Limited Budget - need advice on lens with Nikon D3100

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Name
Colm
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Bear with me. I am a VERY amateur photographer. I like taking photos at football matches. All the numbers and language when it comes to camera equipment is like listening to mountain bikers talking about their equipment!
I have a Nikon D3100. Old I know, but it works. I bought it new about 13-14 years ago, it has served us well at parties and on holidays etc. I got an AF-S DX NIKKOR 55-300mm f/4.5-5.6G ED VR for photographing 9 a side matches 2 years ago.
For 9-a-side in good day light, the photos are generally pretty good.
On a full size 11-a-side, my photos are also quite good when I am located behind a goal with the action coming towards me, again, assuming good daylight. The photos even get compliments. I generally just use Sports mode on the camera! I would post photos for feedback but at the moment, they are all of kids aged 13 and under, so I won't.
At evening games, whether under flood lights or not, or very dull days, the photos are usable but by and large, crap. I realise that the key number is f/ ....
With the help of chatgpt I tried a few settings I would not normally use:
  • Mode: M (manual)
  • Aperture: lowest available number (f/4.5–5.6 on your lens, depending on zoom)
  • Shutter speed: start at 1/800 second
  • ISO: Auto ISO, with the maximum set to 3200
  • Autofocus: AF-C (continuous autofocus)
Apart from the old camera, I know that the key limiting factor is the lens.
I used Claude and ChatGPT to get some advice... I am now looking at a used Sigma 120-300mm F/2.8 EX DG OS HSM, Nikon Fit. The "Sports" version is prohibitively expensive. I see I can find a 120-300mm F/2.8 EX DG OS HSM for about €700-€1000, depending on condition. I'd be happy to pay whatever import charges there are if I buy from the UK. Loads are available in Japan, again import charges fine as long as I know what I'm getting.
Budget permitting next year, I read that upgrading to a Nikon Z50 II (mirrorless... again... another new word!) would make another big difference (I realise I will need an Z - F adapter, assuming I keep the Sigma lens. Whatever lens I buy, I would like to be able to hold onto it whenever I upgrade the camera.

So a few questions:
1. If you used a Sigma 120-300mm F/2.8 EX DG OS HSM, were you happy with it?
2. Is my plan acceptable, or a complete waste of money?
3. Replacing the camera at the same time is just not going to happen, so will using with D3100 still produce better photos than with my current setup?
4. I see a lot of them for sale cheaply, but a common problem is Auto-Focus is not working. Is that fixable? There are a few good camera fixers around Dublin that I am aware of.
5. Are there known problems with the Auto-Focus on that lens?
6. Any other suggestions for a budget of about £800-£900?
Thanks for reading and patience.
 
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