My 2p
While photographers are busy debating what is and what is not a photograph, I suspect we will find that the markets for photography are rapidly usurped by AI-generated images.
@Raymond Lin observed that it depends which field you are in, but there are a lot of fields where photography is susceptible to being replaced by AI,.
As a rough guide, that is everywhere that photography replaced hand-drawn illustration in the last hundred years or so. The first areas to go will be the more generic stock photography where web sites are looking for 'man confused by computer' or 'Euros left on a table to pay for lunch'.
Amongst the attractions for image-buyers will be that they don't have to negotiate licensing for each image, just come up with an appropriate prompt.
If you're looking for an image to illustrate 'Liverpool waterfront' and you can summon up several convincing images synthesised by an AI service in a few seconds that can be freely used for little or no money, or spend hours trawling through Shutterstock or Getty, then have to pay a significant fee and carefully observe the licensing terms, which option is more attractive?
It's easy enough to foresee that advertising agencies will move to combining 3D CGI models of products with AI -generated environments and cut out the messy business of paying a photographer to photograph real things in real places, then have them retouched to meet the original brief. Think of 1930s adverts for clothes; nobody cared much that the pictures were drawn rather than photographed.
Grimes is licensing an AI version of her voice for a 50% cut of the sales on any tracks it's used on. It's not difficult to imagine a scenario where magazine needing a 'photo shoot' with a busy celebrity negotiates to using an AI imagery with the artist's agent instead of taking time out of their schedule.
Celebrities will want proper control of the use of their likeness in AI generated images and that may have a knock on effect the legal position for real photography. There's plenty of precedent in places like Germany and with the estates of Albert Einstein and Marilyn Monroe. Less likely perhaps, is that there will be some recognition of the rights of photographers whose images are used to train generative AI systems in the same way that the rights of musical artist whose work was sampled were recognised in the 80s and 90s.
Raymond is right - fields like wedding photographers will probably be the last redoubt of 'real' professional photography, where there is a desire to capture a moment. The big question is whether limited markets like that are sufficient to sustain the photographic industry that we know today.