Camera sales set to plunge, say Canon

I do understand that phone pictures can very often be good enough but many of us here want something beyond both the experience and the result you get with a smartphone. I think that one big problem is that "we" are a tiny minority these days.

Think this really sums it up well Alan!

I love the actual taking of the picture as much as anything else. The camera has to 'feel right' and be enjoyable to use - the more involvement I have 'taking the picture' the more fun I have; this is something a smartphone does not give at the present and I can't ever see a smartphone being nice ergonomically as a camera?
 
The universe, or at least the progression of human knowledge, just doesn't work like that. Why didn't Fox-Talbert just invent the DSLR with 10 FPS and almost instant AF?

Possibly because Fox-Talbot was born first?:LOL::LOL::LOL:
 
It's also worth noting that the interview with Canon's CEO was for Nikkei which is a business/finance website - basically to reassure investors than Canon are fully aware of market trends and making positive moves for the future.
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=ja&tl=en&u=https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGKKZO40439650U9A120C1TJ3000/

Edit: maybe he should have been more cautious for readers like us, but what was conspicuous by its absence was any reference as to how Canon was going to address their current camera customers. Cue interviews from Nikon and Sony telling us how the camera business has a great future LOL
 
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Think this really sums it up well Alan!

I love the actual taking of the picture as much as anything else. The camera has to 'feel right' and be enjoyable to use - the more involvement I have 'taking the picture' the more fun I have; this is something a smartphone does not give at the present and I can't ever see a smartphone being nice ergonomically as a camera?
That is becoming less and less of a concern for most people who couldn't care less about the more esoteric aspects of photography but just want to get photos whenever they want and probably only look at them on their smartphones or print a few to postcard size to keep in their wallets or purses.
Or put them on Instagram!
 
That is becoming less and less of a concern for most people who couldn't care less about the more esoteric aspects of photography but just want to get photos whenever they want and probably only look at them on their smartphones or print a few to postcard size to keep in their wallets or purses.
Or put them on Instagram!

I'm not so sure I agree Peter.

The question is really - is Photography as a hobby growing or shrinking?

There has been a massive explosion in the number of people taking photographs but I wouldn't say the majority of these people look on photography as being a hobby; most are taking them because smartphone have made it easy to take them.

These people in the past would never have considered buying an SLR but may have bought a 126mm compact etc.

I'd love to see figures but I think there are more people pursuing photography as a proper hobby and I still think it is the same as 30 yrs ago; they will want a 'proper' camera.

Smartphones make it incredibly easy & cheap to record images and everyone has one - but not everyone considers photography as a hobby.

I really think the tail off in camera sales is exactly like the tail off in the smart phone market; the technology steps between models is a lot smaller.
 
That is becoming less and less of a concern for most people who couldn't care less about the more esoteric aspects of photography but just want to get photos whenever they want and probably only look at them on their smartphones or print a few to postcard size to keep in their wallets or purses.
Or put them on Instagram!

Another thing - the world is now awash with images, billions and billions of them. Decent photos are no longer a novelty, they're ten a penny, 99% disposable and the 'value' of photography has plummeted.

I really have to try hard to take a memorable image these days, and that usually involves everything I can throw at it to differentiate from an iPhone snap. Flash almost always, maybe studio, any focal length except 28mm, shallow DoF, post-processing etc etc.
 
I think most smartphone camera users are trying to share an experience. They don't want a whole load of technical stuff, knobs and dials or processing. They just want the experience shared NOW. DSLR users are a completely different market and are trying to perfect an image.
Most smartphone pictures I see are from women, but most photography enthusiasts are men.
 
I used to DJ trance music back in the days of vinyl and it was a proper art that was difficult to learn - beat matching fuzzy bass lines at 140+ BMP isn't easy and you need to be able to do that before any "artistry" is thrown in. Then CD and MP3 mixers started to come in and all the vinyl users said it was cheating (as elements of it are much easier - no beat matching for a start) and that it just wasn't the same. Now everyone uses digital mixing and no-one complains about the quality of the music or the artistry, as that still exists just in different (and often better) ways. And I can't use a digital mixer :ROFLMAO:

To paraphrase Darwin, it isn't the fittest that survive, it's those that fail to adapt.

And then of course, 20 years later vinyl trance nights are a thing...
I've DJ'd since the mid 90's, mainly 'rave', jungle and D&B but then added trance to my catalogue in the late 90's and early 00's. I agree that an art form has been lost, and still prefer vinyl. I don't think it should be called DJing anymore tbh as they are no longer Disc Jockeys, but more "live effects and sampling artists", but I guess that term wouldn't catch on :LOL: What I would say though is that what a lot of modern "DJ's" do is still pretty talented, but it's a completely different 'art form' from what it was. I guess good modern photography can be viewed the same, there's still a talent there but the art form is completely different and more reliant on software.
 
Interesting some one mentioned "peak stuff" as I think there is a lot of truth there.
Also think people are spending more on smart phones and expect them to do more.
I also think second hand sales are very buoyant for cameras and lenses, I don't think the market needs much more development its pretty blood good now.
I think Canon are right, I think the future of the DSLR will decline, size matters now and that's why m4/3rds has won over so many people.
 
I think a lot of the cameras today can do most of the stuff people would ever want to do with a camera. So in 2010 you'd probably want to upgrade a 2-3 year old camera. Nowadays I'm not really sure.

I think nowadays most people just taking photos of their kids and vacations and whatnot, they just buy a camera and that's done.

Also, I do think camera equipment has become quite expensive, at least looks like most manufacturers are concentrating on high end gear.
 
Peak stuff, images overload, no better than a smartphone, slow, cumbersome, complicated, not connected, expensive... there's a long list of negatives to owning and using a proper camera.

And cameras are not cool anymore, they're for (old) geeks and (marginal) weirdos :(
 
Peak stuff, images overload, no better than a smartphone, slow, cumbersome, complicated, not connected, expensive... there's a long list of negatives to owning and using a proper camera.

And cameras are not cool anymore, they're for (old) geeks and (marginal) weirdos :(


There is nothing cooler than a TLR Rollei Richard!

Even teenagers when they see one go 'ahhh - that's soooo cool!' :p
 
I prefer working with a proper camera, I have used the camera on my phone, but I find it difficult to use, I don't know where it is focussed, what shutter or aperture, and I'm never sure if it's actually taken the shot, just a horrible shooting experience, might be Ok for this is me in the pub for faceache or whatever but that's not me.
 
There is nothing cooler than a TLR Rollei Richard!

Even teenagers when they see one go 'ahhh - that's soooo cool!' :p

Last year's model is not cool, but 50+ years old is. Real retro is back, and classic quality seems to have found new value in all sorts of markets. I have a Rollei TLR (my dad's) and it still works (y)
 
I have a Rollei TLR (my dad's) and it still works (y)

:D:cool: They are wonderful - it's my camera of choice at the moment; a 1960's Rolleicord - the images and use of it gives me so much pleasure and so many people want to talk to you about it when using it - it's a great 'ice breaker'.
 
Thom Hogan has responded to Canon's news - he's the guy mentioned earlier who is generally regarded as the authority on how the market is moving:
https://dslrbodies.com/newsviews/ni...-nikon-canon/the-canon-doomsday-proclama.html

I'm not exactly sure what figures he's quoting (total sales, exports from Japan?) but the steady and continuing downward trend is not in doubt, even if he thinks it won't fall as quickly as Canon predicts.

But where will it end? That's the question, and he offers no hope on that score, save for an implication that interchangeable-lens camera sales might level off at around the same volume as film SLRs were pre-digital. In which case, I'd say that was little more than a guess - history is no guide to the future here and there are a lot of new dynamics at play, some of which nobody knows the answer to. It could be better or worse - but it's certainly not going to be good.
 
Thom Hogan has responded to Canon's news - he's the guy mentioned earlier who is generally regarded as the authority on how the market is moving:
https://dslrbodies.com/newsviews/ni...-nikon-canon/the-canon-doomsday-proclama.html

I'm not exactly sure what figures he's quoting (total sales, exports from Japan?) but the steady and continuing downward trend is not in doubt, even if he thinks it won't fall as quickly as Canon predicts.

But where will it end? That's the question, and he offers no hope on that score, save for an implication that interchangeable-lens camera sales might level off at around the same volume as film SLRs were pre-digital. In which case, I'd say that was little more than a guess - history is no guide to the future here and there are a lot of new dynamics at play, some of which nobody knows the answer to. It could be better or worse - but it's certainly not going to be good.
'Real cameras' will likely be reserved for the serious enthusiast and professionals, for the rest of the consumers mobile phones will be enough, especially as they continue to advance in features such as offering multiple optical focal lengths and 'professional looking' background blur.
 
With the advent of small portable drones fitted with cameras and the march of AI I look forward to the time when I can simply tell my photo-drone to get me some prize winning shots and send it on its way while I sit at home and watch re-runs of Terminator!
That is not quite I meant, I meant taking several photos at once for an auto stack like Olympus do.
Saying that I like the idea of drone taking photos however there can be problems see below.

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/03/25/drone_slayer_rules_in_court/

"
An appeals court has snubbed a drone owner's demand for $1,500 compensation from a furious dad who blew the flying gizmo out of the sky when it hovered over his family.

In July 2015, William Merideth, 47, was at home in Hillview, Kentucky, America, when his daughter came in from sunbathing in the garden to say there was a drone buzzing overhead. As a firm believer in his Second Amendment rights, Merideth loaded up his shotgun with bird shot, waited until the camera-fitted quadcopter came over his home, and then took it down with a single shot – which bought the drone's operators running.
"
 
That is where we are now. Most people don't walk about with a dslr. Unless there is a step change in capability on compacts (Think RX100 but smaller, properly styled and under 100 pounds) then no one is going to bother with them.

I don't see why camera manufacturers can't put some of the processing options that mobiles use into their cameras as firmware updates (bolt on modules that they can charge for). This would be a step change in approach from selling hardware to software.
 
Peak stuff, images overload, no better than a smartphone, slow, cumbersome, complicated, not connected, expensive... there's a long list of negatives to owning and using a proper camera.

And cameras are not cool anymore, they're for (old) geeks and (marginal) weirdos :(

im not so sure about that. ive been to a couple of organised camera events that WEX have put in the last year and the average age was definitely in the low to mid 20's with most rocking the latest mirrorless gear.
 
'Real cameras' will likely be reserved for the serious enthusiast and professionals, for the rest of the consumers mobile phones will be enough, especially as they continue to advance in features such as offering multiple optical focal lengths and 'professional looking' background blur.
I agree with this, but I have a feeling, in a way, that is how it is already.

In my circle of neighbors, family and friends, I know only one other person, who has an actual camera. Most of them still believe that if you want "real" pictures, you need a "real" camera, but they're not willing to spend money on one, or carry it, or learn how to use it properly. Photography simply isn't important enough for them.

What I'm getting at is, we don't really know how big that pool of enthusiasts and professionals is. If they're selling a camera today in 2019, chances are they are already selling it to a photography enthusiast.
 
I agree with this, but I have a feeling, in a way, that is how it is already.

In my circle of neighbors, family and friends, I know only one other person, who has an actual camera. Most of them still believe that if you want "real" pictures, you need a "real" camera, but they're not willing to spend money on one, or carry it, or learn how to use it properly. Photography simply isn't important enough for them.

What I'm getting at is, we don't really know how big that pool of enthusiasts and professionals is. If they're selling a camera today in 2019, chances are they are already selling it to a photography enthusiast.

Same as me, out of my group of friends I’m the only one who uses a “real camera”. They do own entry level cameras with kits lenses from years ago but they have been relegated to the back of the cupboard. Camera phone is good enough and far more convenient.

At the moment the most manufacturers are going the high end route as that’s where they can make a bigger profit but you can only do that for so long. I think we will see some manufacturers leaving the market weather they want to or not.
 
At the moment the most manufacturers are going the high end route as that’s where they can make a bigger profit but you can only do that for so long. I think we will see some manufacturers leaving the market weather they want to or not.

I'm not really sure about this. These are all Japanese companies, and I'm not sure they'd be willing to admit failure.

For example, Pentax & Ricoh lives in a little world of its own, and has been happily doing so for quite a while, with under 2% market share. If they haven't given up, I don't see any other camera manufacturer going out of business.
 
The requirement to have a computer to process images must be a factor too. Phone: snap, send, post online, forget, lose.

Many of us grew up filing negatives and needing a way to convert the negatives into positives. So a proper camera doesn’t mess with process.

Having said that, I don’t think proper cameras are going to go away, just lessen in numbers. Those numbers will come from the ‘take it out the box and leave it it ‘iAuto’ or ‘P’ with the lens hood on the wrong way round’ brigade. They’ll be using phones.
 
I do not see this fall in sales as any sort of problem or at all unexpected. it is a return to the normal state of affairs.
Sales have been far higher than usual because of the development and changeover to Digital photography.

It is now entering the mature market stage. where there are a number of cameras filling just about every photographic niche and need.
However just as during the mature analogue phase, there will always be new models coming forward as needs, fashion, society and technology changes. But these changes likely to be more measured now that both Phone and cameras mature.

The market place is never saturated. Cameras wear out, accidents happen and the population grows, ages and is replaced by fresh faces with new desires, needs and interests. everything goes in a cycle. everything changes.

There will, it seems, always be a desire for image making, and photography in all its forms is part of that mix.

I am happy to predict that Photography is health and not about to die.
But change it will.
Time and time again.

Canon might fear for its own future, but it only needs to do so if it fails keeps pace with our future desires and demands.
The British camera industry failed, not because of lack of demand for cameras, but because it failed to change with the times, and offer what people wanted and at the price they could afford.
However, even today we still make world leading specialist lenses for science and the film and TV industry.

Camera will once again attain the position of a commodity, like Tv's and washing machines. People will still buy them, not just because new models become available, but because it is something they need, for what ever reason. The recent regrowth of the second hand market, indicates that the broad spectrum of needs can be fulfilled, to a large extent, by existing models, Though the pleasure of buying new and the best, will always define the top tier of the market
 
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I'm not really sure about this. These are all Japanese companies, and I'm not sure they'd be willing to admit failure.

For example, Pentax & Ricoh lives in a little world of its own, and has been happily doing so for quite a while, with under 2% market share. If they haven't given up, I don't see any other camera manufacturer going out of business.

They might not want to admit failure but if your running at a loss then shareholders will have something to say about it.
 
They might not want to admit failure but if your running at a loss then shareholders will have something to say about it.

There are many Japanese companies that haven't seen a profit since JC was a lad. The way they operate just wouldn't be sustainable in the UK, at all. They may not be able to carry on haemorrhaging money forever but they'll certainly give it a good go.
 
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This is seriously bad news for enthusiasts. It will likely mean that our cameras and lenses will be developed more slowly, and cost more.
Won't this also be defined by the market. If costs of equipment go up then the market costs of the output ie photos be that wedding,landscapes, portraits etc unless the quality delivered to the customer. So if the market quality is defined by those with say the latest sony and those with olympus, nikon, canon cannot compete then there is a shift to those.

However this is not the case as very successful photographers are using 4-5 year old kit and the quality comes from them moreso than the camera.

In which case if the costs go up people won't upgrade (unless their business has zero financial constraints) which might force the manufactures into a rethink. Of course all this doesn't happen over night.
 
They might not want to admit failure but if your running at a loss then shareholders will have something to say about it.

Yeah, but for virtually all companies camera equipment is tied in with lots of other businesses. So it isn't really as simple as "this division loses money, lets axe it". For example, Olympus camera division lost money for over a decade and they were perfectly OK with it. That's because their most popular camera is an endoscope.
 
That is not quite I meant, I meant taking several photos at once for an auto stack like Olympus do.
Saying that I like the idea of drone taking photos however there can be problems see below.

https://www.theregister.co.uk/2017/03/25/drone_slayer_rules_in_court/

"
An appeals court has snubbed a drone owner's demand for $1,500 compensation from a furious dad who blew the flying gizmo out of the sky when it hovered over his family.

In July 2015, William Merideth, 47, was at home in Hillview, Kentucky, America, when his daughter came in from sunbathing in the garden to say there was a drone buzzing overhead. As a firm believer in his Second Amendment rights, Merideth loaded up his shotgun with bird shot, waited until the camera-fitted quadcopter came over his home, and then took it down with a single shot – which bought the drone's operators running.
"

MMM - sounds like I might need to defend my photo-drone:

https://www.businessinsider.com/an-...s-in-the-middle-of-the-woods-2015-7?r=US&IR=T

:LOL::LOL::LOL:
 
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