The virus. PPE. Part 1

Status
Not open for further replies.
Retune said:
Looks like today's announcements reflect a serious change in strategy, rather than the gradual unveiling of an existing masterplan:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ns-to-avoid-non-essential-contact-with-others

'If the government had stuck to the plans announced last week, Covid-19 could have cost 260,000 lives, according to teams of modellers from Imperial College who have run computer predictions of the impact of different interventions. The government’s strategy is based on their work and similar modelling from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine.
.'
Click to expand...

I would like to see that estimate laid wide open to scrutiny.

Current recorded figures for the world are :-
Recorded cases 184,000
Recovered 80, 000
Deaths 7,000

260,000 dead for the UK ! Worth a check to see how that stacks up.
 
arclight said:
I would like to see that estimate laid wide open to scrutiny.

Current recorded figures for the world are :-
Recorded cases 184,000
Recovered 80, 000
Deaths 7,000

260,000 dead for the UK ! Worth a check to see how that stacks up.
Click to expand...
0.4% of the population.
Not that far fetched I don't think.
 
Has anyone seen any advice or warning from an official scientific/medical source on whether there is a risk of the Covid 19 virus being carried on letter mail and parcels ?

There are plenty warnings of infection risk from the virus being found on hard surfaces. Whilst paper and cardboard are not hard surfaces many deliveries are wrapped in plastic which, like a hard surface, is not porous.
 
Bobsyeruncle said:
0.4% of the population.
Not that far fetched I don't think.
Click to expand...

The epidemic in China is near to being stable. Population 1.5 billion .......... deaths 3,000
UK population 65 million ......... estimated deaths 260,000. That is a grossly disproportion figure.

All I am saying is that whoever arrived at 260,000 needs to explain why that for every single person who has died in China 80 will die in the UK.
 
nilagin said:
I should imagine MOT's could be suspended, this was recently done in Ireland where the testing ramps were cracking and breaking.
Click to expand...

only in the 6 counties, not the republic but yes, Id imagine the sensible thing will be to suspend them for now, but also people should be able to show they had no other choice than to use a car out of MOT.
 
arclight said:
The epidemic in China is near to being stable. Population 1.5 billion .......... deaths 3,000
UK population 65 million ......... estimated deaths 260,000. That is a grossly disproportion figure.

All I am saying is that whoever arrived at 260,000 needs to explain why that for every single person who has died in China 80 will die in the UK.
Click to expand...
The virus isn't rife in the whole of China though.
They've managed to contain it to certain areas have they not?
 
arclight said:
Has anyone seen any advice or warning from an official scientific/medical source on whether there is a risk of the Covid 19 virus being carried on letter mail and parcels ?

There are plenty warnings of infection risk from the virus being found on hard surfaces. Whilst paper and cardboard are not hard surfaces many deliveries are wrapped in plastic which, like a hard surface, is not porous.
Click to expand...

It's less about porosity and more about temperature of the surface and the ability of the virus to survive on it. ie it lasts longer on cold than warm etc.

Lots of people asking can you get the virus off a parcel from China and getting answers on TV saying no because it lasts only about 48 hours and obviously the parcel takes longer.

However, the last person to touch that parcel may be someone from dpd or royal mail or whoever that has the virus and transferred it to your parcel 2 minutes ago as he got it out of the van.

This is why once you receive it and unwrap it, wash your hands after disposing of the outer packaging properly and don't touch your face in the meantime.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Nod
arclight said:
I would like to see that estimate laid wide open to scrutiny.

Current recorded figures for the world are :-
Recorded cases 184,000
Recovered 80, 000
Deaths 7,000

260,000 dead for the UK ! Worth a check to see how that stacks up.
Click to expand...

See:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

And that's with 'mitigation', the previous strategy. Do nothing and you get double that. The pandemic is still in an early stage, and growing exponentially (doubling about every 5 days) where it hasn't been suppressed by control measures.
 
Bobsyeruncle said:
0.4% of the population.
Not that far fetched I don't think.
Click to expand...

But most of those are going to over 70 with a health condition, so a decent chunk of that number would possibly have died anyway through what they had or a complication like flu, so still not really a true representation of data.
 
Donnie said:
only in the 6 counties, not the republic but yes, Id imagine the sensible thing will be to suspend them for now, but also people should be able to show they had no other choice than to use a car out of MOT.
Click to expand...
The problem might be more serious in relation to complying with the conditions of your insurance :(
 
cambsno said:
But most of those are going to over 70 with a health condition, so a decent chunk of that number would possibly have died anyway through what they had or a complication like flu, so still not really a true representation of data.
Click to expand...

Oh thats ok then, never mind the fact we have vaccines against flu and not covid 19. Don't let facts get in your way of justifying those potential deaths though? :oops: :$
 
Retune said:
See:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf

And that's with 'mitigation', the previous strategy. Do nothing and you get double that. The pandemic is still in an early stage, and growing exponentially (doubling about every 5 days) where it hasn't been suppressed by control measures.
Click to expand...

Seems to be no doubt that there is a need for control measures and hindsight may well show that control measures are better applied early on.
For weeks there were almost no cases being recorded in Africa, but now they are popping up all over that continent. That could involve an uncontrollable outbreak.
 
arclight said:
Has anyone seen any advice or warning from an official scientific/medical source on whether there is a risk of the Covid 19 virus being carried on letter mail and parcels ?

There are plenty warnings of infection risk from the virus being found on hard surfaces. Whilst paper and cardboard are not hard surfaces many deliveries are wrapped in plastic which, like a hard surface, is not porous.
Click to expand...

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.09.20033217v2

Aerosol and surface stability of HCoV-19 (SARS-CoV-2) compared to SARS-CoV-1

'HCoV-19 remained viable in aerosols throughout the duration of our experiment (3 hours) … HCoV-19 was most stable on plastic and stainless steel and viable virus could be detected up to 72 hours post application … though the virus titer was greatly reduced … No viable virus could be measured after 4 hours on copper … or after 24 hours on cardboard. … Our results indicate that aerosol and fomite transmission of HCoV-19 are plausible, as the virus can remain viable and infectious in aerosols for multiple hours and on surfaces up to days.'
 
cambsno said:
But most of those are going to over 70 with a health condition, so a decent chunk of that number would possibly have died anyway through what they had or a complication like flu, so still not really a true representation of data.
Click to expand...
There are some estimates for flu deaths in England (85% of UK population) here:

https://assets.publishing.service.g...tory_viruses_in_the_UK_2018_to_2019-FINAL.pdf

For recent years with complete data, flu-associated deaths ranged from 12-28,000, so this is an order of magnitude worse.
 
gman said:
I can't remember where, but I'm sure I read or heard on the radio that Germany was providing unlimited financial support for businesses?

"€500 Billion, and that's just for starters" rings a bell as well.

Not sure we are getting similar support in the UK.
Click to expand...
Given the billions that were committed to bailing out the banks more than a decade ago , there should be some form of aid to protect small & medium sized businesses & their workers.
 
My car is due a service next month, it should be done within a certain period to maintain the warranty. I wonder what will happen to servicing & repairs if the dealers close for several months?
 
Has anyone actually seen any advice on what a "continuous cough" or what now seems to be referred to as a "persistent cough"?

If I Google either, then general NHS definition (not related to the virus) seems to be a cough that you've had for 3 weeks or more.

Other places talk about a continuous cough being 8 weeks or longer, or actually meaning that you are coughing continuously (which would suggest you basically never stop).

Why isn't it stated what they mean? E.g. if it means 3 weeks, why don't they say a cough that you've had for at least 3 weeks.

I've had a cough since Thursday but maybe have a period where I'll be coughing for a few minutes, then maybe nothing until another 30 minutes to an hour. So by general definition I don't think it classifies as continuous or persistent at present, but I've not seen anything where anyone's been clear on what this means.
 
mike_6480 said:
Has anyone actually seen any advice on what a "continuous cough" or what now seems to be referred to as a "persistent cough"?

If I Google either, then general NHS definition (not related to the virus) seems to be a cough that you've had for 3 weeks or more.

Other places talk about a continuous cough being 8 weeks or longer, or actually meaning that you are coughing continuously (which would suggest you basically never stop).

Why isn't it stated what they mean? E.g. if it means 3 weeks, why don't they say a cough that you've had for at least 3 weeks.

I've had a cough since Thursday but maybe have a period where I'll be coughing for a few minutes, then maybe nothing until another 30 minutes to an hour. So by general definition I don't think it classifies as continuous or persistent at present, but I've not seen anything where anyone's been clear on what this means.
Click to expand...

That's enough to self isolate, any symptoms relating to CV should be treated as if it is.
 
mike_6480 said:
I've had a cough since Thursday but maybe have a period where I'll be coughing for a few minutes, then maybe nothing until another 30 minutes to an hour. So by general definition I don't think it classifies as continuous or persistent at present, but I've not seen anything where anyone's been clear on what this means.
Click to expand...

If you are saying you have a new cough and it's coming on every 30 to 60 minutes that would meet the definition of persistent for sure.
As a healthcare worker I'd be going nowhere near you.

mex said:
That's enough to self isolate, any symptoms relating to CV should be treated as if it is.
Click to expand...

:plus1:
 
Donnie said:
If you are saying you have a new cough and it's coming on every 30 to 60 minutes that would meet the definition of persistent for sure.
As a healthcare worker I'd be going nowhere near you.



:plus1:
Click to expand...
:plus1:
 
From what I have just read, this has been around for a good 6-7 months and only spotlighted recently, I think I may believe this as I had a very nasty cough and flu bug that made me very ill a few months ago, caught off a colleague who had just returned from Sri Lanka with it, I don't know how true this is as its a story off facebook from a Dr explaining why some ones family hasn't contracted it after being in close contact with a person who did have it, if this is the case its good news, as lots of us may have already had it and are now immune to it.
 
Dangermouse said:
From what I have just read, this has been around for a good 6-7 months and only spotlighted recently, I think I may believe this as I had a very nasty cough and flu bug that made me very ill a few months ago, caught off a colleague who had just returned from Sri Lanka with it, I don't know how true this is as its a story off facebook from a Dr explaining why some ones family hasn't contracted it after being in close contact with a person who did have it, if this is the case its good news, as lots of us may have already had it and are now immune to it.
Click to expand...

"story off facebook" ............... The Beano and the Dandy had more credence than Farcebook.
 
Dangermouse said:
From what I have just read, this has been around for a good 6-7 months and only spotlighted recently, I think I may believe this as I had a very nasty cough and flu bug that made me very ill a few months ago, caught off a colleague who had just returned from Sri Lanka with it, I don't know how true this is as its a story off facebook from a Dr explaining why some ones family hasn't contracted it after being in close contact with a person who did have it, if this is the case its good news, as lots of us may have already had it and are now immune to it.
Click to expand...

If it was around all winter, how come the situation seen in Italy and China didn't occur anywhere else?
Seems slightly dodgy information IMHO, lots of people would have had a 'normal' cold or flu over the winter, it seems wishful thinking that you have already had Covid.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Dangermouse said:
From what I have just read, this has been around for a good 6-7 months and only spotlighted recently, I think I may believe this as I had a very nasty cough and flu bug that made me very ill a few months ago, caught off a colleague who had just returned from Sri Lanka with it, I don't know how true this is as its a story off facebook from a Dr explaining why some ones family hasn't contracted it after being in close contact with a person who did have it, if this is the case its good news, as lots of us may have already had it and are now immune to it.
Click to expand...
The earliest known case was in Hubei Province, China, exactly 4 months ago. It didn't start taking off enough to be noticed even in China until late December. It's likely that you just had a very nasty cough and flu bug.

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/soc...nas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-back

Edit: "according to [Chinese] government data seen by the South China Morning Post". The first officially confirmed and published case was in early December, also discovered retrospectively.
 
Last edited:
arclight said:
"story off facebook" ............... The Beano and the Dandy had more credence than Farcebook.
Click to expand...

Indeed, I've actually come off a few unofficial nhs and nursing groups due to the ignorance of some.

Dangermouse said:
Would be great news if true though
Click to expand...

It would be brilliant, but posting and reposting fairy dust wishes won't have any benefit, in fact the very opposite is true as complacency will breed more disease.
 
Finally!:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...085c6327bc191b#block-5e70dc778f085c6327bc191b

'Britain needs 'big increase in testing' - government adviser

Britain needs a big increase in testing, MPs have been told by Britain’s chief scientific adviser, who added that he is “pushing for it very hard”
“The quicker we can get to a true community-based test the better,” said Sir Patrick Vallance.
He went on to say that at the moment entire households are being put into quarantine even if they do not have it, and may have to be put into quarantine again, but that is still the right thing.
On tests, there are lots of laboratory tests being done and lots of people claiming to have them but a lot of work was being done in the UK now on that front.
Vallance suggested that the private sector could play a big part in testing being ramped up.
There was a question from Jeremy Hunt, the former health secretary, about whether Britain could and should follow the example of some Asian countries in using mobile phone tracking to identify movements of people who may have the virus - even though there may be civil liberties implications
That approach would have made total sense back in January, replied Vallance, and may well yet come back into play at a later stage. But he knows that people are working very, very hard in the UK and elsewhere in developing that approach.'
 
Arch Bishops of Canterbury and York have just suspended all public church services till further notice.
churches will remain open for private prayer.
 
Just watching Trumps rambling press conference re Corona Virus. The usual nonsense about "the invisible enemy" and how "we'll beat it".

He then handed over to VP Mike Dense as a few longer words followed. Dense requested that construction companies donate their N95 masks to medical facilities.

Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin announces a stimulus package and the fact that a direct payment will be made to most Americans. When asked about the size of the payments Trump says "We're going big"

Trump may have tested negative for Corona Virus, but he seems to be the epicentre of the Morona Virus...
 
  • Like
Reactions: mex
Donnie said:
Oh thats ok then, never mind the fact we have vaccines against flu and not covid 19. Don't let facts get in your way of justifying those potential deaths though? :oops: :$
Click to expand...

I am not justifying them but trying to highlight that sticking up headline figures that 20k or whatever may die may not be entirely accurate. For example, on the other hand, stats will probably show less accidents and fatalities on the roads over the coming months. That has nothing to do with drivers or roads, just the fact we are unlikley to clock up so many miles and does not mean we are safer as a country.
 
Dangermouse said:
From what I have just read, this has been around for a good 6-7 months and only spotlighted recently, I think I may believe this as I had a very nasty cough and flu bug that made me very ill a few months ago, caught off a colleague who had just returned from Sri Lanka with it, I don't know how true this is as its a story off facebook from a Dr explaining why some ones family hasn't contracted it after being in close contact with a person who did have it, if this is the case its good news, as lots of us may have already had it and are now immune to it.
Click to expand...

Same here. Had a few days of fever in early Dec, persistent cough, was not 'ill ill' but probably functioning around 80%, was breathless too. Lasted a good 2 -3 weeks. Virtually identical to Corona but then its very close to a cold or other virus too!
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top