LaForet: Dedicated Cameras are Coming to an End for all but PROS

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I am sharing this on every photo forum I am a member of as we are either working or hobbyist photographer who have probably bought a mirrorless/SLR camera. I find it a fun topic to talk about, assuming you aren't selling these still cameras.

Vincent LaForet was the first to promote the coming of HD video onto SLRs making his thoughts on the ongoing decline of still cameras have weight.

Without further adieu read this blog post below.

http://blog.vincentlaforet.com/2015...camera-is-coming-to-and-end-for-all-but-pros/

Note to Vincent: Get someone to proof read for you. ;)

This video below expounds LaForet's thoughts with some rounded numbers


Here are some more precise numbers to supplement the blog and video.

http://lensvid.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/03/Infographic-1920-1200-ver-2-0.jpg

Source: http://lensvid.com/gear/lensvid-exclusive-what-happened-to-the-photography-industry-in-2013/

Production, Shipment of Digital Still Cameras in 2014

42.8 million - still cameras covering point & shoots, mirrorless and SLRs
- 29.28 million point & shoots
- 3.17 million mirrorless
- 10.32 million SLRs

Production, Shipment of Digital Still Cameras in 2013

61.0 million - still cameras covering point & shoots, mirrorless and SLRs
- 44.19 million point & shoots
- 3.18 million mirrorless
- 13.64 million SLRs

Production, Shipment of Interchangeable Lenses in 2014

22.3 million lenses covering crop & full frame
- 5.7 million full frame lenses
- 16.6 million crop lenses

Production, Shipment of Interchangeable Lenses in 2013

25.88 million22.3 million lenses covering crop & full frame
- 6.01 million full frame lenses
- 19.87 million crop lenses

vs

1.3 billion smartphones shipped in 2014

Of which 1 billion are Android and 193 million are iPhones

Makes me wish I used all the money I spent on Canon & Apple gear went into Apple stock at $7.00/share in 2002.

What makes the smartphone market so big is that a sizeable chunk of smartphone users are on contract so they get upgraded phones every 12, 24 or 36 months. These upgrades are "pushed" on them rather than us working/hobbyist photographers "pulling" these upgrades with our still cameras.

I also think just like the PC shipping figures still cameras are either abandoned in favor of smartphones/tablets or upgraded based on need (the subject they're photographing needs XYZ feature or the camera broken down and isn't worth repairing).

Less than 1% of those buying a still camera of any sort buys a SLR. The 1% of the 1% of SLR buyers buys a double grip pro body like a Canon 1D X or Nikon D4S.

It puts into perspective where/who we are today. Doesn't it?

With this in mind do you find yourself thinking perhaps the next upgrade you will skip all together?
 
You cant sensibly compare DSLR / mirrorless camera sales or use to that of smartphones.

For example, every chav has a smartphone, which they can use abuse each other on FB, to snap chat and tweet away but I doubt they're too interested in the lighting and composition of their middle finger selfies. They're given out for free by the networks and soon I'm sure they'll be giving them out in the job centre.

Sure, smartphones will always outsell dedicated cameras and they have been outselling them for years (this isnt new), but lets not assume all smartphone users are interested in photography and most, had they not received a 'free' camera with their phone probably would never own a camera.

A smartphone is a mass market product, the worlds biggest. They're practically disposable items these days.

High end DSLR kit is for a specific type of market.

I think your title should read for "all but photographers"?!
 
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You also need to look at it historically.
In the days of film, most people (not everybody) had a camera and of those very few would have had an SLR.
Of the people that did own a camera im sure very few upgraded and only bought a new camera if the old one broke.

Now everyone has a phone and most people have a camera phone and its good enough for them, for a lot of people this will replace the need for a compact.
As stated the network contracts ensure that they get a new camera every 18-25 months

A lot of the enthusiasts will have bought a body and many will be happy with that and so the number of new SLRs sold will be decreasing year on year till it reaches its steady state.

What would be useful is to compare sales of SLRs from just before the digital age to now (1995-2000ish at a rough guess), im sure the numbers will show a massive increase in SLR sales from then to now
 
In a way it is very good even if some of us will have to pay a little more when the time comes to upgrade. The Rebels may go away and so there will be less competition from uncle Bob's and hopefully stock market will slowly return back to "normal" over a few years.

It won't be too much different from lighting kits in the worst case scenario. There is pretty much plenty to go round
 
This video is a pretty interesting watch but i'm not sure i agree with all the conclusion.

The principle point is that we need camera to be "fun" and "easy to use". He is showing that the industry is going in the wrong way with the example of a mirror-less camera with a lot of button...

I think he forgot to mentioned that the market is split between two very different market:
-people that want to click on one button and the machine does everything for them
-people that want to be in control

For the first group of people, smartphone are likely becoming good enough for their need and has mentioned even their 3-4 years old kid can use the camera. I think the camera market will loose more and more of these clients for which a smartphone is good enough and easy enough has well has always being in their pocket. Why carry an extra electronic device? I don't see any way camera manufacturers could re-conquer this market.

For the second group of people, we do not want the camera to do everything for use so we still want all these controls. Different brand have different menu but that doesn't explain the decline in sale.

In the middle they will be people of both group looking into advanced compact camera which features advanced mode.

I can't explain why the dslr market shrink after the 2012 pic. But i don't think the shrinkage is due to being not fun and not easy to use. Maybe photography is a hobby and can be seen influence by society trend that this analysis is not trying to look into. He suggest for exemple that camera manufacturers drop patents and work on a common menu/lens mount/raw format... Which i would say yes and no to.

I think his analysis are a bit too simplistic:
-what about the sales of dslr in the uk, is the curve shows the same 2012 spike? compared to wordwide sales?
-what about the influence of emergence of richer country as new market has an expension of the market?
-what about the difference between the pro and the amateur market?
-what about the sale of dslr vs the number of people which consider photography has a hobby?
-...
 
Smartphones were always going to eat in to Point and Shoot sales, but few people will ever consider replacing their 5D's / D800's etc with an iPhone.

2013 was a very good year for DSLR sales, driven mostly by late 2012 launches of D600's, D800's, 5D3's, 6D's. 2014 lacked the whole new product buzz, so sales tailed off. Apple also sells more phones immediately after launch than they do mid way through the products life. That's why there is always a new shiny slightly upgraded iphone just around the corner.
 
I also think the numbers are a little misleading as correct me if I'm wrong 2013 was quite a year for new camera models I seem to think it was the first full year of shipments when it comes to Canon 5D3 and 1DX and Nikon D800 and D4 so it's possible upgrades will have sqwed the numbers a little...

I'd love to see a historical look at sales figures, guess it will be interesting to see the 2015 sales figures

Personality I think there's a few to many caviets in that article but I do agree that in general the smart phones will kill off the majority of the PAS market...
 
Mobile phones and DSLR cameras are very different things. Yes the camera on a smartphone may 'save' people from buying a compact, but the only compact they were ever going to be buying would have most likely been a low end model. People that were going to buy a higher end compact, a mirrorless camera or a DSLR will still buy those cameras. The camera manufacturers will just go back to producing what's going to sell, and if that means less cheap compacts clogging up the bottom of the market and a need to focus on what their core market is wanting then I really don't see that as a bad thing.
 
It may also be a mistake to assume the upgrade cycle for mobile phones will be the same in 5-10 years, not that this will have much impact on market saturation and the number of people replacing point and shoots.
 
Statisticians and their figures.

Back in 2008 I couldn't find anyone in the camera business who regarded the economy as just collapsing and they were extremely bullish about prospects and their sales. Roughly since then we have seen Jessops and Jacobs disappear. Looking at the bigger picture the photographic industry has been on a roll since the mass market started to convert to digital and there are fewer and fewer film only photographers who have not made the move. (rightly or wrongly). So having sold to everyone who wanted one, we see declining sales. What a surprise. But don't forget these people now own a digital camera and some but not all will upgrade to a more recent offering in time, just not at the rate of camera phone sales. Different market altogether. The movie market will also expand. Who would have predicted the small resurgence of film a couple of years ago? But the big guns need to carefully listen to their markets. Its a niche market. We don't need a camera shop on every street corner like Jessops tried to establish. They moved away from serving the photographer and thought they knew better. The in house blurb was that they were salesmen, not photographers. Thing is no one wants to buy from a salesman who does not know what they are talking about. The market will consolidate and change but not entirely go away. Get back to basics rather than how many CSC v DSLRs are shipped.

I really don't see the death knoll of the DSLR even if it morphs slightly.
 
Actual shipments in 2014
Forecasted shipments for 2015


CIPA2015Forecast
by alabang, on Flickr

Point & shoots is the most affected in drop in sales.

Interchangeable lenses and bodies the least affected.

People on photo forums will still buy dedicated still cameras.

People who dont will probably use what they have until it is too expensive to fix or just get a new smartphone.
 
Actual shipments in 2014
Forecasted shipments for 2015


CIPA2015Forecast
by alabang, on Flickr

Point & shoots is the most affected in drop in sales.

Interchangeable lenses and bodies the least affected.

People on photo forums will still buy dedicated still cameras.

People who dont will probably use what they have until it is too expensive to fix or just get a new smartphone.

Could have told you that...
 
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