I find myself in agreement with Gary on much of this. I'm torn between 2 and 4. Critically 4 has the drops in-front of the face as has been mentioned. But they could relatively easily be removed.
I'm not sure how much experience you have of local camera club competitions, or indeed if this is a sole judge, or panel. Sadly at local levels judging is quite formulaic in the initial stages of assessing an image, or indeed at effectively eliminating an image, and so you have to look at competition images with two sets of criteria:
A) Does it fail on the common rules camera club judges use as a means of scoring an image (BTW I'm not saying these rules should always be applied just that inexperienced, weak, or even off-their-subject judges will often use them in lieu of looking at an image as a whole).
B) Does it grab the judges attention, have impact, and tell a story
I think 3 has the best chance of meeting criteria B - because it shows the underside of the umbrella and completes the image but it is so blown out on her chest that you'll never recover that and it is probably a deal breaker. Images 2 and 4 whilst technically better don't really show the brolly - although 4 does show the stem of the handle.
I guess my gut feel on this is I'm not sure (and obviously without seeing other entries) that any of these is a winner. There are technical faults in all of them from a highlights point of view, and position of the face, and most judges will mark down images which are burnt out in critical areas, or where the brightest part of an image draws the viewer away from the subject (Images 1, 3 and to a certain extent the blurred highlight near the face of 2).
If you want an image judged from this set then I think you need to do some work on highlights, particularly near the face, and which punctuate in areas of otherwise deep shadow. You might if it is image 4 you select remove that set of drops in-front of her face.
If you want to do well, or even place, then my recommendation would be to consider reshooting this with more control over your lighting, and composition - I actually think as a concept it is strong and could do well - or if this isn't possible look to something else.
As always on the day the judge can make a choice which confounds everyone else so there are no guarantees - your job is to give yourself the best possible chance.
Good luck.
