How long does the "DSLR" Have left...

Phil V said:
Did you read my post?

What's the point in buying something that's 95% as good?:wacky:

Unless for you the benefits outweigh the disadvantages - I appreciate for some people this is already the case.

When they are better than DSLR's it'll be a simple decision, whilst they're 95% as good as a DSLR....... well that's a simple decision too:)
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Beyond this I'd question the wisdom of "buying into the ground floor" with mirrorless. Its still an evolving market afterall which naturally means there are likely to be winners and losers just as there were in the shift to DSLR's.

If I had to pick a lens mount that I believed was still going to be directly supported(not via an adaptor) in 5 years time I'd still go with EOS or the F mount rather than any mirrorless alternative.

As you say I believe lens size is really going to be a key issue in how the market evolves. I'm sure theres some potential for mirrorless systems for all sensor sizes but I suspect the market will become more limated as they are so lens size increases.
 
Very interesting thread :)
I don't believe that csc will replace the crop format totally
It may well become a niche for wildlife and sports photographers
i think that canon and Nikon will always be making cameras like the 7D (and whatever the Nikon equivalent is:) ) but the budget dslr may disappear
 
Anyone interested in some actual sales figures, apart from any disagreements posted earlier, should look at Thom Hogan here http://www.sansmirror.com/newsviews/bcns-preliminary-2012-numbe.html

They're the lastest sales figures for 2012 from Japan, just published by BCN, including this year's Xmas figures. This is the key quote: "Mirrorless cameras continue to be almost half the market for interchangeable lens cameras in Japan, with DSLRs taking the other half."

Olympus leads the way with 29.8% of CSC sales, from Panasonic's 23.6% - both MFT format. Nikon J1 is top selling CSC.

Other interesting figures include Canon leading in overall interchangeable-lens camera sales, ie including both CSCs and DSLRs, with 28.6% total market share, from Nikon's 25%. Considering Canon has had zero presence in the CSC sector for most of this year, and Nikon has the top-selling CSC camera, Canon must be extremely pleased with their position in DSLRs.
 
I was having a play with a friend's gripped OM-D with the panny 17-35 f2.8 the other day, then another friend plonked his gripped D700 with 28-300 on the table.

It looks like an antique! Like when I sit my work laptop (a Lenovo W510 lump), next to my personal laptop (an ultrabook with vastly better spec) There's no doubt that mirrors will go the way of the dodo, they are a relic of the film age and will be gone in a few years in the consumer space.
 
Ironic that the camera that looks so modern to you is actually a camera based heavily on the looks of a camera made 40 years ago.

But I agree, in the low end consumer market they will dwindle away and it is clearly already on the cards. How many years is the unknown and even for a budget consumer there is no risk in buying a DSLR today.
 
The Thom Hogan link is quite interesting. I predict the current trend will continue, with most mirrorless sales being entry level or discounted older models. I suspect sales will eat into those of superzooms and larger compacts, whilst smaller compacts will lose market share to mobile phones.

As for DSLRs, I can't see much changing for a while. I have owned a whole bunch of cameras, including several mirrorless bodies (Nex-3, Nex-5, Nex-5n, G1, GF1, NX11). I couldn't get on with any of the mirrorless bodies - they were just too small to hold yet too big to pocket due to the lenses, had poor ISO performance (Nex bodies excluded) and the EVFs gave me a headache.

I still own an NX11 but haven't touched it since I bought my 6D. Wifey, however, would love a white V1 without the lens sticking out of the front :D
 
manualfocus-g said:
whilst smaller compacts will lose market share to mobile phones.
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can we adjust that to smaller compacts with small sensors?
I suspect that RX100 alikes (i.e. larger sensor compacts) are going to grow as a market sector.

. Wifey, however, would love a white V1 without the lens sticking out of the front :D
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RX100?
 
HoppyUK said:
This is the key quote: "Mirrorless cameras continue to be almost half the market for interchangeable lens cameras in Japan, with DSLRs taking the other half."
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That is what I said...

18-270 said:
The CSC or "Mirrorless interchangeable lens camera" (CSC is a British term, Jessops introduced it) is almost half the sales over in the land of the rising sun (About 42%) Here/Europe it's just under 20% (About 17%) But it's climbing quickly!:
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I guess it also depends what you shoot for - if its just for personal pleasure and you rarely enlarge beyond A4 then you probably don't really need a DSLR but for professional work and big enlargements, a big sensor will always have an edge over a smaller sensor I would have thought, otherwise why bother with Hasselblads and digital backs if a DSLR is as good?
 
They will be finished by the end of the year :)

So send me your old outdated D4s and 600mm f4 I am willing to pay postage :D
 
I find the main thing with these "DSLR replacement" cameras is that they don't have a proper optical viewfinder - either no viewfinder at all so you shoot like a tourist at arms length or and electronic viewfinder which can no way match a "real" optical viewfinder, at least with current technology.
 
I've not read all the comments on this thread so I'm not sure what's been said/not said. My own opinion is that I think APSC DSLR's will probably disappear and that all DSLR's will eventually become FF models, especially as the technology gets cheaper.

The thing I'd be more interested to read into is whether MF sized sensors will be the norm for prosumers at about the same price that mid range FF DSLR's are at now. That is to say £2500 for a DSLR which has a 48mm x 36mm sensor. As for the lenses needed that's another can of worms.
 
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Due to the exponential costs associated with the increase of size in the sensor I can't see how an MF sized sensor would get into a £2500 camera.

I am not convinced just FF DLSR will be left as the jump from non-DSLR to DSLR would be too great and there will always be some middle ground users/demand.
 
boliston said:
I find the main thing with these "DSLR replacement" cameras is that they don't have a proper optical viewfinder - either no viewfinder at all so you shoot like a tourist at arms length or and electronic viewfinder which can no way match a "real" optical viewfinder, at least with current technology.
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So to shoot at arms length without a view finder but a screen makes you a tourist?
I'll remember that next time im squinting into the ground glass of my 4x5 or peering into the hood top of a bronica
 
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