The pound is worth nothing in Japan

[RichieRich]

The days of getting hold of some cheap equipment in Japan while on holiday are truly over...as a Brit resident of Japan I follow the exchange rate closely as I have savings in the UK.

I've realised that the pound has become so weak that it would be far cheaper to buy most lenses in England and pay for them to be shipped to Japan. Even if I get stung with import duty here I'd still be paying less than I'd pay here!

From Japan to England and back again has become cheaper than directly from Japan....this currency crisis must be killing the Japanese producers who are exporting to Europe.

 

[ThePitwall]

Aye RRP's are on the up over here and not just for the camera and electronic manufacturers. Japanese car companies are cacking themselves over here.

 

[rickj]

tell me about it last year I was over there buying koi. to do the same this year is going to cost double and people aint going to pay it.
its time the japanese goverment devalude the yen

 

[RichieRich]

Yep, and raising prices at a time of falling demand isn't ideal to say the least. Electronics companies in Japan must be facing a nightmare scenario at the moment. Bear in mind that the Playstation 3, for example, was selling at a slight loss in order to gain market share when the Yen was only 220 to the pound. Now the Yen has risen to around 122. The losses being incurred by continuing to supply the UK must be astronomical.

I have heard that Canon is to raise prices by 10% from this week in the UK (and 5%) in Eurozone, but this represents a fraction of their reduced margin, particularly given that raising prices may lead to a drop in sales.

It honestly wouldn't surprise me if either:

a) Japanese electronics suppliers temporarily suspend shipments to the UK

or

b) The Japanese government has to step in to reduce the Yen's value. Even if this happens, it's likely to be pinned to the dollar which has also appreciated rapidly to the pound over the last 4 months.

I was reading a report last week which indicated that sterling, and indeed the euro may have much further to fall. Scary days.

 

[whiteflyer]

tell me about it last year I was over there buying koi. to do the same this year is going to cost double and people aint going to pay it.
its time the japanese goverment devalude the yen

No it's time we got a government who knew a little but about economics and strengthen the Pound.

My VAT cut will save every family £5 a week or £275 a year)

Now when I went to school 52 x 5 = 260, but I guess Gordon knows better

 

[Dom_Cabarete]

No it's time we got a government who knew a little but about economics and strengthen the Pound.

SPEAK THE TRUTH. CAN I GET AN AMMMMEEENNNNN

 

[J Gordon]

:annoyed:Yen, Euro and Dollar are al grossly over valued, a correction is on its way and normal service willsoon be resumed. For example, spanish holiday houses will be buy one get on free come Christmas, and Paris will be strangely bereft of the English in Spring time, which may be a smallblessing to Parisianes but will hurt the Eurozone economy across several nations.
Worst thing here is that all the decent Polish builders have taken flight returning to Poland, leaving a residue of poor quality and expensive british builders in there wake. Cheers.:bang:

 

[Dom_Cabarete]

bring on the £100 note

 

[RichieRich]

The scary thing is that the Yen may not be particularly overvalued given the current climate. People are no longer looking for investment, rather wealth protection when it comes to currency holidings. In this sense Japan provides a sensible option due to it's low exposure to sub prime etc.

I agree, the government is borrowing like a poker player 'on tilt' who simply can't walk away from the table.

The government tells us we should fear deflation in the short term, however, I fear hyper inflation in the medium term. In case they didn't notice we are country which consumes a higher value of manufactured goods than it produces.

The value of sterling has only just hit the headlines in England. However, the value of the Yen has been a major issue in Japan for a long time now. The Japanese see their economy getting weaker and weaker and yet see their currency getting stronger and stronger. It's a contant cause of concern over here in Japan.

It's going to be very interesting to see how all of this unwinds.

 

[Dal]

Trying to understand how all this works is over my head lol.

All I know is everything here is always expensive compared to other countries so it's worrying that its getting more expensive.

 

[RichieRich]

Trying to understand how all this works is over my head lol.

All I know is everything here is always expensive compared to other countries so it's worrying that its getting more expensive.

It's really not that complicated, although people would have you think that it is. Bacially, the strength of your currency is an indication of what people believe that they will be able to get for a unit of your currency (i.e a pound in our case). If they believe that a pound may be exchanged for a reasonable amount of goods which they require then it's value is likely to rise, or at least be maintained.

If people lose faith in their ability to exhange pounds for a reasonable amount of goods (or indeed services) which they require, then it's likely to fall in value.

Three key causes for the pound's fall is:

1) Recession. Economies in recession usually produce less things of perceived value to the outside world.
2) Low interest rates (holiding pounds bears almost no interest anymore).
3) Quantative easy (i.e. printing money). The bank of England now has the go-ahead to do this. It's a terrifying prospect which could lead to currency collapse. If more pounds are available, then the value of each pound is reduced.

 

[J Gordon]

Is there a link to BofE using Quantitive Easing, or money printing?

A low pound actually makes the UK far more competitive on exports or overseas sales, which I am in involved in. I am just wondering if quanative easing is definately on the way (I know it has been discussed in recent weeks) this may be causing some customers to hold off purchasing in the hope that the pound has alot further to fall. It's a gamble for them I guess, because both the Euro and US Dollar are grossly over-valued currently and will fall in line with sterling sooner than later.

 

[Dom_Cabarete]

i hope your right i would like my savings to go further when i ship back out to the carribean...

For anyone that doesnt understand economy read "The Ascent Of Money" its a great book, also a tv series which teaches all about the history of money

 

[it's alive]

What has all this got to do with photography equipment?

 

[Dom_Cabarete]

What has all this got to do with photography equipment?

what have you got to do with photography equipment

Yeah this has veered off but basically if we need to relate it, were talking about the economic situation in the world and the value of certain currencies which are effectivly changing were we look for cheap photography equipment.

 

[it's alive]

what have you got to do with photography equipment

Some.

On the original topic, it's inevitable at this point that things are going to get expensive for us folks in Blighty. Bummer, I guess we should buy everything that we can right now and then circle ebay like vultures waiting to pick up bargains from those poor victims of the credit crunch . . .

 

[MJ Stebbings]

What has all this got to do with photography equipment?

Loads, especially when your talking about £200-300 increases on the top of existing prices of lenses

 

[Dom_Cabarete]

its terrible all this recession stuff makes me think of weather in 7-8 years time when i come to financial indipendence with a mortgage and stuff, im going to have to inherit all this stuff

 

[Amp34]

It's really not that complicated, although people would have you think that it is. Bacially, the strength of your currency is an indication of what people believe that they will be able to get for a unit of your currency (i.e a pound in our case). If they believe that a pound may be exchanged for a reasonable amount of goods which they require then it's value is likely to rise, or at least be maintained.

If people lose faith in their ability to exhange pounds for a reasonable amount of goods (or indeed services) which they require, then it's likely to fall in value.

Three key causes for the pound's fall is:

1) Recession. Economies in recession usually produce less things of perceived value to the outside world.
2) Low interest rates (holiding pounds bears almost no interest anymore).
3) Quantative easy (i.e. printing money). The bank of England now has the go-ahead to do this. It's a terrifying prospect which could lead to currency collapse. If more pounds are available, then the value of each pound is reduced.

Possibly a fourth (and major one), there is a lot of speculation that a large proportion of the shift is because the government has intentionally devalued the pound. It may be a pain for us tourists who's money goes far less than it did before but it's useful for the goods industry as their goods now appear cheaper to the rest of the world, meaning more money comes into the country, and it's far easier to pay off any national debts when the equivilent of huge amounts have been wiped off from our end.

We also need to remember that the UK is apparently ahead of the curve, and as others have mentioned the pound has already fallen to pretty much its true "worth", whereas other currencies (especially the Dollar and Euro) are still to make the fall. Their economies are also supposed to be around 6 months behind us in terms of where they are at, which is a real worry for the eurozone as Spain and Italy are already really struggling (more so than us) and the only thing stopping them getting really in the **** is their connection to the Euro (AKA France and Germany).

So the gist, a lot of countries are laughing at us now, but wait a few months, it's quite likely we will be laughing at them even more.

I'm not really to in with the ins and outs of currency value and economy but that's what i've picked up in the last few weeks.

And on to the photography subject, I'm not planning on getting anything in the near future, and am quite happy with my kit at the moment.

 

[cressers]

Possibly a fourth (and major one), there is a lot of speculation that a large proportion of the shift is because the government has intentionally devalued the pound. It may be a pain for us tourists who's money goes far less than it did before but it's useful for the goods industry as their goods now appear cheaper to the rest of the world, meaning more money comes into the country, and it's far easier to pay off any national debts when the equivilent of huge amounts have been wiped off from our end.

We also need to remember that the UK is apparently ahead of the curve, and as others have mentioned the pound has already fallen to pretty much its true "worth", whereas other currencies (especially the Dollar and Euro) are still to make the fall. Their economies are also supposed to be around 6 months behind us in terms of where they are at, which is a real worry for the eurozone as Spain and Italy are already really struggling (more so than us) and the only thing stopping them getting really in the **** is their connection to the Euro (AKA France and Germany).

So the gist, a lot of countries are laughing at us now, but wait a few months, it's quite likely we will be laughing at them even more.

I'm not really to in with the ins and outs of currency value and economy but that's what i've picked up in the last few weeks.

And on to the photography subject, I'm not planning on getting anything in the near future, and am quite happy with my kit at the moment.

I do not buy that.

The pound is devalued because the government is borrowing HUGELY against future income which will reduce flexibility in the future. The euro will not fall as low, as the zone is, as a whole, not borrowing to such a large extent.

Your logic makes no sense though.If the pound tanks and GB joins the euro, at 1.5gbp per euro, if we owed 150mGBP it would be 100m€.

if it were at 1.1GBP we would owe 140m€

Or am I missing something?

 

[Bawbee]

bring on the £100 note

We've already got that up here. For as long as I can remember (40+ years), the Clydesdale Bank have had £100 notes available.

 

[Amp34]

I do not buy that.

The pound is devalued because the government is borrowing HUGELY against future income which will reduce flexibility in the future. The euro will not fall as low, as the zone is, as a whole, not borrowing to such a large extent.

Your logic makes no sense though.If the pound tanks and GB joins the euro, at 1.5gbp per euro, if we owed 150mGBP it would be 100m€.

if it were at 1.1GBP we would owe 140m€

Or am I missing something?

As I said I don't know that mch about it but the info is from another forum (where this very thing was debated and quite a few (supposedly) in the know people agreed with it) as well as a couple of broadsheet articles. Not necessarily right though.

But from what I understand your borrowing is only a problem if your incomings are not enough, and most of the eurozone are are way below us in terms of GDP. No the euro may not drop as much as the pound has but pretty much everyone agrees it will drop more against the pound. And it will also dependgreatly I presume if Spain and Italy drop out of the euro to try and stabilise their economy, which isn't beyond the realms of possibility, there has been some talk about it recently.

I'm pretty sure no one is even remotely contemplating joining the euro at the moment, it's about the worst time possible to do it, at a time like this the ability to control your economy is vital.

 

[RichieRich]

We also need to remember that the UK is apparently ahead of the curve, and as others have mentioned the pound has already fallen to pretty much its true "worth", whereas other currencies (especially the Dollar and Euro) are still to make the fall.

Possibly, but it may be a case of who fails first. If the UK went as far as defaulting on debt and had to go crawling to the IMF for funds then it could tip the balance and the pound could go into a long term downward spiral. In addition, if the Euro was to break the 1:1 threshold with the pound for a couple of weeks it may become the norm.

With regards to the Euro though, in real terms things aren't going well. The European Central Bank faces the hugely difficult task of planning a monetary policy which will suit all nations in different states of recession. Peronally, I think that Spain is heading for massive decline.

As far as how this relates to photographic equipment:

1) The price of goods here affects us all.
2) Recession may mean less inovation. If Canon and Nikon start to lose significant money in Japan then R&D will also be cut back.
3) Many people in the photography business are likely to be paid less and / or receive less work in times of recession. During recessions people put off getting married and spend less when they do. Also, one of things like family photo shoots become more and more of a luxury when people are concerned about being able to pay their mortgages and put food on the table.

 

[Dom_Cabarete]

And on to the photography subject, I'm not planning on getting anything in the near future, and am quite happy with my kit at the moment.

Thats because you just got a 300mm f4 :razz: jammy git

 

[Holden Caulfield]

Personally I dont give a hoot about the cost of camera gear as long as we can still afford the NHS,which is free at the point of delivery.

My view is that we as a nation are going to have a lot less 'toys' in the future and that joining the euro is about the only way UKPLC is going to stay afloat

 

[Dom_Cabarete]

the NHS are awesome but, this is still not full on recession if Europe decide its time to blame the bankers, that will get them lending again... All i want is my pounds to stretch a little further when i go to the carribean

 

[MJ Stebbings]

My view is that we as a nation are going to have a lot less 'toys' in the future and that joining the euro is about the only way UKPLC is going to stay afloat

Pffft, join the euro, when hell freezes over!

 

[whiteflyer]

My view is that we as a nation are going to have a lot less 'toys' in the future and that joining the euro is about the only way UKPLC is going to stay afloat

We can't join the Euro at the moment as they will not let us in. Due to the resent government borrowing and debt forecast we no longer meet the terms need to be allowed to join the Euro, so it's a non issue.

Yes the low pound is good for exports, but this is a red herring since manufacturing has been decimated over the last decade or so (because the government thought we could live on "the city" wealth) there is not much benefit as we export so little compared to what we import.

 

[Hammerhead64]

My view is that we as a nation are going to have a lot less 'toys' in the future and that joining the euro is about the only way UKPLC is going to stay afloat

:shake: Dangerous talk I think ... i've never been convinced that for the UK a change to the Euro would be a benefit, only works well for mainland Europe? :shrug:

 

[Dom_Cabarete]

i wouldnt say it wouldnt work but apart from an economic value i like coming back to the UK to sterling, people love british money Im not a big fan of the monopoly looking euro

 

[Amp34]

Thats because you just got a 300mm f4 :razz: jammy git

Please tell me you're still looking for the 100-400 or i'll feel really guilty!

:shake: Dangerous talk I think ... i've never been convinced that for the UK a change to the Euro would be a benefit, only works well for mainland Europe? :shrug:

IMO this period shows the major reason why we should never join the euro, we would be in far more trouble if we couldn't adjust our interest and borrowing.

 

[RichieRich]

Yes the low pound is good for exports, but this is a red herring since manufacturing has been decimated over the last decade or so (because the government thought we could live on "the city" wealth) there is not much benefit as we export so little compared to what we import.

Absolutely. This sums it up for me. The UK is not Japan, and we can't suddenly shift to being a good's producing nation in the short term, particularly when global demand is at a 60 year low.

In addition to importing more than it exports, UK manufacturers also have to import goods in order to produce their products. I.e. Manufacturer's input prices are rising in addition to the prices of complete products.