The virus. PPE. Part 1

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Life going on as normal for us and seems to be the same for everyone else in Glasgow. There's some panic buying but pretty minor.
 
Not sure which company ,but the daughter had a parcel delivery today ,but They have been told to knock door and leave parcels on doorstep ,and sign as delivered .
Sensible I suppose as those electronic pads you sign with your finger could be a carrier..

a thief’s paradise and a nightmare for online sellers
 
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the black fox said:
Not sure which company ,but the daughter had a parcel delivery today ,but They have been told to knock door and leave parcels on doorstep ,and sign as delivered .
Sensible I suppose as those electronic pads you sign with your finger could be a carrier
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I signed for my new camera this morning, so got it all set up then gave my hands a good wash.
 
the black fox said:
Not sure which company ,but the daughter had a parcel delivery today ,but They have been told to knock door and leave parcels on doorstep ,and sign as delivered .
Sensible I suppose as those electronic pads you sign with your finger could be a carrier..

a thief’s paradise and a nightmare for online sellers
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Bugger! I accepted an Amazon package an hour ago while I was cooking and quite forgot in the turmoil of putting the dog away and so on to do the careful handling. Courier looked a bit like a zombie too :(.
 
sphexx said:
Not sure it means a lot when numbers are low. I mean if it’s doubled in 24 hours then everyone in U.K. would be dead by day 8, which I’m pretty sure is nonsense :(.
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During the initial phase of unrestricted (ie no vaccine, no natural immunity, little restriction on contact etc) growth of this contagion the doubling time appears to be somewhere between 2 to 4 days. This would continue unabated until it peaks at 60 to 80 percent infection of the population. The peak would be at around 3 to 5 months time. Present estimates of the 2019-nCoV virus suggest the R zero value at 2.2
 
jbw said:
During the initial phase of unrestricted (ie no vaccine, no natural immunity, little restriction on contact etc) growth of this contagion the doubling time appears to be somewhere between 2 to 4 days. This would continue unabated until it peaks at 60 to 80 percent infection of the population. The peak would be at around 3 to 5 months time. Present estimates of the 2019-nCoV virus suggest the R zero value at 2.2
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I guess in the early days every person the virus ‘meets’ is a potential host whereas as time goes on it will find it more and more rare to ‘meet’ an uninfected person.
 
Dave70D said:
They need to lock these fools up

View: https://BANNED/M_Davieswrites/status/1238728814110355457?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1238728814110355457&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bbc.co.uk%2Fnews%2Flive%2Fworld-51886497
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Supermarkets usually look like that early in the day from where the night shift is restocking shelves.
 
the black fox said:
Not sure which company ,but the daughter had a parcel delivery today ,but They have been told to knock door and leave parcels on doorstep ,and sign as delivered .
Sensible I suppose as those electronic pads you sign with your finger could be a carrier..

a thief’s paradise and a nightmare for online sellers
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Royal Mail are doing that here
 
sphexx said:
I guess in the early days every person the virus ‘meets’ is a potential host whereas as time goes on it will find it more and more rare to ‘meet’ an uninfected person.
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Exactly - that’s why the government has used mathematical modelling to estimate how they can deform the initial growth curve to make the number of serious cases more manageable.
If you think about it the UK population is about 66.5 million. The death rate will mostly depend on number of older people within the population ( for example - in north Italy this is quite high but in Jordan this is extremely low). Let’s be generous and say by the end of 2020 about 75%of the population have been infected - that’s approx 50 million people. If only 1% die that’s still half million deaths.
 
Is our govt prioritising the economy over health?

I can't see any valid reason for them not doing anything, herd immunity works with vaccines, but not with the walking infected. There's not enough data yet to know if people do develop an immunity, or how long that takes anyway?

I'm basically self isolating myself as much as possible now, despite not having been to any at risk zones or having any symptoms, because my wedding season is about to start and I have to minimise the chances of contracing it myself. Especially as I know one of the parents at my next wedding is immune compromised.

All the idiots on Facebook comparing it to the non-contagiuous conditions or conditions for which there are vaccines routinely administered need a slap.
 
KitsuneAndy said:
Is our govt prioritising the economy over health?

I can't see any valid reason for them not doing anything, herd immunity works with vaccines, but not with the walking infected. There's not enough data yet to know if people do develop an immunity, or how long that takes anyway?

I'm basically self isolating myself as much as possible now, despite not having been to any at risk zones or having any symptoms, because my wedding season is about to start and I have to minimise the chances of contracing it myself. Especially as I know one of the parents at my next wedding is immune compromised.

All the idiots on Facebook comparing it to the non-contagiuous conditions or conditions for which there are vaccines routinely administered need a slap.
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The problem is that people are viewing self-isolation, washing hands etc as a way of preventing getting the virus altogether.
It’s doesn’t work like that - it’s just a way of slowing the infection rate. Statistically you (and about 80 % of the population are certainly going to be infected at sometime over the next 8 months or so) - the government is just trying to prevent too many at any one time.
 
jbw said:
The problem is that people are viewing self-isolation, washing hands etc as a way of preventing getting the virus altogether.
It’s doesn’t work like that - it’s just a way of slowing the infection rate. Statistically you (and about 80 % of the population are certainly going to be infected at sometime over the next 8 months or so) - the government is just trying to prevent too many at any one time.
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How does doing nothing prevent the spread? Without social distancing, not just self decided isolation, it's not stemming the spread at all.

That's what other places in Europe and the world are doing by trying to prevent the spread by avoiding large gatherings. Whereas here we have a self administered policy that many are ignoring either because they need to go out to work, or they're idiots.
 
jbw said:
Exactly - that’s why the government has used mathematical modelling to estimate how they can deform the initial growth curve to make the number of serious cases more manageable.
If you think about it the UK population is about 66.5 million. The death rate will mostly depend on number of older people within the population ( for example - in north Italy this is quite high but in Jordan this is extremely low). Let’s be generous and say by the end of 2020 about 75%of the population have been infected - that’s approx 50 million people. If only 1% die that’s still half million deaths.
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But, so far anyway, all the deaths in uk have been people who had conditions anyway and could week have died after getting Normal flu. The more interesting stat would be how many ‘fit’ people died? For anyone under 50 it’s very very low like 0.2% so it may be that (not meant to sound as harsh as it comes across) many deaths may have happened anyway.
 
KitsuneAndy said:
Is our govt prioritising the economy over health?

I can't see any valid reason for them not doing anything, herd immunity works with vaccines, but not with the walking infected. There's not enough data yet to know if people do develop an immunity, or how long that takes anyway?

I'm basically self isolating myself as much as possible now, despite not having been to any at risk zones or having any symptoms, because my wedding season is about to start and I have to minimise the chances of contracing it myself. Especially as I know one of the parents at my next wedding is immune compromised.

All the idiots on Facebook comparing it to the non-contagiuous conditions or conditions for which there are vaccines routinely administered need a slap.
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No, I think the government is broadly getting it about right so far.
 
One thing we do better in U.K. (at last, I’ve found something:() is HMGs public announcements, eg Bojo’s recent performance — just 3 of them and probably a metre apart :). What a contrast with US style, Trump’s being particularly bad, little groups of ever changing ‘top people’ crowded together and then he shakes them all by the hand. It always did look odd that the president/governor/police chief etc has to have this usually silent group backing them :). Australia has the US model too.
 
cambsno said:
But, so far anyway, all the deaths in uk have been people who had conditions anyway and could week have died after getting Normal flu. The more interesting stat would be how many ‘fit’ people died? For anyone under 50 it’s very very low like 0.2% so it may be that (not meant to sound as harsh as it comes across) many deaths may have happened anyway.
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WHO reports the death rate as 3.4% - the U.K. estimates 2% or with luck a bit lower. Death rates do not just depend upon infection but also on the quality of health care given to the seriously ill. If too many become ill at one time then the quality of health care declines. Statically the best chance of surviving if old and with an underlying health problem is to be infected now before peak infection or well after the peak when the NHS is better equipped to cope.
 
cambsno said:
No, I think the government is broadly getting it about right so far.
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After a too slow start and not being prepared for this anyway :(.
 
jbw said:
WHO reports the death rate as 3.4% - the U.K. estimates 2% or with luck a bit lower. Death rates do not just depend upon infection but also on the quality of health care given to the seriously ill. If too many become ill at one time then the quality of health care declines. Statically the best chance of surviving if old and with an underlying health problem is to be infected now before peak infection or well after the peak when the NHS is better equipped to cope.
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I’m going for well after thanks :), though may not have a choice in the matter. I’m lucky that I can more or less self-isolate.
Regarding death rates, it may be that old males were worst hit in China as they appear still to be heavy smokers and that may have put their rate up.
 
jbw said:
WHO reports the death rate as 3.4% - the U.K. estimates 2% or with luck a bit lower. Death rates do not just depend upon infection but also on the quality of health care given to the seriously ill. If too many become ill at one time then the quality of health care declines. Statically the best chance of surviving if old and with an underlying health problem is to be infected now before peak infection or well after the peak when the NHS is better equipped to cope.
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They also depend on detection. The fatality rate in South Korea is 0.7% but they are proactively testing for it so finding more mild cases.
 
bovey9 said:
I see in the town in Italy where it started in the country, has gone from 35 cases a day to 5 a day. A little bit of good news thats not being widely reported.
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Yes very good news indeed. A while ago a virologist said that although they couldn’t know at this early stage for sure, there was a possibility the virus strain could weaken the longer it was out there. Can’t help wondering why China hasn’t seen a huge increase in figures given their population and the close proximity of people. Remember the whole country did not lockdown so it should have spread much more based on the predictions. The total recorded infections in China is a tiny percentage of the population.
 
Peter10d said:
Yes very good news indeed. A while ago a virologist said that although they couldn’t know at this early stage for sure, there was a possibility the virus strain could weaken the longer it was out there. Can’t help wondering why China hasn’t seen a huge increase in figures given their population and the close proximity of people. Remember the whole country did not lockdown so it should have spread much more based on the predictions. The total recorded infections in China is a tiny percentage of the population.
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Since a virus is not a living organism but an complex obligate parasite it has to use the RNA of its host infected cell to replicate. RNA duplication is more open to mistakes (mutations) than DNA and has a poor self checking mechanism if mistakes are made . So the virus may well mutate - it doesn’t normally pay for a parasite to kill off its host but their are exceptions of course
 
jbw said:
Since a virus is not a living organism but an complex obligate parasite it has to use the RNA of its host infected cell to replicate. RNA duplication is more open to mistakes (mutations) than DNA and has a poor self checking mechanism if mistakes are made . So the virus may well mutate - it doesn’t normally pay for a parasite to kill off its host but their are exceptions of course
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I *think* that would be where the host death is necessary for the parasite to spread which must be unlikely for a respiratory virus. BTW since we quibble over whether a virus is living (I know, I know :() can we really call it a parasite? :).
 
sphexx said:
I *think* that would be where the host death is necessary for the parasite to spread which must be unlikely for a respiratory virus. BTW since we quibble over whether a virus is living (I know, I know :() can we really call it a parasite? :).
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Yes - an obligate parasite is something not capable of reproduction of itself but needs to infect a living cell to hijack their RNA
 
jbw said:
Yes - an obligate parasite is something not capable of reproduction of itself but needs to infect a living cell to hijack their RNA
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Probably this is not the place, but you would then have to define “something”:).
I haven’t thought about this for years but I guess you’d have to fall back on way that “a species” used to be defined as ”that group defined as a species by a competent taxonomist” so “a parasite is that ’thing’* defined as such by a competen parasitologist” :).

* can’t have “organism” here as not alive :(.
 
Spain is having a 15 day lockdown, can only go out for emergencies, buy food or for work
So that is at least one person off to work from the majority of families
Sounds like a plan, just not a very good one

Resistance is futile
 
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Bobsyeruncle said:
What you mean is you're staying in? :)
You'll likely get it the first wedding you go to, if not before then.
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Maybe so, but then it won't be on my conscience if I catch it a wedding as opposed to spread it.
 
sphexx said:
Probably this is not the place, but you would then have to define “something”:).
I haven’t thought about this for years but I guess you’d have to fall back on way that “a species” used to be defined as ”that group defined as a species by a competent taxonomist” so “a parasite is that ’thing’* defined as such by a competen parasitologist” :).

* can’t have “organism” here as not alive :(.
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Virus - an nucleic molecule in a protein coat that is obliged to parasitise a living host in order to reproduce.
 
Bobsyeruncle said:
What will you do if you show symptoms 3 days before a wedding?
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Not go. Arrange cover.

We have an emergency group already set up and ready to go just in case.

Would be incredibly irresponsible to shoot a wedding while showing symptoms, or even with knowing that you've definitely been exposed.

I know that at some of my weddings coming up soon there are guests due to be there who are immune compromised.
 
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