Impossible to say.
When the manufacturers say that a shutter mechanism is rated to (say) 100,000 actuations, they don't generally give us enough information to draw any statistical inferences. I think it would be reasonable to assume it means that at least 50% of the cameras will reach 100,000, but we don't know whether 80% will, or 99% will, or how many will fail at less than 20,000, or what.
There's a useful analogy in the field of weights and measures. If you buy a bottle of beer which nominally contains 500ml, what does that actually mean? If you don't know anything else about the distribution, it wouldn't mean anything more than the shutter life estimates. However, most manufacturers in the EU will use the "e" mark, and if you see that on a bottle of beer you know immediately that (1) the average contents will be at least 500ml; (2) less than 5% of bottles will be under 485ml; and (3) no bottles will be under 470ml. It's a shame that camera manufacturers don't do something similar.