So, here's the surprising conclusion to my compelling tale... I bought the 70-300 VR. Yes yes yes I know.... here's why:
I went to visit Greys of Westminster today and spent some time in their shop, comparing lenses on my D90. Now, this was all handheld and the weather was overcast at that time. Not a good f2.8 weather so I tested on f4 which I assumed would be better anyway.
At first I had a look at an 80-200 AF-D. Built like a tank. Took some test shots at f2.8 and f4 (shutter was something like 1/160-1/200), I'd say the environment wasn't ideal light-wise, but realistic for what I'd like to use it for. No monopod/tripod, left that at home. Result: sobering. I was expecting the world from that lens (and I assume on a tripod it probably is as sharp as people say) but instead it grew very soft towards 200mm.
So I tried the exact same shots with the 80-200 AF push/pull (I admit I actually like that setup) and it was a similar picture, although it was sharper than the AF-D.
Now I just wanted something to compare them with so out of interest I asked him to get a 70-300 VR. And I am not kidding: _all_ the shots were better. And let's not talk about the focus speed on the D90, as this one is AF-S. Also it is of course so much lighter.
Then, cause I wanted to see it it was really VR that did it all, I had a shot at the 70-200 VR/2.8. Oh my god. What a lens. I LOVE it. Sharp, quick, everything. Oh and bulky and heavy of course. But I would go as far as to say it is worth its insane price. This was just for comparison though, as I neither want nor can spend that money at the moment.
Then had a play with the 35mm/1.8 and I love that one too. On my list now.
So, in the end I spent about 6 hours shooting with the 70-300 and I don't regret it one bit. Easy to handhold, stable, sharp around 200mm, nice bokeh at f5.6, I really can't complain at that price.
So, if Nikon decides to grace us with a VRII version of the 70-200 I'll start looking for a used VR version, until then it is going to be the slower zooms (12-24, 18-105VR, 70-300VR) and prime lenses for me.
I'm not sure if the test shots are of any great use to anyone, they were taken handheld so they would only be as good as my hand, which of course is a grade of measure for me but might be useless to anyone else. The guy at Grey's agreed with me about the softness though.
Oh, and as a final word, Grey's is a beautiful shop and the service was great. As much as I like saving a buck from Hong Kong, it's worth supporting these kind of shops.