants of an old light railway line
Keep your eyes peeled and you might see some of the photos I took of my findings
Lunchtime now then wash my clobber that got rather muddy, slipped down an old embankment.
Bit of blood too, had to grab at barbed wire to stop going in the river, all part of the fun
No sense of danger either, another one of my failings, get out there and savour it.
Oh and I wasn't concerned
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