The virus. PPE. Part 1

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nilagin said:
So where does the beginning end and the afterwards start, in their first reported month, China had over 58k reported infections and more deaths than the UK currently has reported infections and we are only one month in ourselves. It is only in their second month after quite a big leap in one day, that China's situation has started to improve.
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Nobody realised anything was going on until late Dec (earlier case counts were added retrospectively). By then, the virus had probably been circulating for over a month. State officials clamped down on early reports when they should have been clamping down on the outbreak and misleading information was released suggesting poor human to human transmission. Vital weeks were lost in Jan, but strong measures started to get things under control in Feb (the apparent leap in a day is an artefact of changing the case definition, when they added probable cases not yet confirmed by molecular testing).
 
Will the current plans work ?? As some will know I have a large family plus a lot of friends and through my previous employment a myriad of contacts a lot who are now on faceberk and social media etc..

these are spread over a large spectrum of intelligence some university degrees , care industry workers , normal 9.5 jobs etc a wide spectrum of humanity in fact and sitting back and observing how most are reacting to this I have come to a conclusion .

We are I’m afraid doomed unless a full lockdown comes with appropriate funding . As even the supposedly intelligent of those listed above are interpreting the rules to suit there own personal situations ..


I honestly can’t see any way round it bar a italy/Spain/ France type enforced lockdown
 
Retune said:
Nobody realised anything was going on until late Dec (earlier case counts were added retrospectively). By then, the virus had probably been circulating for over a month. State officials clamped down on early reports when they should have been clamping down on the outbreak and misleading information was released suggesting poor human to human transmission. Vital weeks were lost in Jan, but strong measures started to get things under control in Feb (the apparent leap in a day is an artefact of changing the case definition, when they added probable cases not yet confirmed by molecular testing).
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So they were 3 months in not two before they got hold of it. How is that better than everywhere else being just one month in?
 
arclight said:
This is worth watching:-

Covid 19 was not a surprise to everyone

https://www.geekwire.com/2020/bill-gates-warned-us-covid-19-like-pandemic-watch-ted-talk-2015/

And some encouraging thoughts from Bill Gates
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/18/bil...for-coronavirus-could-open-in-6-10-weeks.html
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But it shouldn’t have been a surprise to anyone given the history of pandemics and the recent SARS, MERS, Ebola etc. :( And vast increase in global movements of people — and I don’t mean migrants but business people and holidaymakers :(.
 
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It wasn't really a surprise, but it's extremely expensive to keep medical facilities on standby for decades to cope with a crisis that may not come. A bit liike having a large standing army because you KNOW that at some stage there'll be another war & someone will try to invade.
 
MatBin said:
According to figures on Sky, 137 have died out of 2689 gives a ration of just over 5% of those confirmed positive tests, far too many.
The situation has changed since my initial post some days ago and I will agree that the chances now are much higher of death if you catch the virus than they were, "better*" than winning the lottery, it is only right that everyone should take precautions against this virus.


*Better in statistical terms only, please do not infere anything else in the term "better".
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But that assumes only 2686 caught it. We don’t know but estimates have suggested 50,000 have had / have it? So 0.002%
 
MatBin said:
Worst bit for me was the "evacuation" beforehand :)
Hope you get good results.
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Nod said:
Me too - on both counts! First try didn't clear properly so resorted to the "Picolax" alternative - which again didn't complete the job(bie!) properly so ended up being double dosed. Holy schytte!!! Nipped out a couple of polyps (all cleared by path lab) so no need for any more now.
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I think you guys have got the wrong procedure? She had the colonoscopy last year and I'm too much of a gentleman to say how the 'evacuation' went. Well, that and she would kill me if she found out I'd blabbed on a forum. I told her at the time she'd laugh about it one day, but that day hasn't come yet
 
nilagin said:
So they were 3 months in not two before they got hold of it. How is that better than everywhere else being just one month in?
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Nobody knew this virus even existed before late Dec, when a cluster of cases was documented and reported. No one ever catches the first case of an emerging virus - it was only when a cluster of cases presented that it became clear something was going on. I doubt other countries would have done better in December, and the characterisation of the virus was completed incredibly quickly, within days of the first report. China can however be seriously criticised for its response to the discovery in early January, which was mired in secrecy and bureaucracy. By late January they were doing what was necessary, more effectively than most other countries, and their measures were having a big impact by mid February.
 
Retune said:
Nobody knew this virus even existed before late Dec, when a cluster of cases was documented and reported. No one ever catches the first case of an emerging virus - it was only when a cluster of cases presented that it became clear something was going on. I doubt other countries would have done better in December, and the characterisation of the virus was completed incredibly quickly, within days of the first report. China can however be seriously criticised for its response to the discovery in early January, which was mired in secrecy and bureaucracy. By late January they were doing what was necessary, more effectively than most other countries, and their measures were having a big impact by mid February.
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I wouldn't say allowing people to leave the country so the virus could spread was doing what was necessary. Odd they managed to contain it to one area of there own country and allow it to spread around the world.
 
the black fox said:
I honestly can’t see any way round it bar a italy/Spain/ France type enforced lockdown
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The French Health Ministry has hinted that France may well stop people arriving from countires who haven't had lockdowns as this would likely reduce the effectiveness of the France's actions.
 
ancient_mariner said:
It wasn't really a surprise, but it's extremely expensive to keep medical facilities on standby for decades to cope with a crisis that may not come. A bit liike having a large standing army because you KNOW that at some stage there'll be another war & someone will try to invade.
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Undoubtedly true but the nhs has been run down below what’s necessary without a crisis. Also plans could have been made prior to it happening rather than making up as you go along. Of course that would require an efficient and valued Civil Service. we know that Parliamentary estate is not fit for purpose too (because MPs say so) but they haven’t done anything to bring it up to date etc :(. p***-ups and breweries come to mind :(.
 
sphexx said:
Undoubtedly true but the nhs has been run down below what’s necessary without a crisis.
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"Hope for the best but plan for the worst" is not something that the political class has ever really understood. They seem to prefer "hope that when things go wrong it'll be some other b*****'s problem". We used to have an independent civil service to balance that but the last 40 years has seen that backstop lost. :sulk:
 
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This is also now the third zoonotic coronavirus we've been hit with this century, and we've known for a while that there are large reservoirs of potential spillover viruses in bats. We might have taken the hint after SARS and MERS (MERS is still active) and put resources into developing specific antivirals that target their common features (the viral polymerase, which is relatively well conserved between these viruses, has been suggested as a promising target).
 
One of the reports on the Chn4 news earlier was showing the difference between London and Paris(I think) re shoppers. In Paris there were security guards on the door of a supermarket allowing one in at time . I think it was Paris but it doesn't matter.

Then the next section was a reporter in London and the narrow street was full and outside a small grocery store was a queue with people standing very close to each other waiting to get in. The owner said he'd never sold so much in a day. The reporter was contrasting the difference. He then asked a lady, who appeared to be in her early seventies, if she wasn't concerned at being so close to other people. Her answer ? "No..you've got to carry on as normal haven't you or ..at this point I said to my wife.." it's won"..Well, the lady didn't say exactly that, she said, "or you've given in to it haven't you". My wife laughed. I don't know what it is about the British but I've heard these comments on other occasions and I've thought what a stupid comment. There's 'carrying on' and 'carrying on'. You can still 'carry on' but take sensible precautions for whatever the situation is.

The London underground would cause me a great deal of anxiety if I had to use it. Looking at the footage this evening in that report you'd be forgiven in thinking that there wasn't a problem in the capital when,infact, London has the highest number of cases. As of yesterday, 621 cases and 25 deaths. This accounts for 32% of all UK cases.

About now..4 days after the end of Cheltenham races I expect the virus will be showing itself in some of the racegoers and those they've come into contact with but we'll never know. You can see the same mentality that allowed those 4 days of racing to go ahead..ie the potential loss of a revenue..a substantial amount, granted, with the Olympics scheduled to take place in Japan in July. It's billions at stake here.


It's 4 months away, July 24th start date.. but the issue is about athletes training now. https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/olympics/51943083
 
Interesting (if a little worrying) ad campaign springing up in France to highlight the idiot who breaks all the rules, bulk buys, doesn't wash his hands, violates the lockdown etc etc

moi.jpg
 
Forgotten my school boy french ,que
 
Retune said:
This is also now the third zoonotic coronavirus we've been hit with this century, and we've known for a while that there are large reservoirs of potential spillover viruses in bats. We might have taken the hint after SARS and MERS (MERS is still active) and put resources into developing specific antivirals that target their common features (the viral polymerase, which is relatively well conserved between these viruses, has been suggested as a promising target).
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In the meantime whilst researchers try to develop antivirals a good start would be to sort out eating habits of some Chinese..seemingly the so-called elite. Most ordinary Chinese don't eat wild animals or use them for so-called traditional medicines. Probably because they can't afford them. I think this latest outbreak maybe the straw that breaks the camel's back and a concerted effort ,this time, will be made to eradicate the practice.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/05/...-wildlife-consumption-ban-intl-hnk/index.html

Talking of camels...lol..In August 2013 researchers found MERS antibodies in camels in Oman but not the actual virus. As you'll know, MERS originated in Saudi Arabia and the exact virus was found in one of the bats that was tested that lived just 7 miles from the first MERS victim.

I wondered why it's bats that harbour so many lethal viruses and according to this article, dated February 11th this year it's their ..quote 'uniquely fierce immune system'

https://newatlas.com/science/why-deadly-viral-coronavirus-outbreaks-originate-bats/

Next question is why do they have such a powereful immune system. I found this article. Answer. 'An awesome survival mechanism'
https://www.sciencealert.com/deadly...off-with-bats-here-s-why-they-re-patient-zero
 
Dont want to sidetrack the thread but for those who sent best wishes, Kaye's home now. Small lumpectomy and multi lymph nodes removed. Uncomfortable but fine. Now waiting for pathology on nasty bits removed to see full treatment plan. Radio therapy is certainly part of it.
Thanks for best wishes.
Back to the main feature.
 
JohnC6 said:
In the meantime whilst researchers try to develop antivirals a good start would be to sort out eating habits of some Chinese..seemingly the so-called elite. Most ordinary Chinese don't eat wild animals or use them for so-called traditional medicines. Probably because they can't afford them. I think this latest outbreak maybe the straw that breaks the camel's back and a concerted effort ,this time, will be made to eradicate the practice.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/05/...-wildlife-consumption-ban-intl-hnk/index.html

Talking of camels...lol..In August 2013 researchers found MERS antibodies in camels in Oman but not the actual virus. As you'll know, MERS originated in Saudi Arabia and the exact virus was found in one of the bats that was tested that lived just 7 miles from the first MERS victim.

I wondered why it's bats that harbour so many lethal viruses and according to this article, dated February 11th this year it's their ..quote 'uniquely fierce immune system'

https://newatlas.com/science/why-deadly-viral-coronavirus-outbreaks-originate-bats/

Next question is why do they have such a powereful immune system. I found this article. Answer. 'An awesome survival mechanism'
https://www.sciencealert.com/deadly...off-with-bats-here-s-why-they-re-patient-zero
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Really interesting thanks for sharing
 
Been out shopping this morning, what suprised me was the amount of old people around - lots of over 70s, they are the ones at risk but not that bothered!
 
cambsno said:
Been out shopping this morning, what suprised me was the amount of old people around - lots of over 70s, they are the ones at risk but not that bothered!
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The oldies in my (or rather my wife's family) are being a right royal pain in the ass.
My wife's nan needed some shopping so we offered to get what she needed and drop it in to her, but she insisted she had to go out. If we didn't take her she was going to go on the bus.

So my wife offered to take her to Iceland for the early opening for the elderly. But no, she has to go to Salisbury (which at the time had no special hours for the elderly), and go to homebase to pick up some paint, and the garden centre.

She simply will not listen to advice. If we tell her we wont take her she will just use public transport and with my wife's granddad in poor, so we are pushed into taking her where she wants to go to at least stop her using the bus.

In the mean time we are all staying indoors, working from home and anything else to limit the risk of catching and then passing anything on to the olds. But it's ok, she went through worse in the war don't you know, despite being born in 1945. :banghead:
 
Amongst my other photo interests is aircraft. so when one goes over, mainly to the US and Canada, sometimes I check what it is on an app called Planefinder. It’s free but there are two other versions which you have to pay for. One in 3D. The free one is fine. It also gives all the info..Type..airline,route..altitude..speed... I thought Trump had banned flights from Europe..including UK and Ireland from Tuesday but a 747 went over at 9.00am Heathrow to New York and another ..a 777 at 9.45 to Miami both showing as passenger planes and just now a Flight from Amsterdam to Bogata but that’s freight. From the sound of it a B2’s Spirit ..Stealth bomber 10 minutes ago from RAF Fairford. That doesn’t show,though. As I post a Virgin A350 is going over Heathrow to JFK, New York.

All planes show,both on the ground and in flight ,you tap on one and there’s quite a reduction from normal around Heathrow.
 
the black fox said:
Forgotten my school boy french ,que
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Bob is a C-unit. (Well, that's the tag line, anyway.)

He doesn't listen to expert/scientific advice.
He goes out without a good reason.
(I think) he's stockpiling non-perishable foods.
He doesn't wash his hands frequently.
He thinks that the virus isn't going to get him.
He doesn't realise that his behaviour might prolong the period of confinement.
 
jakeblu said:
I think you guys have got the wrong procedure? She had the colonoscopy last year and I'm too much of a gentleman to say how the 'evacuation' went. Well, that and she would kill me if she found out I'd blabbed on a forum. I told her at the time she'd laugh about it one day, but that day hasn't come yet
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Oops! Yup, wrong end(o)!


For anyone who has never seen the classic Picolax thread from Singletrack's forum (a mountain biking forum IIRC), here's a link... https://singletrackworld.com/forum/topic/the-first-of-the-lost-threads-the-picolax-classic/
 
bass_junkie83 said:
The oldies in my (or rather my wife's family) are being a right royal pain in the ass.
My wife's nan needed some shopping so we offered to get what she needed and drop it in to her, but she insisted she had to go out. If we didn't take her she was going to go on the bus.

So my wife offered to take her to Iceland for the early opening for the elderly. But no, she has to go to Salisbury (which at the time had no special hours for the elderly), and go to homebase to pick up some paint, and the garden centre.

She simply will not listen to advice. If we tell her we wont take her she will just use public transport and with my wife's granddad in poor, so we are pushed into taking her where she wants to go to at least stop her using the bus.

In the mean time we are all staying indoors, working from home and anything else to limit the risk of catching and then passing anything on to the olds. But it's ok, she went through worse in the war don't you know, despite being born in 1945. :banghead:
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Take me or I’ll go on the bus ?......and put myself at higher risk. Sounds like emotional blackmail to me. A bit naughty,really. Should be grateful for your wife’s offer. It’s not a dissimilar attitude that I highlighted in my above post at 9.47pm.
 
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