The virus. PPE. Part 1

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There still seems to be so many unknowns. Italy has 200 plus deaths in one day, yet the Diamond Princess cruise ship had only 7 and you would assume at that time of the year most would be pensioners. Could it be that many of Italy's deaths are elderly who were already in hospital with other issues?
Unfortunately I don't think we can rely on the figures from China as the communist government can't be trusted with facts.
 
Peter10d said:
There still seems to be so many unknowns. Italy has 200 plus deaths in one day, yet the Diamond Princess cruise ship had only 7 and you would assume at that time of the year most would be pensioners. Could it be that many of Italy's deaths are elderly who were already in hospital with other issues?
Unfortunately I don't think we can rely on the figures from China as the communist government can't be trusted with facts.
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i keep hearing this “can’t trust China” argument which I understand, but it seems China’s figures (fake?) are being proven correct in other countries over and over...

At which point will people still say Chinese are misreporting? When Italy have the same figures? 80k infected at 3000 deaths? Because they are on course to hit that in about a week.

it seems people keep looking for excuses, for what reason I don’t know. It’s about time people just see the death numbers and hospitalisation numbers as they are. Forget infection numbers, forget mild symptoms numbers, Italy is putting patients in corridors, putting tents up in fields. Those are not Unknowns. Those are known. A dead body is a dead body, a corpse is a corpse. That is known.

This is serious and needs to be taken seriously. Forget China, look closer to home.
 
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Raymond Lin said:
i keep hearing this “can’t trust China” argument which I understand, but it seems China’s figures (fake?) are being proven correct in other countries over and over...

At which point will people still say Chinese are misreporting? When Italy have the same figures? 80k infected at 3000 deaths? Because they are on course to hit that in about a week.

it seems people keep looking for excuses, for what reason I don’t know. It’s about time people just see the death numbers and hospitalisation numbers as they are. Forget infection numbers, forget mild symptoms numbers, Italy is putting patients in corridors, putting tents up in fields. You don’t do that for no reason, this is serious and needs to be taken seriously.
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On the plus side, if the China’s figures are accurate then they seem to be on recovery mode now, so fingers crossed.
 
Raymond Lin said:
i keep hearing this “can’t trust China” argument which I understand, but it seems China’s figures (fake?) are being proven correct in other countries over and over...

At which point will people still say Chinese are misreporting? When Italy have the same figures? 80k infected at 3000 deaths? Because they are on course to hit that in about a week.

it seems people keep looking for excuses, for what reason I don’t know. It’s about time people just see the death numbers and hospitalisation numbers as they are. Forget infection numbers, forget mild symptoms numbers, Italy is putting patients in corridors, putting tents up in fields. You don’t do that for no reason, this is serious and needs to be taken seriously.
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Italy is overwhelmed.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-hospital-bed/607807/

Utterly desperate situation.

Spain is declaring a state of emergency tomorrow. Their infection rate is now soaring and 1 in 35 are dying.

Immensely serious situation. Outside of China, Europe is the virus hotspot (at present).
 
arclight said:
Italy is overwhelmed.

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-hospital-bed/607807/

Utterly desperate situation.

Spain is declaring a state of emergency tomorrow. Their infection rate is now soaring and 1 in 35 are dying.

Immensely serious situation. Outside of China, Europe is the virus hotspot (at present).
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yes I know, hence I am baffled at our tactic. I know the reasoning trying not to flatten it and have it come back twice as bad next winter. They rather let the population infect slowly and get 60% infected so we get a herd immunity effect.

problem with that is with 60 million people, that is going to be a lot of dead people in such a short amount of time and an ENORMOUS amount of sick people in hospital.
 
nilagin said:
Shops are already imposing restrictions.
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I get my shopping delivered by Tesco. I got an email from them tonight. Among other things it advised me to book my shopping slots well ahead of what I normally do because of "demand". They are puting measures in place to curb panic buying.
They will also cater for people who are self isolating (leave the shopping at their door). It will also be possible for the delivery driver to sign the terminal on customer's behalf. All very welcome.
 
arclight said:
I get my shopping delivered by Tesco. I got an email from them tonight. Among other things it advised me to book my shopping slots well ahead of what I normally do because of "demand". They are puting measures in place to curb panic buying.
They will also cater for people who are self isolating (leave the shopping at their door). It will also be possible for the delivery driver to sign the terminal on customer's behalf. All very welcome.
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mom doing my shopping at closing time or midnight to avoid people/crowds and also they are restocking so when I went, the loo roll aisle was full.
 
Ricardodaforce said:
Just read that in Alicante from midnight they are closing all shows, bars, restaurants, cultural events, social events and sports centres till further notice.
Apparently the city centre is like a Sunday.
Decisive action indeed.
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Beaches and public parks will be closed to the public for 15 days from 07:00 CET.
There is a real sense of panic there now.
 
Raymond Lin said:
yes I know, hence I am baffled at our tactic. I know the reasoning trying not to flatten it and have it come back twice as bad next winter. They rather let the population infect slowly and get 60% infected so we get a herd immunity effect.

problem with that is with 60 million people, that is going to be a lot of dead people in such a short amount of time and an ENORMOUS amount of sick people in hospital.
Click to expand...

Im confused, you seem to be saying the that the UK plan is to NOT allow it to flatten out? Can you clarify as it seems to be contradictory?
 
Raymond Lin said:
i keep hearing this “can’t trust China” argument which I understand, but it seems China’s figures (fake?) are being proven correct in other countries over and over...

At which point will people still say Chinese are misreporting? When Italy have the same figures? 80k infected at 3000 deaths? Because they are on course to hit that in about a week.

it seems people keep looking for excuses, for what reason I don’t know. It’s about time people just see the death numbers and hospitalisation numbers as they are. Forget infection numbers, forget mild symptoms numbers, Italy is putting patients in corridors, putting tents up in fields. Those are not Unknowns. Those are known. A dead body is a dead body, a corpse is a corpse. That is known.

This is serious and needs to be taken seriously. Forget China, look closer to home.
Click to expand...

I’m still not sure China is reporting it properly, the amount off lockdown they have had online and the no. Of People who have disappeared after posting online about it or criticising the government is bad.

I’m half way though a thing on YouTube showing lots of footage I hadn’t seen before including there new hospital that they built quickly.. bars on windows, hatches to put food in that could only be opened one side at a time and doors that only opened from the outside [emoji15] this was from one of the builders and he even said it wasn’t a hospital but a prison.. to other videos showing body’s piled up in bag in a vans.

As much as they have it locked down I don’t see how there haven’t been more cases outside Hubei province. The reduction in cases also seems very fast even WHO said they couldn’t be sure it was real no.s.

They seem more bothered about propaganda to show there people and the world it’s all Rosie rather helping or saving the people.They know this is pushing the people closer to trying to over throw the dictatorship than ever before.

I’ve been going there for 12 years and have been during bird flu/ the jasmine protests and know that both of these were removed from public and had ramifications for anyone trying to show them. The past few years it’s started with a lot more communist propaganda about Xi, with billboards and posters everywhere. He is wiping out Mao and having all stuff directed towards him.
 
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Ricardodaforce said:
Looks like my plans to see a bullfight on May 1st or 2nd might not come to fruition.
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Retune said:
You can always watch a bunfight right here.
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Not quite the same is it. A bit of justifiable sarcasm maybe ? He obviously didn't think so or it was lost on him as he's given it a ' like' .

As RF chose to respond to me (not that I mentioned him) in a rather churlish manner ie..'Looks like my plans to see a bullfight May 1st/2nd might not come to fruition' after I cited bullfighting in my post further up the thread re the relationship between humans other forms of life (as we know got this current virus and some previous nasty ones because of that issue) I think the reality of it needs highlighting. Heeding Arclight's (Doug's) gentle hint re my sometimes long posts I'll keep it very brief :)

When I’ve got a bit of time to spare I’m going to see if I can discover why people enjoy watching the baiting and torture of animals. Maybe RF can shed some light on that some time. It must be quite a potent urge to travel the 1218 miles from Cardiff to the Las Ventas arena (Plaza Toros) Madrid or fly.there, approx 2hrs 30. I wonder if the same people who go to these events go to Pamplona in July for the equally barbaric spectacle of the running of the bulls through the narrow streets ? More horrors for the bulls than most people are aware of.It's described by the Independent as ' Apathetic display of human idiocy and cruelty' I'll add..immoral,too.

https://www.independent.co.uk/Voice...l-cruelty-tommy-lee-motley-crue-a7826441.html

Most people,I imagine, are unaware of the torture that goes on two days prior to the bullfight and the bull even has a gel rubbed into its eyes so it can’t see properly. Hardly a level playing field. not that 'm comfortable using a sporting analogy. Many people are also unaware that as well as matadors (translation-killer) who fight standing there are picadors too. They carry two lances and ride blindfolded horses so, as the bull doesn’t differentiate between man and beast, it just sees aggressors, the horses can be badly injured too and, when necessary, are killed out of view of the spectators. Well, horses are different aren’t they ?

https://www.horsetalk.co.nz/2013/03/11/horses-forgotten-victims-of-bullfighting/

From a couple of days prior to the horrendous encounter for bulls to the end . Not for the squeamish http://www.stopbullfighting.org.uk/facts.htm
 
Raymond Lin said:
yes I know, hence I am baffled at our tactic. I know the reasoning trying not to flatten it and have it come back twice as bad next winter. They rather let the population infect slowly and get 60% infected so we get a herd immunity effect.

problem with that is with 60 million people, that is going to be a lot of dead people in such a short amount of time and an ENORMOUS amount of sick people in hospital.
Click to expand...

It feels like there is an inevitability about this. Lock down the country for 4 weeks (with all the financial hardship and long-term economic damage that would cause) and I suspect it would re-emerge again, as it may yet do in China. Lock down for longer and the economic impact will be worse, and IF there are still live infections happening elsewhere in the world then there's every chance it will get imported.

This looks to me like trying to grasp the nettle, but gently and over time. Yes, in the absence of an effective vaccine this is the best way to allow herd immunity to develop. The cost in lives may be huge, but if the disease can be slowed then fewer will die than we're seeing elsewhere in Europe, and with warmer weather may come better survival rates.
 
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pmac said:
I’m still not sure China is reporting it properly, the amount off lockdown they have had online and the no. Of People who have disappeared after posting online about it or criticising the government is bad.

I’m half way though a thing on YouTube showing lots of footage I hadn’t seen before including there new hospital that they built quickly.. bars on windows, hatches to put food in that could only be opened one side at a time and doors that only opened from the outside [emoji15] this was from one of the builders and he even said it wasn’t a hospital but a prison.. to other videos showing body’s piled up in bag in a vans.

As much as they have it locked down I don’t see how there haven’t been more cases outside Hubei province. The reduction in cases also seems very fast even WHO said they couldn’t be sure it was real no.s.

They seem more bothered about propaganda to show there people and the world it’s all Rosie rather helping or saving the people.They know this is pushing the people closer to trying to over throw the dictatorship than ever before.
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Hard to criticise China for propaganda when compared with Trump‘s lies and obfuscations!
The Chinese CP leaders are a nasty lot but generally they do believe in science and are ‘efficient’ once they have to be. You saw the worst of their system at the start and the ‘best’ as they got going. True, they are also plugging the ”American virus“ line but the US started down that road first :(.
 
Donnie said:
Im confused, you seem to be saying the that the UK plan is to NOT allow it to flatten out? Can you clarify as it seems to be contradictory?
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the UK is looking to trying a soft flat, rather than a lockdown to squash it.

except I don’t think a soft flat will work because this virus is contiguous when you have no symptoms.
 
JohnC6 said:
As you’re posting in this thread I assume your mum is in hospital because of the virus ? Hopefully not but if it is I think we’ll soon see more posts like yours. Must be stressful for you.

I‘ve read that schools will be closed next Wednesday.
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Stressful but thank god not the virus.
 
All Premiere league matches off until April 4th ..goes for Euros too and many other sports events. I think April 4th will have to be re-assessed and this season's football is over. A lawyer for football issues said that it could be very costly .Season ticket holders have paid for games they can't watch and on a much lbigger scal TV companies have paid for games they can't televise (Advertising revenue will come into it too).

The Ch4 News Enonomics correspondent painted a grim picture, indeed.

I can't help thinking of all those people who attended the Cheltenham races are now back home...here and abroad. I'm sure The law of probabilities would have it that a fair few were carriers..ie. in the incubation stage.

I think this is going to get a lot worse. Trump has now declared a national emegergency which allolws $50billion to be released. I have a sneaky feeling that today's stock market bounce was premature. Iran has covered up their problem and Islamic pilgrimages still went ahead.. They've stopped that now..and Fridays' Morning prayers. All too late. I think what's happened there could cause another surge. The Mecca pilgrimages were stopped, a week or so ago, thankfully.
 
the best way I can think of putting it at this moment in time is to liken boris and the government as a bunch of neros fiddling as the country burns around them
 
On a lighter and more positive note, it has given me a 'get out of meetings free' card for the foreseeable future. The below is an update from my director.

As you know the situation is evolving rapidly. As of now:

DO NOT ATTEND ANY EXTERNAL MEETINGS – OFFER YOUR AVAILABILITY VIA SKYPE/PHONE
DO NOT INVITE ANYONE IN THE OFFICE FOR BUSINESS RELATED MEETINGS – OFFER SKYPE INSTEAD
NO SITE VISITS
NO FACTORY VISITS
NO TEST LAB VISITS
NO BUSINESS TRAVEL
 
View: https://BANNED/devisridhar/status/1238498152627519488

View: https://BANNED/devisridhar/status/1238546077017571333

https://BANNED/devisridhar/status/1238386113468944384
 
Just heard Prince Philip has died, no idea if it’s to do with this or not or if it’s even true, thought it break the chat up though.
 
Is there any proof that herd immunity will work with this virus? Or that it is like flu and changes every year?

he is betting with people’s lives here betting on that it doesn’t mutate.
 
Raymond Lin said:
Is there any proof that herd immunity will work with this virus? Or that it is like flu and changes every year?

he is betting with people’s lives here betting on that it doesn’t mutate.
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Watching a professor on t.v earlier that seemed to know what he was talking about ,. And he stated that if you have a lockdown and stop it as in China as soon as normality returns and someone with the virus gets back in the whole cycle starts again
 
n0chex said:
Just heard Prince Philip has died, no idea if it’s to do with this or not or if it’s even true, thought it break the chat up though.
Click to expand...
Nothing on news flashes yet ? One for the morning methinks
 
Raymond Lin said:
i keep hearing this “can’t trust China” argument which I understand, but it seems China’s figures (fake?) are being proven correct in other countries over and over...

At which point will people still say Chinese are misreporting? When Italy have the same figures? 80k infected at 3000 deaths? Because they are on course to hit that in about a week.

it seems people keep looking for excuses, for what reason I don’t know. It’s about time people just see the death numbers and hospitalisation numbers as they are. Forget infection numbers, forget mild symptoms numbers, Italy is putting patients in corridors, putting tents up in fields. Those are not Unknowns. Those are known. A dead body is a dead body, a corpse is a corpse. That is known.

This is serious and needs to be taken seriously. Forget China, look closer to home.
Click to expand...

I think looking at just the numbers in isolation is maybe simplistic as there are almost certainly other factors to be taken into consideration such as age demographics, the general health of the population, the frequency of conditions which could make people more or less susceptible to more serious consequences when catching corona, living conditions, social practices and so on.

I may be wrong and the numbers may be right on their own but maybe there are other factors that do make direct number comparisons between different countries or even different regions too simplistic.
 
the black fox said:
the best way I can think of putting it at this moment in time is to liken boris and the government as a bunch of neros fiddling as the country burns around them
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the black fox said:
Watching a professor on t.v earlier that seemed to know what he was talking about ,. And he stated that if you have a lockdown and stop it as in China as soon as normality returns and someone with the virus gets back in the whole cycle starts again
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I think any politician not taking the best medical advice and doing exactly that would be barking. As I said earlier, choosing who to take advice from must be a bit of a headache in itself. Politicians may fall over this and maybe deservedly so but if they fall because they've followed what they thought was the best advice then I'd have a tiny bit of sympathy.
 
Whilst some praise the response of the Chinese they still have not apologised for probably causing a global recession and the deaths of many people world wide. Even worse they are now trying to promote a conspiracy that it was brought to China by the US military!

I think we need to take a long hard look at China and consider 'annexing' them from the world stage; the next time you want to buy something cheap have a look at where it is made and boycott it if it is made in China - very difficult at the moment but if we all spend more on products from civilised societies then we can leave China to face the world alone?
 
DK602 said:
Whilst some praise the response of the Chinese they still have not apologised for probably causing a global recession and the deaths of many people world wide. Even worse they are now trying to promote a conspiracy that it was brought to China by the US military!

I think we need to take a long hard look at China and consider 'annexing' them from the world stage; the next time you want to buy something cheap have a look at where it is made and boycott it if it is made in China - very difficult at the moment but if we all spend more on products from civilised societies then we can leave China to face the world alone?
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Mrs WW's best friend is Chinese and is there at the mo trying to get a flight back to the UK. Social media over there does seem to be full of mad conspiracy theories. I suppose it is all over the world these days.

I do agree that they're a dangerous and murderous regime with a human rights record that should scare us silly.
 
Raymond Lin said:
Is there any proof that herd immunity will work with this virus? Or that it is like flu and changes every year?

he is betting with people’s lives here betting on that it doesn’t mutate.
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Herd immunity will work with every immunogenic version* of an infectious disease.

In the case of this virus, the spike 2 protein seems to be conserved between SARS and this virus, so there's a good chance that immunity to this will confer immunity to related viruses, but if there's significant antigenic changes then that may not always be true.

AFAICS the government ARE listening to the scientific advice, and are trying to arrange things so that a large proportion of the population can catch the disease without most of those who are most susceptible dying and to do it gradually so that NHS resources don't completely crumble. And at the same time try to ensure the British economy isn't completely devastated, which might also end up destroying a lot of lives. They might not succeed, but at the moment it looks like an intelligent gamble.

Someone was asking earlier about private testing and why it wasn't available. I heard this week that there's a shortage worldwide of Taq polymerase that's needed for the PCR based test kits (i.e. all the kits presently available) and it's unlikely many kits will be available through private clinics. Also once the virus is well and truly out there in the population at large there is no benefit to testing people - there aren't resources to track contacts and you would have to test EVERYONE on a daily basis to know who's infected and who is clear. It seems likely to me that we've passed the point where that will be useful, and so delay rather than containment is the best option.

I know this is distressing a lot of people who want to see *something* being done - this is the something, but it's just not very spectacular at this stage.

*I'm bound to get picked up about this by someone - a few diseases like Dengue fever can be potentiated by circulating antibody that aids viral infection. First time round are flu like symptoms, but sometimes the second infection results in a nasty haemorrhagic fever that can be fatal. Fortunately this is relatively rare.
 
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ancient_mariner said:
I know this is distressing a lot of people who want to see *something* being done - this is the something, but it's just not very spectacular at this stage.
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I think one danger is that our leaders could buckle, pander to public opinion and introduce measure that whilst pleasing the public and the media today may be against the medical advice they're getting and could lead to worse effects.
 
woof woof said:
I think one danger is that our leaders could buckle pander to opinion and introduce measure that whilst pleasing the public and the media today may be against the medical advice they're getting and could lead to worse effects.
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It's a possibility. At this stage it's no disadvantage that there is a large conservative majority, provided they all stick to policy and don't break ranks. If Boris wants to be re-elected next time round then he's going to have to pull off something 'against all odds' - crumbling would be fatal for both him and the country.
 
n0chex said:
Just heard Prince Philip has died, no idea if it’s to do with this or not or if it’s even true, thought it break the chat up though.
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What’s your reference? Where did you check it? Nothing on the news tickers 40 mins after you posted so it seems untrue.
 
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

has anyone looked at the numbers?

how is Asia in general kept a lid on this so well, ignore infection rate but look at deaths. I know south Korea looks like they got lots infected but they also tested a lot more. Look at deaths only and Spain has passed S Korea, almost doubled!

singapore has 0!!!

Ehhhhh there is a lesson here somewhere. What are we doing wrong?
 
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ancient_mariner said:
I know this is distressing a lot of people who want to see *something* being done - this is the something, but it's just not very spectacular at this stage.
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Spectacular or not, if it works then such a seemingly well thought-out, scientific approach could well save a lot of lives... if it doesn't, then I'm sure there will be enough survivors with sufficient 20-20 hindsight to point the bony finger of blame at those they consider responsible.

I'm glad I'm not one of those who has to make such a decision. Godspeed to those with that unenviable task.
 
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Raymond Lin said:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

has anyone looked at the numbers?

how is Asia in general kept a lid on this so well, ignore infection rate but look at deaths. I know south Korea looks like they got lots infected but they also tested a lot more. Look at deaths only and Spain has passed S Korea, almost doubled!

singapore has 0!!!

Ehhhhh there is a lesson here somewhere. What are we doing wrong?
Click to expand...

I still think there could be more to this than looking at the numbers and only the numbers could indicate. For example in some countries the elderly and more at risk are perhaps more tied to their homes than they are in some other countries. For better or worse that could affect the death rate as could wealth, health, diet, social factors and even the weather.
 
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