The virus. PPE. Part 1

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It’s being reported the virus may lead to a drop in CO2 emissions. Immediately after the 9/11 twin tower bombings most aircraft were grounded and I recall it was later found the reduction in contrails had raised light levels and crop production. I haven’t seen anything about this but it will be interesting to see if the cancellation of lots of flights now has a similar effect. Despite the extra sunlight the earth loses more heat because it’s not reflected back by the contrails. I was reading recently proposals to enable aircraft to reduce contrails by avoiding the conditions that create them to offset their CO2 contribution :).
 
Donnie said:
Well the first thing I'd say about that is "who?" and I say that as there's nothing to indicate who he is other than a writer for a magazine?

The other big question really is the actual articles title is in itself sensationalist. No one has said screening will stop the spread, it can help limit and delay the spread however (in fact he goes on to say exactly that), but it's not going to sell as much as the sensationalist title used.

To go back to whoever was using the road deaths analogy the other day, he may have well have written "Why seatbelts wont stop automobile deaths."

No screening is 100%, none, for anything.

Edit to add: Additionally, you write "won't help" and he writes "won't stop" is itself contradictory.
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Not sure there is much difference between won't help & won't stop TBH.

Maybe you could explain why you find it contradictory?
 
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DK602 said:
Not sure there is much difference between won't help & won't stop TBH.

Maybe you could explain why you find it contradictory?
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I've already explained the won't stop bit in the previous message, however, the same argument I made against "won't stop" is in fact the same as your "won't help" ie it's wrong and the article you posted confirms that.
 
I see the couple from the Diamond Princess that were posting videos online are still testing positive for Corona, despite looking to have recovered. I am not certain but was it not more than three weeks ago they were originally diagnosed? This doesn't seem to equate with the 14 days that keeps getting branded about.
 
Peter10d said:
I see the couple from the Diamond Princess that were posting videos online are still testing positive for Corona, despite looking to have recovered. I am not certain but was it not more than three weeks ago they were originally diagnosed? This doesn't seem to equate with the 14 days that keeps getting branded about.
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Sorry where are you getting the information of when they were positive first time round to now?

EDIT: Ah I see that there's been a couple of articles about them both a few days ago.

Funny how you leave out the fact that the wife (one half of the couple) is negative and that the husband (the other half) has in fact had 2 negative tests and that his third one is the one that has come back positive? That doesn't tally with your thinly veiled scaremongering comment where it
doesn't seem to equate with the 14 days that keeps getting branded about.
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sphexx said:
It’s being reported the virus may lead to a drop in CO2 emissions. Immediately after the 9/11 twin tower bombings most aircraft were grounded and I recall it was later found the reduction in contrails had raised light levels and crop production. I haven’t seen anything about this but it will be interesting to see if the cancellation of lots of flights now has a similar effect. Despite the extra sunlight the earth loses more heat because it’s not reflected back by the contrails. I was reading recently proposals to enable aircraft to reduce contrails by avoiding the conditions that create them to offset their CO2 contribution :).
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There is a silverlining in everything :)
 
Donnie said:
I've already explained the won't stop bit in the previous message, however, the same argument I made against "won't stop" is in fact the same as your "won't help" ie it's wrong and the article you posted confirms that.
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Is this person qualified enough to make comment?

“What the UK is doing is following the evidence,” says David Heymann, professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “And the evidence shows that temperature monitoring or screening of passengers may pick up a few patients here and there, but it's not a security against importation of disease.”
 
DK602 said:
Is this person qualified enough to make comment?

“What the UK is doing is following the evidence,” says David Heymann, professor of Infectious Disease Epidemiology at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “And the evidence shows that temperature monitoring or screening of passengers may pick up a few patients here and there, but it's not a security against importation of disease.”
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Again you're confirming my position " may pick up a few patients here and there" hence helping.
 
Donnie said:
Sorry where are you getting the information of when they were positive first time round to now?

EDIT: Ah I see that there's been a couple of articles about them both a few days ago.

Funny how you leave out the fact that the wife (one half of the couple) is negative and that the husband (the other half) has in fact had 2 negative tests and that his third one is the one that has come back positive? That doesn't tally with your thinly veiled scaremongering comment where it
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It is not in any way meant to be scaremonering. I am mearly pointing out that at this stage the World does not have all the facts about how this virus works so we should not be complacent with isolating or test results.
But surely that is even more concerning if the husband had two negative tests followed by a positive one. Does it not suggest the testing may not be as robust as we would hope?
 
Donnie said:
Again you're confirming my position " may pick up a few patients here and there" hence helping.
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If it costs a fortune and takes resources away from areas they are better placed then it isn't helping - it's hindering.

It may come as a suprise to some but there are not limitless resources to throw at this.

The expert - unlike you thinks it is a waste of time.
 
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Peter10d said:
It is not in any way meant to be scaremonering. I am mearly pointing out that at this stage the World does not have all the facts about how this virus works so we should not be complacent with isolating or test results.
But surely that is even more concerning if the husband had two negative tests followed by a positive one. Does it not suggest the testing may not be as robust as we would hope?
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No, you worded it to cast doubt on the isolation precautions etc.

As for why he may have had 2 negatives and 1 positive, there are many reasons including false positives, human error or even the fact he may have been re exposed. It doesn't mean that the most likely reason is that he needed more than 14 days isolation like you suggested initially.
 
DK602 said:
If it costs a fortune and takes resources away from areas they are better placed then it isn't helping - it's hindering.

It may come as a suprise to some but there are not limitless resources to throw at this.

The expert - unlike you thinks it is a waste of time.
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So you think that its hindering to detect even 1 in say 1000 cases? Also, can you point out where he said it was a waste of time, I didn't see that written anywhere?
 
Donnie said:
So you think that its hindering to detect even 1 in say 1000 cases? Also, can you point out where he said it was a waste of time, I didn't see that written anywhere?
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If it costs to much and ties up lots of resources then yes IMO it's a waste of time; especially if 100 are passing through that aren't symptomatic yet.
 
Very interesting article in the link below about the S. Korean approach to testing :-

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/heal...navirus-south-koreas-aggressive-testing-gives

“If we can test more people – whether they have no symptoms, mild or severe disease – the results, including the case fatality rate, are more accurate and representative when the whole disease spectrum is taken into consideration,” said David Hui Shu-cheong, an expert in respiratory medicine at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
 
arclight said:
Very interesting article in the link below about the S. Korean approach to testing :-

https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/heal...navirus-south-koreas-aggressive-testing-gives

“If we can test more people – whether they have no symptoms, mild or severe disease – the results, including the case fatality rate, are more accurate and representative when the whole disease spectrum is taken into consideration,” said David Hui Shu-cheong, an expert in respiratory medicine at the Chinese University of Hong Kong.
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"“Given that cases typically die 1-3 weeks after onset, the case-fatality rate can artificially be reduced with an initial wave of newly diagnosed, new onset cases,” said Michael T. Osterholm, director of the Centre for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota. “Only after three weeks to a month can you calculate a reliable case-fatality rate for that group with onset the month before. So I think the case-fatality rate will go up, not down in Korea in the 30 to 60 days ahead.” "

We'll have to wait & see, but I suspect they've caught a more asymptomatic infections in their wider screening net, and as a result will see a lower fatality rate. At least everyone quoted is being a little cautious with their statements.
 
RIGHT LADS FFS
can we stop the bickering between ourselves and concentrate on what’s being reported from reliable sources not some dipstick on faceberk ...

the other point I would like to point out is unfortunately in the general population in this country we do tend to have a lot of I don’t give a flying f*** types , I even have a granddaughter that I would class in that ,I said to her tonight if you catch it you wont be able to come here
the answer was I aint sitting indoors for two weeks . This is where the danger lies teens that can’t be bothered to comply with the rules
 
To all the "just Flu bro" and "China can't be trusted."

https://www.corriere.it/salute/mala...e3-11ea-a693-c7191bf8b498.shtml?refresh_ce-cp

Italian Press.

Errrr, that is 50% hospitalisation.

Flu doesn't hospitalise 50% of people and put 9% in intensive care. Does it?!

Total Cases = 10149
- Recovered = 1004
- Died = 631
Currently Infected Patients =8514
- Home Isolation = 2599
- Hospitalized with symptoms =5038
- Intensive Care Unit =877

Let's have the "Italian smokes more, Italians have an aging population, Italians can't be trusted, Italians are corrupted." Let's have all the excuses.
 
Raymond Lin said:
To all the "just Flu bro" and "China can't be trusted."

https://www.corriere.it/salute/mala...e3-11ea-a693-c7191bf8b498.shtml?refresh_ce-cp

Italian Press.

Errrr, that is 50% hospitalisation.

Flu doesn't hospitalise 50% of people and put 9% in intensive care. Does it?!

Total Cases = 10149
- Recovered = 1004
- Died = 631
Currently Infected Patients =8514
- Home Isolation = 2599
- Hospitalized with symptoms =5038
- Intensive Care Unit =877

Let's have the "Italian smokes more, Italians have an aging population, Italians can't be trusted, Italians are corrupted." Let's have all the excuses.
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If the elderly get the flu they wont need a hospital sadly, as it will kill them just like this virus will.
 
Dave70D said:
If the elderly get the flu they wont need a hospital sadly, as it will kill them just like this virus will.
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No, there are specific treatments for flu well developed to be fair, yes it hits the elderly hardest but influenza and covid 19 are not the same thing.
 
j crossley said:
It's interesting that Western Europe have a much higher infection rate than Eastern Europe.
Likewise North America has a much higher infection rate than South America.
And Africa has hardly any confirmed cases at all.
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From what seems to be talked about from CDC / PHE / NHS etc it appears that there may be 2 factors at play there. 1. Its summer in the southern hemisphere and hence warmer but also I suspect that the western vs eastern europe is a travel thing ie theres a lot of western europe to/from Italy and China, whereas for some reason the same travel numbers dont appear to be in/out of eastern europe?
 
DK602 said:
John - I'm afraid your post goes a bit .......

99% of species that have inhabited the planet have become extinct and the overwhelming majority of this happened before humans existed so blaming humans for all the woes is not accurate.
I think you will also find that humans are the only animals that actively prevent the extinction of other species.

Let's not hate our species - there is a lot of b******t spoken about humans.
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I'll spend some time looking into ,Doug. Late response as I've been watching my Spurs team lose..again..in Leipzig.

I do despair at what I see 'us' doing but if you say it's not all doom and gloom so much the better. However, previous mass extinctions have been caused by natural events like the Yucatan asteroid approx 60 million years ago,massive volcanoes and ice melts. I've just found this article. It sets out the causes of previous extinctions. If you go to the end it sets out what humans are doing to contribute to a possible the sixth mass extinction. It's this that I find so depressing.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/prehistoric-world/mass-extinction/

Another doom-laden article in the Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/environ...ed-earth-into-the-anthropocene-scientists-say

If you have any reading to the contrary I'd appreciate any links but I think you're going to be hard-pressed to find any and the content of the two links I've attached just confirms to me that my despair at what humans are doing is well-founded. Beyond that it's clear that some time in the future it looks like most, if not all, of mankind will be wiped out anyway by some natural global catastrophic event.
 
the black fox said:
RIGHT LADS FFS
can we stop the bickering between ourselves and concentrate on what’s being reported from reliable sources not some dipstick on faceberk ...

the other point I would like to point out is unfortunately in the general population in this country we do tend to have a lot of I don’t give a flying f*** types , I even have a granddaughter that I would class in that ,I said to her tonight if you catch it you wont be able to come here
the answer was I aint sitting indoors for two weeks . This is where the danger lies teens that can’t be bothered to comply with the rules
Click to expand...

I tend to find it is the older ones who are stuck in their ways, and nothing is going to stop them going to get their paper etc.
 
Raymond Lin said:
There is a silverlining in everything :)
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The other part of the silver lining is the permanent closure of those so-called 'wet markets' where the sale of seafood is carried out alongside meat,poultry and wild animals. They cannot afford to have this happen again.It won't be on the premise of animal welfare,though but the effects on the national economy.
 
JohnC6 said:
The other part of the silver lining is the permanent closure of those so-called 'wet markets' where the sale of seafood is carried out alongside meat,poultry and wild animals. They cannot afford to have this happen again.It won't be on the premise of animal welfare,though but the effects on the national economy.
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Wet market needs to be like the new Tokyo fish market that opened last year. That is the level of hygiene we should aim for this day and age.
 
JohnC6 said:
I'll spend some time looking into ,Doug. Late response as I've been watching my Spurs team lose..again..in Leipzig.

I do despair at what I see 'us' doing but if you say it's not all doom and gloom so much the better. However, previous mass extinctions have been caused by natural events like the Yucatan asteroid approx 60 million years ago,massive volcanoes and ice melts. I've just found this article. It sets out the causes of previous extinctions. If you go to the end it sets out what humans are doing to contribute to a possible the sixth mass extinction. It's this that I find so depressing.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/prehistoric-world/mass-extinction/

Another doom-laden article in the Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/environ...ed-earth-into-the-anthropocene-scientists-say

If you have any reading to the contrary I'd appreciate any links but I think you're going to be hard-pressed to find any and the content of the two links I've attached just confirms to me that my despair at what humans are doing is well-founded. Beyond that it's clear that some time in the future it looks like most, if not all, of mankind will be wiped out anyway by some natural global catastrophic event.
Click to expand...
The daft thing is that nearly everything that is necessary to avoid or ameliorate climate catastrophe is something that is worth doing in itself :(.
 
j crossley said:
It's interesting that Western Europe have a much higher infection rate than Eastern Europe.
Likewise North America has a much higher infection rate than South America.
And Africa has hardly any confirmed cases at all.
Click to expand...

I was a looking at a map earlier showing which countries have been hit with the virus along with the number of established cases and deaths and that very aspect occured to me.I see Donnie (Paul) has put forward a logical reason.I did wonder about the cold temperatures in eastern Europe

Here's a country by country tally https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/countries-where-coronavirus-has-spread/

. I can't find,in my iMac history wherfe I saw the time lag behind Italy but I recall it was 9 days for France and Germany and 13 days for the UK. Tin hat time around the 23rd then. :rolleyes: or should it be :eek: (eek)
 
Raymond Lin said:
Wet market needs to be like the new Tokyo fish market that opened last year. That is the level of hygiene we should aim for this day and age.
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I read that a top member of the Chinese government said they must change the way they manage food production and go to a more western sytem..where hygene is prioritised. From what you say, that will include Japan and as it's on their doorstep maybe that's where they'll look first.
 
munch said:
I tend to find it is the older ones who are stuck in their ways, and nothing is going to stop them going to get their paper etc.
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Mmm. I appreciate what you're saying...lol..however, I'm not so sure they will carry on, whatever. The warnings regarding the vulnerability of the elderly, with or without underlying conditions such as heart or respiratory conditions and diabetes (I hear) have been well aired by government and more poignantly the medical professionals. They may well be stubborn but they don't want to die for the sake of a newspaper..:). I think what will happen is that younger members of a family or even good neighbours will help them avoid going out to shops .They can still take a walk,no need to be house-bound.That will reduce the risk to them substantially.
 
JohnC6 said:
I read that a top member of the Chinese government said they must change the way they manage food production and go to a more western sytem..where hygene is prioritised. From what you say, that will include Japan and as it's on their doorstep maybe that's where they'll look first.
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Sorry, John, I doubt very much, for reasons of history, that the China is likely to look to Japan to learn about anything even though it might be a good thing to do :(.
 
sphexx said:
Sorry, John, I doubt very much, for reasons of history, that the China is likely to look to Japan to learn about anything even though it might be a good thing to do :(.
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Good point,Richard. I forgot about that history. Probably why the politician quoted 'western systems' then.
 
JohnC6 said:
I'll spend some time looking into ,Doug. Late response as I've been watching my Spurs team lose..again..in Leipzig.

I do despair at what I see 'us' doing but if you say it's not all doom and gloom so much the better. However, previous mass extinctions have been caused by natural events like the Yucatan asteroid approx 60 million years ago,massive volcanoes and ice melts. I've just found this article. It sets out the causes of previous extinctions. If you go to the end it sets out what humans are doing to contribute to a possible the sixth mass extinction. It's this that I find so depressing.

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/prehistoric-world/mass-extinction/

Another doom-laden article in the Guardian https://www.theguardian.com/environ...ed-earth-into-the-anthropocene-scientists-say

If you have any reading to the contrary I'd appreciate any links but I think you're going to be hard-pressed to find any and the content of the two links I've attached just confirms to me that my despair at what humans are doing is well-founded. Beyond that it's clear that some time in the future it looks like most, if not all, of mankind will be wiped out anyway by some natural global catastrophic event.
Click to expand...


https://naturalresources.house.gov/imo/media/doc/Moore Testimony WOW Ov Hrg 05.22.19.pdf
 
JohnC6 said:
I was a looking at a map earlier showing which countries have been hit with the virus along with the number of established cases and deaths and that very aspect occured to me.I see Donnie (Paul) has put forward a logical reason.I did wonder about the cold temperatures in eastern Europe.
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Lots of other variables, here, though - e.g., population densities, connections to heavily affected areas, and the accidents of fate that allow a rapidly growing epidemic to become established in one region a couple of weeks earlier than in another (which might be all that separates Italy and the UK). And perhaps above all, the extent of testing - how many invisible infections are there in countries that aren't monitoring the situation properly? This is a bad enough problem in the US, where an initially flawed test has been deployed too narrowly - how much worse might it be in countries with less sophisticated healthcare systems?
 
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