Car buyers should have 'long, hard think' about diesel

[wyx087]

Have Tesla tested the motors for a million miles? If so how. 1hrs running of an ICE on a dyno is equivalent to 50 miles. That's 20000 hrs or 833 days, possible but plausible?

Hence why I said "according to Tesla" because I have no other proof except for their marketing blub.

But EV drivetrain on all current cars are warrantied for 8 years. Whereas no ICE get this level of warranty. Does that tell us something regarding manufacturer's confidence in its reliability?

It doesn't even show my statement is unfounded, let alone unfunded.
You stated that deals on Leafs were similar to similar sized ice cars. You have only provided outdated figures for a Leaf. Where are the figures for ICE vehicles from the same time period? The current figures I have provided though actually prove my statement to be correct, the original Leaf owner won't get any cost benefit from buying the Leaf over a similar sized ice car.

Thanks for correcting my bad spelling.

Let's look back:
This statement came out of nowhere in reply to my post on something else.

The original owner of your car probably never saw those benefits.

When presented with a source of possible truth that is different to your statement:

Back in 2015-2017, you can get a Nissan Leaf on lease for £199. Just search on hotukdeals.

You then moved the goalpost by using today's prices for comparison

Can't find any current hot UK deals for Nissan Leaf but using Google I found quotes for a Leaf at £2995 deposit and £333 a month to lease

With regard to today's comparison. I've done Kia Niro price comparisons here waaaay before your comparison between different cars:

Over 3 years 30k miles,
e-Niro is £2100 more expensive in finance payments. But fuel cost is £650 => £2750
Niro fuel cost would be £3000 to cover same distance
Therefore, ownership cost of e-Niro is cheaper than similar spec Niro. Despite the EV is slightly more expensive to buy, you end up paying less to drive the EV.

It does indeed feel like groundhog day here.

 

[srichards]

And there's the problem.


Get affordable s/h cars around the £5,000-£7,000 mark with a range of 200 miles, which is about where I would take a break on a motorway journey, and I'll start to get interested. And no battery leasing!


Currently I'm looking at 7-8 year old Peugeot 308 diesels, which will do 80mpg and can be had for under 4k.

Zoe 40 will do 110 miles without needing to charge. You can get them battery owned. They're not £7k.

If you don't like the tea at Membury then take a flask

If you don't want to stop at all then doing there and back without a stop would need a 300 mile minimum car for all weathers and all year round so you will be wasting that solar and battery storage for the next decade as it will probably be that long before a 300 mile car is down to £7k. Those cars are £30-35k new. They won't be mass produced in any numbers for several years either.

Zoe 40 is the cheapest 150 mile car you can get. There is a new model coming out later this year so that might depress the Zoe prices down for a while. That one might be 200 miles and with CCS charging so it would be quick to top back up. Won't be £7k though.

I don't think the EVs with useful range ie 40kwh batteries and up will be down to £7k for a long time. The 50 - 70 mile cars will end up scrappers as they're useless but any that do 120-150 miles on a charge keep many people happy as daily average mileage is still only about 20 miles a day.

 

[nilagin]

When presented with a source of possible truth that is different to your statement:

You then moved the goalpost by using today's prices for comparison

You are just confusing yourself. Your 2-3 yr old links to cheap Nissan Leaf deals prove nothing other than the fact that 2-3 yrs ago cheap deals were available. There is nothing there to say that even cheaper deals weren't available on similar sized ice Car's at the same time.
As prices for both EV and ice cars will have risen over the 2-3yr time period and from the current figures I have quoted, it is reasonable to assume that the same proportionate figures could apply 2-3yrs ago. As a Leaf lease right now will be more expensive and never be cost effective compared to an equivalent ice car, it is reasonable to assume the same for 2-3yrs ago. Hence the first owner or in this case the person leasing the car was unlikely to have reaped any financial benefit from choosing a Leaf over an equivalent ice car.

 

[nilagin]

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-s-model-x-battery-longevity-update/amp/
Tesla rolling out software update for their batteries as a consequence of the recent fire in China, although Tesla are still conducting their investigations.
Tesla claim that only part of the battery pack ignited and the rest was intact. That sounds great, but that was one very fierce fire with flames hitting a vehicle parked in the bay next door but one. Imagine how much worse it could have been if the whole battery pack had gone up. It's ok for Tesla to say that the car would give passengers ample warning of a thermal incident and time to get out of the vehicle, perhaps they ought to have a public warning system to tell people outside of the car to vacate the vicinity as well.

 

[nilagin]

VW predicting Ev's will still be expensive and it would take around 6 yrs for their Ev's to become profitable.
https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/volks...-cheapest-electric-car-could-still-cost-16000

 

[wyx087]

You are just confusing yourself. Your 2-3 yr old links to cheap Nissan Leaf deals prove nothing other than the fact that 2-3 yrs ago cheap deals were available.

Which is in contrast to this statement you've previously made:

The original owner of your car probably never saw those benefits.

https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-model-s-model-x-battery-longevity-update/amp/
Tesla rolling out software update for their batteries as a consequence of the recent fire in China, although Tesla are still conducting their investigations.
Tesla claim that only part of the battery pack ignited and the rest was intact. That sounds great, but that was one very fierce fire with flames hitting a vehicle parked in the bay next door but one. Imagine how much worse it could have been if the whole battery pack had gone up. It's ok for Tesla to say that the car would give passengers ample warning of a thermal incident and time to get out of the vehicle, perhaps they ought to have a public warning system to tell people outside of the car to vacate the vicinity as well.

Yes, let's concentrate on the scare tactics a bit more.

VW predicting Ev's will still be expensive and it would take around 6 yrs for their Ev's to become profitable.
https://www.autoexpress.co.uk/volks...-cheapest-electric-car-could-still-cost-16000

“so within six years.” is the actual quote. Could be 3, could be 6, but not 7 as suggested by your "around 6yrs".

Any longer, the Chinese will have their cheaper cars on the road in Europe. EV drivetrain presents less barrier to entry, there will be more new manufacturers in the future. More competition, faster pace of transition, good news for consumers all round.

 

[nilagin]

Which is in contrast to this statement you've previously made:



Yes, let's concentrate on the scare tactics a bit more.


“so within six years.” is the actual quote. Could be 3, could be 6, but not 7 as suggested by your "around 6yrs".

Any longer, the Chinese will have their cheaper cars on the road in Europe. EV drivetrain presents less barrier to entry, there will be more new manufacturers in the future. More competition, faster pace of transition, good news for consumers all round.

Explain how your provision of only half the required data makes my statement incorrect. Unless you can actually prove that similar ice cars were available for the same money and not a lot cheaper like they are now, my statement is quite solid. Certainly a lot more solid than your argument.

I never said 7yr. Again a problem with your maths.

Scare tactics?
As you consistently prove you have no real comprehension of the car manufacturing industry as a whole. Tesla have rolled out a software update for the battery management. Tesla however are still conducting their investigations however. That tells me there is quite possibly more to come, that isn't scare tactics, that's how it works.
Where are the scare tactics in stating that the fire was quite violent for just a part of the battery pack igniting? If Tesla are still investigating they will (or should) be investigating not only why part of the pack ignited but why what ever caused part of it to ignite, didn't cause the rest of it to ignite all at once, just saying the rest of the battery was protected and ok isn't enough. These are just the basic logical investigations which should take place as a matter of future safety.
So China have a heap of cheap Ev's coming. China also manufactures a lot of very poorly built and dangerous cheap vehicles. Vehicles which aren't allowed to be sold in other countries because they are so bad in crash tests. Those cheap Ev's will have to prove themselves in that respect before they can flood the world market. If they don't pass the crash tests adequately, I can't see them remaining so cheap if they are to be sold in other countries.

 

[Byker28i]

Hum, new Focus ST Wagon which gets a 280hp 2.3-litre Ecoboost motor and a-l-o-t of boot space. Swallowing up to 1,620 litres of stuff with the seats down (or 575 with them up) £33,095 , or a 190bhp diesel version with 59mpg...£30,595

https://www.motor1.com/news/349858/ford-focus-st-wagon-revealed/
https://www.pistonheads.com/gassing/topic.asp?h=0&f=23&t=1810654

A Nissan Leaf starts at £31,440 - all list prices...

 

[wyx087]

Explain how your provision of only half the required data makes my statement incorrect. Unless you can actually prove that similar ice cars were available for the same money and not a lot cheaper like they are now, my statement is quite solid. Certainly a lot more solid than your argument.

Okay, a quick search with a distinct vehicle name (I tried Golf but too many other deals came up) came up £171.90pm and £232.14pm. Similarly priced to Nissan Leaf at the time.
https://www.hotukdeals.com/deals/fo...ental-total-412560-equivalent-17190pm-2514103
https://www.hotukdeals.com/deals/fo...m-equivalent-at-vehicles-for-business-2484184
You can't extrapolate current EV price to the pre-2017, the demand for EV has gone up from 2018. There currently isn't the supply to meet the demand (I won't point fingers here), so you can no longer get as good deals.

So the first owner of my car probably paid £207 per month for Leaf, £20 per month for electricity. Whereas the first owner of an ICE vehicle probably paid £170 per month for the car, £100 per month for fossil fuel. So tell me, how did the original owner never saw the cost benefits of EV ownership?

The original owner of your car probably never saw those benefits.

edit: Skoda Octavia 1.4 petrol manual: equivalent to £203 per month. I think first owner of my Skoda probably did suffer from high ownership costs.
https://www.hotukdeals.com/deals/sk...0000pa-2490-down-24months-at-simpsons-2534587

. Tesla have rolled out a software update for the battery management. Tesla however are still conducting their investigations however. That tells me there is quite possibly more to come, that isn't scare tactics, that's how it works.

That's exactly how software bugfix works when you can issue a patch over the air to all products. If there is a 0-day vulnerability in your phone, you don't wait for next major release, you get a minor version release out of the door to fix the bug as quickly as possible, may be multiple releases as the problem requires.

You are still thinking in terms of car as something that requires dealership recall visits. We no longer live in that world, cars are now computer-on-wheels. As computers, they ought to be able to receive updates.

 

[Byker28i]

Have we mentioned Dysons plans
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/...ic-car-new-patents-show-mould-breaking-design

 

[MatBin]

Just disproving your baseless speculation with real data.


Cost have been calculated many times, it works out about equal most of the times and could be much cheaper.
Convenience is huge, never have to spend 10min away from daily routine to fill up the car anymore. It's no different to plugging in smart phones. I was one of the first to adopt the very original iPhone among peers, there were similar "it only lasts a day!" outcry. But now everyone is used to plugging them in overnight.
Performance goes hand in hand with convenience, if you always have 30% left at the end of the day, why not enjoy the car's performance? At minimal cost

It's hardly convenient if your journey is longer than the range of the car and tbh I don't want to be sitting amongst HGVs doing 55/60 on the inside lane trying to eek out as much range as possible.
My current car makes me feel nervous when the red light comes on, but I can nip into any service station and be out again, as you say, in 10 minutes, I cant do that with an EV.
How many people will be able to use this so called performance if it drains battery power away and reduces range even further and whilst ICE do the same you can fill up and be gone in 10 minutes.
I hardly think a phone and a car are the same thing, if my phone conks out of battery on the way home it's an inconvenience, the same cant be said of the car.

 

[MatBin]

I recently purchased for me a very upmarket German lump to replace my beloved Focus (cos Ford's don't do a 2 litre Focus Diesel anymore, probably due to the "Greens"), it was £18K, not a massive amount when compared to a new upmarket EV but a large amount to me, so what could I get 2nd hand in the EV range that would compare and have to fulfil the following criteria
1) 0-60 8secs or thereabouts should be easy enough for an EV, but must also satisfy 4, both required, not an either or)
2) Auto (should be easy enough, aren't they all?)
3) Stylish
4) Have a range of at least 150 miles in winter (due to my commuter requirements, no charging on-site)
5) Be happy doing a max of 80/85 on the motorway and cruise at 72/3 whilst maintaining criteria 4
6) accelerate well over 60mph
7) be worth 50% in 3 years
8) Have less than 22K miles on the clock
9) Be able to leave home and do a 50 mile round trip 10minutes after getting home, so realistically a range of over 200 miles on single charge is required
10) No leases thanks, I want to own the car, I'm retiring soon and I want to be able to keep the car beyond 2 years without a monthly payout ongoing or a balloon payment

I might think of a few other things later but that's enough to be getting on with.

 

[wyx087]

I recently purchased for me a very upmarket German lump to replace my beloved Focus (cos Ford's don't do a 2 litre Focus Diesel anymore, probably due to the "Greens"), it was £18K, not a massive amount when compared to a new upmarket EV but a large amount to me, so what could I get 2nd hand in the EV range that would compare and have to fulfil the following criteria
1) 0-60 8secs or thereabouts should be easy enough for an EV, but must also satisfy 4, both required, not an either or)
2) Auto (should be easy enough, aren't they all?)
3) Stylish
4) Have a range of at least 150 miles in winter (due to my commuter requirements, no charging on-site)
5) Be happy doing a max of 80/85 on the motorway and cruise at 72/3 whilst maintaining criteria 4
6) accelerate well over 60mph
7) be worth 50% in 3 years
8) Have less than 22K miles on the clock
9) Be able to leave home and do a 50 mile round trip 10minutes after getting home, so realistically a range of over 200 miles on single charge is required
10) No leases thanks, I want to own the car, I'm retiring soon and I want to be able to keep the car beyond 2 years without a monthly payout ongoing or a balloon payment

I might think of a few other things later but that's enough to be getting on with.

1. Easy
2. They all are
3. Haha, good luck. Most EV on the market wants to look strange for no good reason (I won't talk about ICE manufacturer motives here)
4. Easily done with 250+ miles EV's, even when hammered
5. Depending on the car, 38kWh Ioniq may be able do it while I know for sure 40kWh Leaf. It's all about high speed efficiency, where only Hyundai and Tesla are making an effort, when looking at products currently on offer.
6. Even my Leaf accelerates quite well, about same as my 2.0 TDI DSG. This is comparing cruising at 60mph and time both car reaches 75mph.
7. EV should easily do that, pre-2022 we will be in a constant shortage. So early cars will always hold their value quite well on the second hand market.
8. This would be a price constrain, due to shortage in supply, could take a while. I personally would be happier with 100k motorway miles 2 years newer EV in comparison to 30k miles older one. Battery in EV appears to degrade as they age, rather than the mileage.
9. This requirement supersedes 4, best look at 250+ miles EPA rated rather than WLTP.
10. Totally agree. We should be looking at outright purchase prices.

My current car makes me feel nervous when the red light comes on, but I can nip into any service station and be out again, as you say, in 10 minutes, I cant do that with an EV.
How many people will be able to use this so called performance if it drains battery power away

I get nervous before my ICE car fuel light comes on. I mostly fill up above 1/4. Because I have to plan my route home rather than just drive home directly using any backstreet. On the other hand, with EV, if low battery warning lights up within 5 miles home, I'm not the least bit worried, I know my car has exactly 4kWh left when the warning came up, meaning at least 10 miles doesn't matter how it's driven. The ability to recharge at home is much more convenient.

The thing with cars, as you know, is that you can use a lot of fuel to accelerate, but then to maintain the speed, it doesn't use much fuel. By performance for a road car, we would be talking about quickly accelerating up to speed limit. So drawing 200kW for 5 seconds many times in the journey won't really drain the charge. Just as a supercar driven at speed limit won't drain its fuel tank as quickly as when it is going for speed record.

 

[nilagin]

I recently purchased for me a very upmarket German lump to replace my beloved Focus (cos Ford's don't do a 2 litre Focus Diesel anymore, probably due to the "Greens"), it was £18K,

You could have got a diesel Focus ST. That uses a 2.0 diesel and 180PS. I saw a low mileage 16plate on eBay yesterday for about £16500.

 

[Byker28i]

Focus have a 1.5l diesel producing 180bhp, thats more than my 2.3D mazda, so doesn't need to be 2.0 litre? surely it's the power output.

 

[nilagin]

Okay, a quick search with a distinct vehicle name (I tried Golf but too many other deals came up) came up £171.90pm and £232.14pm. Similarly priced to Nissan Leaf at the time.
https://www.hotukdeals.com/deals/fo...ental-total-412560-equivalent-17190pm-2514103
https://www.hotukdeals.com/deals/fo...m-equivalent-at-vehicles-for-business-2484184
You can't extrapolate current EV price to the pre-2017, the demand for EV has gone up from 2018. There currently isn't the supply to meet the demand (I won't point fingers here), so you can no longer get as good deals.

So the first owner of my car probably paid £207 per month for Leaf, £20 per month for electricity. Whereas the first owner of an ICE vehicle probably paid £170 per month for the car, £100 per month for fossil fuel. So tell me, how did the original owner never saw the cost benefits of EV ownership?


edit: Skoda Octavia 1.4 petrol manual: equivalent to £203 per month. I think first owner of my Skoda probably did suffer from high ownership costs.
https://www.hotukdeals.com/deals/sk...0000pa-2490-down-24months-at-simpsons-2534587


That's exactly how software bugfix works when you can issue a patch over the air to all products. If there is a 0-day vulnerability in your phone, you don't wait for next major release, you get a minor version release out of the door to fix the bug as quickly as possible, may be multiple releases as the problem requires.

You are still thinking in terms of car as something that requires dealership recall visits. We no longer live in that world, cars are now computer-on-wheels. As computers, they ought to be able to receive updates.

Just because the supply to meet demand doesn't exist doesn't automatically mean cars become more expensive.

I doubt the ice owner would have been spending £100 / month on fuel with the mileage constraints on the lease contract. £100 easily covers my monthly fuel bill for premium petrol at 10-15p per litre extra and an average of 27mpg where a Leaf equivalent ice car will be on a minimum of 40mpg on petrol and in the region of 60mpg on diesel. If the ice car is costing that much on fuel the lease payments will be higher and the same for the Leaf. Just because the Leaf works out similar or better on that mileage plan, it doesn't necessarily follow that it will be the same on a higher mileage plan.

Not everything, even on an EV can be fixed with an over the air software update. What Tesla has issued, could well be just an interim sticky band aid to try to prevent further fires whilst they continue their investigations. That doesn't mean all cars will now be safe, it doesn't mean that other cars that have already started to develop the same fault won't also catch fire. You are being very naive if you think cars will no longer need to be returned to dealers to ensure they are safe and just shows your total lack of understanding of cars regardless of the powertrain.

 

[wyx087]

Just because the Leaf works out similar or better on that mileage plan, it doesn't necessarily follow that it will be the same on a higher mileage plan.

Are you forgetting the massive per-mile price difference between fossil fuel and electricity?
Higher mileage plan would mean higher mileage being driven, thus more saving on EV.

Not everything, even on an EV can be fixed with an over the air software update. What Tesla has issued, could well be just an interim sticky band aid to try to prevent further fires whilst they continue their investigations. That doesn't mean all cars will now be safe, it doesn't mean that other cars that have already started to develop the same fault won't also catch fire. You are being very naive if you think cars will no longer need to be returned to dealers to ensure they are safe and just shows your total lack of understanding of cars regardless of the powertrain.

*sigh* You have, again, taken my point regarding something new (for the car industry, OTA update software) out of context, made assumptions and based your conclusion on the assumption.

While what you have said could be possible, but currently no one outside Tesla knows what is actually going on, what fix is actually required.

 

[AndrewFlannigan]

Are you forgetting the massive per-mile price difference between fossil fuel and electricity?

Which brings us to the heffelump stamping around the room: 68.22% of the UK petrol price is tax. (see: https://www.racfoundation.org/data/eu-petrol-tax-proportion-total-cost-fuel) So how long do you think it will be before the government sets out to recoup the loss of that revenue? My guess is that they'll introduce a tax per mile enforced by requiring a SIM card in each electric vehicle. They'll know where you are at all times.

That'll please the civil liberties paranoics, eh?

 

[srichards]

Most of the lost revenue can be put on VED again. Do it by weight of car then those with big fat cars pay more. HGVs would also pay more.

You could also tax electricity from public charging stations and also add in meters for home charging so that those that fill up at home also pay.

There are lots of ways that don't involve having some dingbats like Crapita try and cobble together some useless IT project that doesn't work.

 

[Cobra]

UK petrol price

As an aside, Diesel has risen about 10p/L in the last 10 days I've certainly heard no mention,
and I remember the days when a 1p/L rise made the news.

So how long do you think it will be before the government sets out to recoup the loss of that revenue?

I've been saying that from almost day one of this thread, but they are more interested in how cheap EC's are to run / tax.
I'm sure the Government will more more than happy to lose the 28 billion ££ though for the sake of a greener planet

requiring a SIM card in each electric vehicle. They'll know where you are at all times.

 

[AndrewFlannigan]

Most of the lost revenue can be put on VED again.

That'll put (an upside down) smile on the sales peoples' faces: "And the VED on this car has been set at £2,500 for the coming year, sir".

 

[Nod]

They'll know where you are at all times.

If you have a mobile phone, they can find you.
If you use a card, they know where you've been.
If you drive in or out of any major town or past any traffic cameras, they know where you are.
Like it or not, they know where you are!

 

[Cobra]

Like it or not, they know where you are!

I said to the family, don't be silly, no one is listening, or tracking us, how she laughed, the kids laughed too,
and so did Alexa.

 

[nilagin]

Which brings us to the heffelump stamping around the room: 68.22% of the UK petrol price is tax. (see: https://www.racfoundation.org/data/eu-petrol-tax-proportion-total-cost-fuel) So how long do you think it will be before the government sets out to recoup the loss of that revenue? My guess is that they'll introduce a tax per mile enforced by requiring a SIM card in each electric vehicle. They'll know where you are at all times.

That'll please the civil liberties paranoics, eh?

There is already talk of all revenue from motorists being charged by the mile, regardless of the vehicle you are driving.

 

[nilagin]

Are you forgetting the massive per-mile price difference between fossil fuel and electricity?
Higher mileage plan would mean higher mileage being driven, thus more saving on EV.


*sigh* You have, again, taken my point regarding something new (for the car industry, OTA update software) out of context, made assumptions and based your conclusion on the assumption.

While what you have said could be possible, but currently no one outside Tesla knows what is actually going on.

I am not forgetting the difference in cost per mile between EV and ice. I am questioning your unrealistically high monthly fuel costs for what you claim to be the lowest lease deal you could find for an ICE which should be around 6k miles per annum. You unrealistically high fuel cost making the ice option unrealistically high.

Without investigating other cars and inspecting all other Tesla models they will have no way of knowing if their current fix is sufficient. They will need to know that the fix will not only prevent the same happening again to a car so far unaffected, they will need to inspect other cars to see if they are showing signs of also catching fire and will the fix prevent that from getting worse and eventually catch fire, they may well have to replace any cells showing signs of heat damage to ensure that no future fires do occur. What you fail to understand is that this is a serious safety issue and if they don't get cars back to dealers for inspection, they will be forced to make a recall.

 

[nilagin]

4th fatal crash where a Tesla was on Autopilot. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....pilot-fatal-crash-delray-florida-ntsb-model-3

 

[PaulF]

You didn't use get a comparable car though, it's slower, less well equipped. Here's what I found:

Current cheapest Model S: £71k with AWD, 4s 0-60, basic Autopilot included, air suspension, heated seats all round, driver setting profile, premium audio, cabin air filtration, panoramic roof, keyless entry.
I built a similar 5 series: £62k 540i with xdrive, 4.8s 0-60, no paint/seat/wheel extras (just like Tesla), "Comfort package" for elec fr seat with driver memory, keyless access and reversing assist camera, "Premium package" for a small sunroof and powered bootlid, "High-beam assist", "Concierge service", "Dynamic safety", "Seat heating front and rear", "Split-folding rear seats" (a £335 option!), "Driving Assistant Plus", "Active Cruise control with "stop and go" function", "Adaptive Suspension" (no air suspension available).

Sorry, I thought we were comparing clean EV with dirty diesel, or not quite as dirty as it's made out diesel

Even with your choice/quoted prices that's still £9k difference for the 'equivalent' EV. That's a lot of fuel, a good few years worth depending on the mileage.

 

[MatBin]

Focus have a 1.5l diesel producing 180bhp, thats more than my 2.3D mazda, so doesn't need to be 2.0 litre? surely it's the power output.

Not as torquey.

 

[MatBin]

You could have got a diesel Focus ST. That uses a 2.0 diesel and 180PS. I saw a low mileage 16plate on eBay yesterday for about £16500.

Manual box, understand the auto Ford box can be a bit iffy regards reliability etc

 

[wyx087]

Which brings us to the heffelump stamping around the room: 68.22% of the UK petrol price is tax. (see: https://www.racfoundation.org/data/eu-petrol-tax-proportion-total-cost-fuel) So how long do you think it will be before the government sets out to recoup the loss of that revenue? My guess is that they'll introduce a tax per mile enforced by requiring a SIM card in each electric vehicle. They'll know where you are at all times.

That'll please the civil liberties paranoics, eh?

If they change to charging per-mile by installing SIM cards on new cars, how much more expensive do you think ICE cars will get? Being the government, we probably won't see petrol/diesel tax reduced.

When the world introduces carbon tax, you'll see your fossil fuelled cars become a lot more expensive to run. EV will become more expensive to buy, but no change in fuel costs. Further widening the cost gap for lifetime total cost of ownership.

You could also tax electricity from public charging stations and also add in meters for home charging so that those that fill up at home also pay.

Try to tax home charging and people would just use an untaxed domestic 3-pin socket.
Public charging tax will definitely be introduced, especially at DC quick chargers that for mega mileage drivers.

Sorry, I thought we were comparing clean EV with dirty diesel, or not quite as dirty as it's made out diesel

Even with your choice/quoted prices that's still £9k difference for the 'equivalent' EV. That's a lot of fuel, a good few years worth depending on the mileage.

Sorry, I thought we were comparing like-for-like vehicles with similar performance, equipment and capability. The ICE car still lacking air suspension, panoramic roof and capability to unlock full self driving in the future, just to name 3. Mercedes E-class probably has air suspension?

WRT £9 difference:

Running cost of EV is vastly cheaper. 10p/mile on a 55mpg vs 3p/mile in an EV.

So when compare like-for-like, £36k e-Niro vs £27k Niro hybrid, you only need 128k miles on fuel costs (ignoring service cost for now), well within lifetime of both vehicles.

Can the comparable performance BMW reach 10p/mile? Tesla should be able to reach 3p/mile in everyday driving while still occasionally blast to 60 in 4s. 128k miles is easy for both cars to drive past over their lifetime.

If first owner drives 60k over 3 years, which is 80 miles commute each working day (220 per year?) with a low 2400 miles for leisure. The expensive Tesla is cost neutral when only considering purchase price and fuel cost. Then, Tesla has no hard service requirement to claim their warranty, while BMW requires ££ every X miles.

 

[wyx087]

I am not forgetting the difference in cost per mile between EV and ice. I am questioning your unrealistically high monthly fuel costs for what you claim to be the lowest lease deal you could find for an ICE which should be around 6k miles per annum. You unrealistically high fuel cost making the ice option unrealistically high.

I took a rounded figure for fuel cost, didn't read the lease details apart from price. There are so many variables with car leasing it is easier to compare cash price. But I'll play by your rules for giggles:
Even if we use the 6k annum mileage, it'll still be £50 per month. (10p/mile, 500 miles per month). 8k annum mileage in an EV (2nd HUKD link) would only cost £12.5 per month (2.5p/mile, even though it's costing me 2.1p/mile, I'll make it easier for you) So the Leaf would have cost £223 while the ICE car example cost £222. EV costs almost the same but able to drive 2k more miles.

What you fail to understand is that this is a serious safety issue and if they don't get cars back to dealers for inspection, they will be forced to make a recall.

You have a very nice amount of assumptions to come to this conclusion. I will stay out of this discussion due to my lack of knowledge regarding what is really going on.

4th fatal crash where a Tesla was on Autopilot. https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....pilot-fatal-crash-delray-florida-ntsb-model-3

Quote the important bits please, rather than scaremongering:

Investigators state that Banner engaged Autopilot about 10 seconds before the collision. “From less than 8 seconds before the crash to the time of impact, the vehicle did not detect the driver’s hands on the steering wheel,” the NTSB said. The vehicle was traveling at 68 mph when it crashed. The roof of the Model 3 was sheared off as it hit the truck’s trailer, passing underneath, and then coming to a stop 1,600 feet away.

Autopilot was never marketed as hands-free mind-elsewhere self driving.

 

[PaulF]

Unfortunately you have stated so much unsubstantiated 'facts' on this subject I tend not to take your figures as being correct, didn't really read all the ones above once you started mentioning cost per mile etc.

I do know that one thing Tesla can't do as well as the BMW is connect with the driver, yes it's party piece is blistering acceleration but read a review from a more driver focused source and it's just not that interesting to drive ref feel for the road partly due to the regen under braking.

I'd still maintain that £9k is quite a jump in initial cost and will take a good few years to break even, more than 3 at a very rough guess and an awful lot of new car buyers change their cars in year 2 or 3, ie around when the warranty is up.

Edit
Only just noticed the bit about servicing cost
Once more, please read and note down.
My BMW service cost is £499 for 120,000 kilometres or 74,000 miles.

If the Tesla or your Leaf had the same cost of servicing you would be describing it as cheap.

 

[AndrewFlannigan]

When the world introduces carbon tax

...and so back on the anthropogenic climate change bandwagon.

 

[nilagin]

I took a rounded figure for fuel cost, didn't read the lease details apart from price. There are so many variables with car leasing it is easier to compare cash price. But I'll play by your rules for giggles:
Even if we use the 6k annum mileage, it'll still be £50 per month. (10p/mile, 500 miles per month). 8k annum mileage in an EV (2nd HUKD link) would only cost £12.5 per month (2.5p/mile, even though it's costing me 2.1p/mile, I'll make it easier for you) So the Leaf would have cost £223 while the ICE car example cost £222. EV costs almost the same but able to drive 2k more miles.


You have a very nice amount of assumptions to come to this conclusion. I will stay out of this discussion due to my lack of knowledge regarding what is really going on.


Quote the important bits please, rather than scaremongering:

Autopilot was never marketed as hands-free mind-elsewhere self driving.

You can only make a true comparison between two lease plans if the mileage permissible is identical. It doesn't always naturally follow that higher mileage won't change the difference in cost bring them closer, further apart or even a reversal in cost difference.

No assumptions at all. It has to be proved whether it is a one off fault or a possible common fault with a vehicle. Why should the owners insurance have to pay out and the owner possibly lose their ncb when it is the vehicle at fault. You not only have a lack of knowledge but also lack of understanding.

Scaremongering is obviously your favourite word but there is none. I merely provided a link about a 4th fatality where a Tesla was proved to be on Autopilot. You omitted to include the important quote in the article that states that neither the driver, nor the Autopilot attempted to steer the car away from the accident. The name Autopilot itself suggests that the vehicle can be driven hands-free regardless of whether it is advertised as such, an obvious poor choice for the name of the system.
You obviously missed the recent video in the press, over the last week or so, where a Tesla was about to crash into another vehicle and the car steered itself away and around the other vehicle. Odd that the system works sometimes not all the time.
If the Autopilot system isn't designed for hands free use, the system should be warning the drivers as such if both hands are removed from the wheel and if the driver persists, the car should park itself and not move until the driver plays ball.

 

[wyx087]

Unfortunately you have stated so much unsubstantiated 'facts' on this subject I tend not to take your figures as being correct, didn't really read all the ones above once you started mentioning cost per mile etc.

I do know that one thing Tesla can't do as well as the BMW is connect with the driver, yes it's party piece is blistering acceleration but read a review from a more driver focused source and it's just not that interesting to drive ref feel for the road partly due to the regen under braking.

I'd still maintain that £9k is quite a jump in initial cost and will take a good few years to break even, more than 3 at a very rough guess and an awful lot of new car buyers change their cars in year 2 or 3, ie around when the warranty is up.

So you don't agree with my cost per mile figures? If so, please provide your own. Why must I defend the calculations I've done using real data I've collected when there is none to say otherwise?

Driver focused review? Granted, it's not the heavier and bigger Model S
https://jalopnik.com/heres-a-good-perspective-on-the-tesla-model-3-as-a-fun-1834825860

People keep forgetting that £9000 difference is on the price of the car, an asset. If both cars is worth 50% after your ownership, you only spent £4500 more.

No assumptions at all. It has to be proved whether it is a one off fault or a possible common fault with a vehicle.

You obviously missed the recent video in the press, over the last week or so, where a Tesla was about to crash into another vehicle and the car steered itself away and around the other vehicle. Odd that the system works sometimes not all the time.
If the Autopilot system isn't designed for hands free use, the system should be warning the drivers as such if both hands are removed from the wheel and if the driver persists, the car should park itself and not move until the driver plays ball.

Not proven either way yet, everything said is pure speculation.

Source? As far as I'm aware, Autopilot is only able to dodge sideways slightly if another car wonders out of their lane. Currently not able to steer itself around a vehicle into which it is about to crash. That sounds like black magic

That is pretty much how Tesla Autopilot works, you get progressive warning and then the car slowly comes to a stop, or if you take over after some delay, Autopilot won't be available until you stop the car and put it into park. There are other manufacturer's lane keep assist, where they disengage without any warning other than a little status light.

 

[MatBin]

Hence why I said "according to Tesla" because I have no other proof except for their marketing blub.

But EV drivetrain on all current cars are warrantied for 8 years. Whereas no ICE get this level of warranty. Does that tell us something regarding manufacturer's confidence in its reliability?.

unless you bought a Vauxhall with lifetime warranty (actuall it's only 100K without time limit) up until 2014 anyway.

To be fair most cars do 100K without significant trouble, one of my Focuses needed new wheel bearing, the other nothing went wrong during the time I had it, the first did over a 100K, the second over 90K, so I doubt very much if offered with 100K warranty most ICE manufacturer's woud suffer financially.
Kia, Mazda and MG offer 7 years warranty, BMW 3 years unlimited mileage. Those warranties are on the WHOLE car not just the drivetrain. So its not just Tesla that offer a long warranty, please do check your facts before posting, then again you have had that pointed out in several posts but still you continue to post half truths.

 

[MatBin]

People keep forgetting that £9000 difference is on the price of the car, an asset. If both cars is worth 50% after your ownership, you only spent £4500 more.

What planet are you on, ONLY £4500 more!!!! Tell, do you work for Tesla, we know @nilagin works for Ford he hasn't kept that a secret but your devotion to Tesla in particular and EV in general and quoting Tesla S as an affordable car or Tesla 3 as reasonably priced just makes me wonder where your bias is coming from

I think we all agree EVs are coming, not yet but they will, mainly because like diesels the Govt will "persuade" us down that route because they think it's a good one, until they realise it wasn't for a variety of reasons, which on my part is pretty much an unfounded guess, much like your continued assertion that some form of "tax" will not be levied at EVs and they will get cheaper and cheaper to run (if we ignore the fact that electricity costs are going to go up). Soon as the oil price goes up the cost of gas/electricity goes up and as the world reserves of useable oil/gas deplete the cost of generated electricity will increase, just look at what price the nuclear industry is getting for its generated electricity.

 

[PaulF]

So you don't agree with my cost per mile figures? If so, please provide your own. Why must I defend the calculations I've done using real data I've collected when there is none to say otherwise?

Driver focused review? Granted, it's not the heavier and bigger Model S
https://jalopnik.com/heres-a-good-perspective-on-the-tesla-model-3-as-a-fun-1834825860

People keep forgetting that £9000 difference is on the price of the car, an asset. If both cars is worth 50% after your ownership, you only spent £4500 more.

You don't have to defend your calculations, equally I don't have to agree with them. You mentioned somewhere that Tesla should be able to reach 3p per mile in everyday use, Fleet News have the Tesla model S at 5.17ppm for 'fuel'.

https://www.fleetnews.co.uk/car-run...&SortBy=Manufacturer&SortDesc=False&FuelType=

 

[nilagin]

Sorry, I thought we were comparing like-for-like vehicles with similar performance, equipment and capability. The ICE car still lacking air suspension, panoramic roof and capability to unlock full self driving in the future, just to name 3. Mercedes E-class probably has air suspension?

You really should catch up with the times, even Tesla are playing catch up. They have ditched air suspension for the much better adaptive suspension. I had a 1993 Mondeo with adaptive suspension. So no need to specify air suspension on the BMW as it will also have adaptive suspension as standard. More money saved on the ice car.

 

[nilagin]

unless you bought a Vauxhall with lifetime warranty (actuall it's only 100K without time limit) up until 2014 anyway.

To be fair most cars do 100K without significant trouble, one of my Focuses needed new wheel bearing, the other nothing went wrong during the time I had it, the first did over a 100K, the second over 90K, so I doubt very much if offered with 100K warranty most ICE manufacturer's woud suffer financially.
Kia, Mazda and MG offer 7 years warranty, BMW 3 years unlimited mileage. Those warranties are on the WHOLE car not just the drivetrain. So its not just Tesla that offer a long warranty, please do check your facts before posting, then again you have had that pointed out in several posts but still you continue to post half truths.

Also because Ev's are so expensive, you are already paying for the extra warranty in the cost of the car. I took out an extended warranty on my Focus when I bought it, so I have 5yrs instead of the standard 3 at a cost of £340. I am keeping my car, but at any point up to 3yrs old, I can sell that extended warranty back to Ford if I wish and get my £340 back.