This is probably aimed more at EdBray than anyone else (I just want to be sure I understand what he is saying):
Are you saying there will be an exposure for the water which lies between a 'normal' exposure (no filters used, entire scene a reasonable exposure, but water static and frozen), and the examples posted (where the water is nice and blurry but you are saying is blown out because there is no detail left in the water), which will be blurred but still contain detail but the rest of the scene would be under exposed?
Hope I've got this right.
I'll illustrate my take on it, with the aid of the histogram, just to drag things back on topic. Apologies.
Just to be clear, these results would have been apparent with or without a filter. There may be differences in how blurry the water is, etc, but ultimately the over and underexposed areas would turn out much the same. As it happens, I didn't use a filter as it was quite a dull day.
Here's a shot I took last year, which is clearly underexposed. The blue areas show detail that has been lost in the darkness forever. Note the shape of the histogram.
If I up the exposure in Lightroom, you can see the effect it has on the water. Red areas indicate blown whites, blue underexposed areas are still visible. Note the shape of the histogram.
Finally, after messing around with a few other sliders; fill light and recovery, mainly, it starts to get closer to the correct exposure across the scene. No blown areas, and only very negligible underexposed areas. Note the shape of the histogram, which is closer to the "correct" shape, although that rule doesn't always apply.
I suppose I'm just saying what EdBray is saying, really. I can sort of rescue my shot in LR, but that may not always be possible. To be sure, I could have taken a shot with correctly exposed water, and a shot with correctly exposed rocks and such, and then combined them in Photoshop.
So, yeah, an ND filter, CPL, or no filter at all, can all be used to achieve blurry water, depending on how light/dark the scene is. But you can't guarantee you won't end up with blown/underexposed areas without taking more than one shot. That's not to say they won't necessarily be recoverable in post-processing. It's just not wise to rely on it.
Hope that all makes sense, and I've not missed out anything important. That's just my take on the subject.