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Car buyers should have 'long, hard think' about diesel
- Thread starter Mr Bump
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For the umpteenth time. Average life expectancy is based on the average use of a car. Life expectancy grows as more is expected of a vehicle. Back in the 50yrs or more years ago vehicle life expectancy was much shorter, not just for mechanical reasons but also corrosion of the body. Advancements in both has seen life expectancy grow. Once a car gets to around 10yrs old some people will not bother with proper regular maintenance, if it passes an MOT, happy days, if not they get it fixed, but the rest of the car goes without maintenance. Such use will likely shorten a vehicles life expectancy. Some cars will maintained properly, mainly be used for long motorway journeys, suffer less wear etc. and likely to last way beyond the average life expectancy. That leaves the cars in the middle which will much more likely make the average life expectancy.
Life expectancy isn't just how long a vehicle will last but also how long a customer is expecting it to last. As I said some people lose interest in maintaining a vehicle after it reaches a certain age, mileage or value.
When people buy cars some like to research how much it would be to maintain, whether they are prone to certain things needing replacing after a certain amount of time or mileage due to failure outside of the usual service and maintenance schedule. That is why the article saying the Nissan Note doesn't normally suffer any major failures requiring expensive work is relevant proof that Nissan do make ice vehicles conforming to the 13-15yr average.
Actual documentation is impossible to provide because their are so many different parts to a car all doing different things so will operate a different amount of times plus car manufacturers take a dim view of having their documentation of any sort reproduced without their consent. So as I have no wish to jeopardise my job nor pension you have two choices, accept what I say and you will have learnt something, or continue to disbelieve me and remain ignorant.
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It will be voluntary redundancies. Ford are offering relocation to other plants for anyone wishing to stay with the company. I have been through the exact same thing almost 6yrs ago when Ford closed the Dagenham Stamping plant. One of my workmates actually relocated to Bridgend, I wonder if he will come back to Essex.
Bridgend is the sole supplier for the 1.5 petrol engine, no mention has been made which plant will build it instead, but I am wondering if they will move production to the Dagenham plant to make up for falling demand in diesel engines.
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Doubt they'll get 1700 volunteers, and although they might offer relocation, will they offer that to everyone?
Not that everyone would want to relocate.
You make it sound like a good thing.
But then, you'd never listen to any criticism of Ford
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I never said it was a good thing but seeing as I had to go through the exact same thing 6yrs ago, I know for a fact it isn't as bad as it may seem.Doubt they'll get 1700 volunteers, and although they might offer relocation, will they offer that to everyone?
Not that everyone would want to relocate.
You make it sound like a good thing.
But then, you'd never listen to any criticism of Ford
Apparently around 2/3rds of the workforce are over 50. Anyone over 55 can take early retirement and get the voluntary redundancy package as well. Anyone between 50 and 55 can also take both but can't start getting their pension until they turn 55.
Redundancy package is 1 weeks wages with shift rate per years service up to the age of 40, for every years service it will be 1.5 weeks with shift rate. On top of that there is 9 months pay with shift rate, then another 12 weeks for breach of contract. Plus because they will be required to carry on building engines until February, there will be approximately another 6 months wages which they will accrue weekly so long as there is no disruption to production. According to the BBC, the average wage at Bridgend is £45k. The closure will involve management, not all management will be local people they come from various other Ford locations so some of them will likely relocate. For people who do relocate, Ford pay for estate agent and solicitor fees as well as the actual move, all the employees have to pay for is their new home.
When car production ceased at Dagenham and the assembly plant closed in 2002, many employees relocated to the Ford Transit plant in Southampton, and as I said, one of my workmates relocated to Bridgend in 2013, so there is every chance that some may decide to relocate. Anyone who does move to another plant is given a month to decide if they like the new job, if not they can still take the voluntary redundancy and early retirements.
For those leaving the company, Ford will also pay for training courses so people will have a better chance of finding alternative work. A few of my previous workmates went on plumbing courses, brick laying, block paving etc. bought themselves vans and some tools and set themselves up in business as handymen and are doing quite well out of it, others had hgv lessons and tests paid for. The only people likely to suffer will be the local support industries.
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Mr Bump
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FORD close another ICE only plant
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-48533790
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-48533790
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It's already being discussed in this thread.
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Being discussed in the thread long before you started clapping your gleeful little hands over the misery of 1700 people's misfortune.
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Mr Bump
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not clapping just another business with poor view of the future.
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Mr Bump
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nope just another nail in the coffin foe ICE only motoring, car makers need to get a grip and move on.
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That's exactly what they are doing, unfortunately it costs jobs in the process. If you weren't so smug about things and actually did some research before posting, you would find that Ford aren't an ICE only manufacturer.
You would also find that the new car numbers are falling for all manufacturers. Even Tesla numbers are falling since last year.
Ford predicted the previous financial crash, realigned their plants and production and as a result, didn't have to file for bankruptcy like others nor seek bailouts. Nor did they have tens of thousands of stock piled cars sitting around and few orders coming in like many other manufacturers when the scrappage scheme was introduced. Ford were taking orders and building cars. Ford have foreseen another crash coming and are systematically streamlining their business around the world. Also the demand for the particular engine Bridgend builds isn't that high to make it worthwhile keeping the plant open as customers are specifying a different petrol engine instead. There is a higher performance mild hybrid version of the latter engine going into production soon which will lower demand for Bridgend's engine even further.
So how about you get a grip and do some research.
I suspect I am on Mr Bump's ignore list from some of his earlier comments. I don't think he appreciates me correcting him when he starts his usual trolling.
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So, you are saying there is no industry-wide, agreed standard that most manufacturers use. Each manufacturer have their own internal testing procedure and assessment criteria, so you can only reveal your company-specific document (not sharing that is correct move). In another words, each manufacturer test and assess their products differently.
That is problematic if you are comparing manufacturer produced figures. Which looks like we are no longer doing? You seems to want to compare real-world figure against manufacturer prediction model. (which raises more alarm bells)
Considering EV have zero maintenance powertrain, does that mean those early failures that is due to poorly maintained powertrain should disappear and make EV's average life expectancy longer in the real world?
Even taking your word for your expertise experience and after all that explanation, taking Nissan's "our EV battery will last 22 years, outlast car by 10 years" to mean Nissan EV's is expected to die 3 years earlier than similar class cars still feels very far fetched, too many assumption and baseless statement. Your original quote:
That's really good!
Do Ford require any firmware engineers for their future EV's
Do they have R&D centre in UK? I know Dyson is opening (opened?) one near Oxford......
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So, you are saying there is no industry-wide, agreed standard that most manufacturers use. Each manufacturer have their own internal testing procedure and assessment criteria, so you can only reveal your company-specific document (not sharing that is correct move). In another words, each manufacturer test and assess their products differently.
That is problematic if you are comparing manufacturer produced figures. Which looks like we are no longer doing? You seems to want to compare real-world figure against manufacturer prediction model. (which raises more alarm bells)
Considering EV have zero maintenance powertrain, does that mean those early failures that is due to poorly maintained powertrain should disappear and make EV's average life expectancy longer in the real world?
Even taking your word for your expertise experience and after all that explanation, taking Nissan's "our EV battery will last 22 years, outlast car by 10 years" to mean Nissan EV's is expected to die 3 years earlier than similar class cars still feels very far fetched, too many assumption and baseless statement. Your original quote:
That's really good!
Do Ford require any firmware engineers for their future EV's
No I am saying there is a standard expectancy that manufacturers work to and that is set by whatever the average is at any given time. Currently that is an average of 13-15yrs. There is no documentation to say manufacturers have to meet that target, but if a manufacturer wants their cars to have a good reputation bringing in repeat sales as well as new first time sales they should endeavour to ensure they at least meet that average or surpass it, not fall short of it. For a car to reach It's life expectancy, it will be a major expensive part that requires replacing, an expense that far outweighs the value of the vehicle.
The testing carried out is standard across all manufacturers and ultimately that testing is the same use as how the vehicles are used and maintained by customers.
So Nissan will have tested the Leaf in exactly the same way as an average motorist would use a car. From that they have discovered that from use and recharging the battery will have an average lifespan of 22yrs. From the same testing they have determined that the average Leaf will have reached its life expectancy at 10-12yrs. This is Nissans own admission not something I have made up to belittle EV's. You asked for proof that an ICE Nissan doesn't have a similar life expectancy and the proof I provided is that the average Nissan Note meets the 13-15yr average by not needing any major work. So if by their own findings the Leaf reaches It's life expectancy earlier and they have assured us it won't be the cost of replacing the battery as that is going to last another 10-12yrs, then by simple process of elimination the only expensive item that could require replacement is the powertrain. They could just as easily have been talking about their engines lasting 22yrs exceeding the life expectancy of their ice cars by 10years, by process of simple elimination that means it will be the gearbox that fails earlier.
That doesn't mean all EV's will have the same life expectancy. As service schedules are now allowing for greater mileage and time between services (some vehicles are now at 18 month and 24 month intervals) it means that ice powertrains are improving and should last longer and as such life expectancy should also increase.
No Ford don't need any engineers, they are in the process of getting rid of engineers not hiring.
Yes Ford do have an R&D facility in the UK, It's where I have worked for the past 6yrs. It has been there since 1967, it was for quite a number of years, the largest R&D facility in the UK. Not only does it carry out work for its own vehicles, but also other manufacturers, race car teams, supercar manufacturers but also carries out work for the government.
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One more thing I don't understand, if all manufacturers test to a standard life expectancy, how come some manufacturers' cars seem to last longer than others? Toyota have reputation for reliable vs Fiat "fix it again tomorrow" springs to mind.
The proof I asked is actual release from car companies to similar to Nissan's EV PR, regarding your 13-15 years claim.
Nissan Note lasting 13-15 years doesn't really line up with your current average of 13-15 years. Think about it, for real world "data from garages across the UK" saying Nissan Note lasts 13-15 years in the real world, then it means the cars were produced 13-15 years earlier, engineered 15+ years earlier. What were the car's life expectancy back in early 2000's? Probably shorter than the real-world data.
Hence, I still don't think the Nissan Note example you've given is a valid comparison.
I'm not saying I don't believe your knowledge. I'm just pointing out logical flaws and assumptions you've made.
I think combining above 2 points would allow us to arrive at similar conclusion, but using a more logical way with more uncertain language to highlight assumptions:
1. all news cars are currently build to life expectancy of 15 years (ref: post #3333 from industry expert)
2. older cars lasted 13-15 years according to real world data (ref: that Nissan Note link pages ago), may be longer than manufacturer estimates when the car was new
3. Nissan estimates their current EV battery to last 22 years, out last their car by 10 years. This gives a whole car life expectancy that is shorter than current industrial norm
Therefore, Nissan EV may not last as long as other similar cars manufactured at the similar time.
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You are unlikely to get a manufacturer releasing such a statement. Had Nissan just made a statement of the battery being good for an average 22yrs it would have been fine. But they dropped a changer by saying the battery will outlive the car by 10-12 years. I was shocked at the 10-12 year average, hence I looked up what the average is for all cars. There are a lot of low friction materials now used in engines as well as advancements in the lubricants used so I expect to see life expectancy grow further, proof being in the longer periods and greater mileage between services.
The current average is merely a benchmark to aim for. I would expect manufacturers to be aiming beyond that point and the latest cars will take us beyond the current average.
All makes of cars will last to varying degrees, some longer, some less the bulk in the middle makes the average.
If Fiat are as bad as you say, how come the Punto costs the least in yearly maintenance costs as mentioned in the same article as the Nissan Note?
People always refer to German engineering and build quality being far superior, I have seen German cars dismantled in the workshop at work, they really aren't that much different especially for the extra they cost over other cars.
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https://www.at.ford.com/en/homepage/news-and-clipsheet/news/2019/6/Sustainability-report-Europe.html
That is already having a grip and moving on.
What's your employer doing for the future?
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BP's ultra fast charger network.
https://news.google.com/articles/CB...C1ldi1jaGFyZ2Vy0gEA?hl=en-GB&gl=GB&ceid=GB:en
https://news.google.com/articles/CB...C1ldi1jaGFyZ2Vy0gEA?hl=en-GB&gl=GB&ceid=GB:en
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Car manufactures seems increasing want every repair to be about replacing a while assembly rather than a single faulty part.
VW gearstick sensor failure? whole new gearstick for £600. https://www.briskoda.net/forums/top...sensor-faulty/?do=findComment&comment=5253210
Leaf washer failure? £450 whole new washer bottle: https://www.speakev.com/threads/450-washer-bottle.20775/
By the time car is beyond 10 years, who in their right mind will pay those kind of prices? Cars are understandably becoming more and more complex, yet, it seems the skills at workshops are being designed out at the same time. We may have seen the last of long lasting and cheap-to-repair cars, as noted in the garage statistics (15 years old car in garage survey => early 2000's budget cars)
I visited Fully Charged Live on Friday. Very nice event, loads of stuff going on. There's electric converted DeLorean, classic BMW 8 series, classic Aston Martin, Nissan Skyline, and even putting Tesla motor in a classic Fiat Panda (I think, it didn't have label and it is a work in progress). There's loads of different home energy storage solutions, there's loads of EV sales company, charger company and a few repair garages.
On that day, I drove my 80 miles range cheap first-generation EV 140 miles, costing me less than £4 total. I only had to stop for 20min quick charge. I stopped at my plan A lakeside, it was very pleasant, relaxing and very few people around. But out of pure curiosity, I checked out the MK charging hub. There were 8 Polar quick chargers there, 6 cars were charging. Next to it, Ionity are also building 4 150kW chargers (or 350kW?). This is a fantastic last-resort location (not nice surrounding, being a coach station). Milton Keynes is a model for EV charging in terms of coverage and availability.
Pics: View: https://m.imgur.com/a/erQZ4zd
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I noticed this with Honda, I had a front lower rear control arm bush that needed replacing and their parts department said the arm came as a whole unit at a whopping cost of £600. I usually replace these things in pairs so that would be a huge £1,200. Did some of my own investigation and found you could buy just the rear section with the bush already in place for £80. So £160 for the two, a hell of a lot cheaper!
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£450 for a washer bottle, which I assume includes the pump, is excessive. As is £600 for a new gear stick assembly. A short throw gear stick assembly upgrade for my car is £462 but that would be a low volume production part.
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All very well but what do we do in areas like NY Moors where you already struggle to find a normal filling station.
Where would that go exactly ^
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Some diesels are looking quite enticing at the moment! You can get a 3-4 year old 330d with low mileage for <20K. It's more economic, powerful and cheaper than the 330i
It does make going for a petrol that little bit more difficult
It does make going for a petrol that little bit more difficult
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Here's a question that struck me yesterday while looking at a line of very expensive cars charging up at a service area: you're driving along and you realise the charge is perilously low. There's just enough to get you to the nearest charging area and you arrive to discover it's not available. It's not like you can thumb a lift to the next station and come back with your little can of electricity to get you home, is it?
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Need more chargers.
The problem with EV charging now, as you've shown in the picture, is the low amount of them and how vast majority of them are unattended. So you may arrive at a charging location and found it completely dead or does not work.
Most petrol stations are attended, there is people in the shop to make sure there's zero problems with refuelling.
In the future, hopefully, we will see EV charger next to shops/restaurants and/or hotels, with staff having basic training on how to reset the charger or get the charger going and then allow you to pay over the counter. Just like a petrol stations.
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So who will pay for this big infrastructure expenditure?
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There is now more public charge points than petrol stations in the UK.
I haven't a clue where the nearest to me are though.
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How many charge points versus fuel pumps?
That would be a better comparison.
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Wouldn't an even better comparison be how many charges per unit time versus how many litres delivered in the same unit time? You can get a lot of litres delivered per petrol station per hour but It takes a long time to deliver one charge to one car.
As I've noted above the number of charge points is not the key but how much charge is delivered per unit time. If electric cars become common you'll either need a lot more charging points or you'll need to speed up the charge cycle.
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That signage looks quite new to me. Are they new charging points waiting to go into service rather than existing chargers that have both failed?
EV technology is currently in its infancy. I’m sure we will see gains in battery performance (charging speed/time as well as range). The fact remains that majority of charging will be made at home as average daily mileage is less than 100 miles per day. Longer trips will require charging on route but that should get quicker as technology moves on and the up take of EVs is greater. On a longer journey most stop at least once for around 30mins which could be ideal for topping up battery levels (you won’t be planning to drop as low you do with a diesel tank. You would probably be looking to recharge at around 25-50%. It will be more of a top up than a full recharge). All charging points will be interconnected and communicating with your car so it will know exactly what charge points are available or not and just redirect you just like google maps/traffic aware sat nav’s avoids traffic jams.
I think our mindset with change once we get used to EVs. Petrol/diesel means people try to eek out every last mile from a tank before refilling. With EVs I think we will get used to rechargeing more often especially at home.
I’ve been reading up on EVs and PHEVs recently as my company altered the way they do company cars. I didn’t go for an EV as the current models available to me didnt have enough range for potential daily business mileage, and sadly all the PHEVs disappeared off the list but many weren’t that economical once the electric battery charge had gone. I’ve ended up going for a petrol hybrid as whilst it’s not a true electric only/plug in hybrid it’s more the technology/style of future (minus the dropping of the petrol part), and on a 3 day demo it smashed the mpg I get with my current diesel car. Weirdly driving a hybrid had a calming influence on my driving style so I’m looking forward to hopefully a more relaxing journey and the potential benefits of less stress and going with the flow whilst driving.
I live about 10 miles from Milton Keynes. Whilst it’s one of those marmite places I’m impressed with their council’s progressive views on EVs. They seem to have taken to moving towards an electric future in a big way. Their take up of various grants available for charge point installation is quite impressive. If you look on charging map apps like zap-map the number of charge points available is huge. They even have a EV centre in the shopping centre to aid the take up.
https://evexperiencecentre.co.uk/
The rollout of a fast charger network is going to be needed especially for motorway services. I can foresee a company in the future working out a way to implement a system of interconnected home charging points where you could set time periods (whilst your out and not using your driveway/parking spot that allows others on the same charging network as you to use your home charging point whilst you are not using it (paying for the electricity used of course). In return you get access to the same home charge network to charge away from home. Home chargers are going to be installed anyway, why not massively increase the number of away from home charger points available to EV users with minimum extra outlay. Its easy to make the dumb home charger sockets a little more intelligent enabling setting a period of availability with mobile access to unlock and charge a user for their electricity usage. It just needs the right incentive for home owners or even business owners to aid the take up of such an idea.
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Majority of EVs will charge during the night at home as average daily mileage is currently below 100 miles per day. It’s only longer journeys that we will need a top up recharge on the go. We currently have EVs with 200-300 mile ranges. In time that will increase as they develop battery technology and take up increases. My car had a range of roughly 600-650 miles before I need to fill up. The wife’s car has about a 350-400 mile range. We aren’t far from that technology for my wife’s replacement now, just need to make it a little more cheaper. The biggest issue I feel is where the electricity to charge EVs is going to come from. It’s a lot of power plants to build in a short time.
It’s larger vehicles like HGVs, coaches and busses that are going to be the interesting development as small cars are easier to develop.
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As mentioned several times already, EV isn't in It's infancy, it predates the ICE.
Not everyone can have a home charger, on my road alone I would say less than a third of the houses could have one. Where my son lives I would say the possibility is even less.
Home chargers are little more than trickle chargers. That would be a long time to have someone else's car parked up on your drive.
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For take up for large scale EV use such as replacing every petrol/diesel car in the UK it’s in its infancy as the infrastructure isn’t in place. Home chargers are at present little more than trickle chargers but they will improve in the future too as the need arises. Technology only develops as and when there is a need for innovation otherwise it’s just not a viable business. The problem is we need a standardised approach across the country for a suitable and viable infrastructure to remove the current stumbling blocks.
In Milton Keynes they are already addressing the issue of lack of driveways. If you can’t install a home charger or there isn’t an on street charger near you already they will install an on street charge point near your home to enable you to charge an EV. I’m guessing as EV ownership increases in your street additional on street chargers will be installed. It’s not perfect but it’s a move in the right direction by the council.
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There are more public charging stations than petrol stations, yes, correct statistically speaking. But for en-route charging, vast majority of those locations only have 1-2 chargers, meaning you pray to heavens that no one is using it when you need it.
In contrast, if you are driving a Tesla, vast majority of Tesla en-route supercharging stations are 6-8, some 12 chargers per location. It's a network that is actually dependable.
For comparison, Ionity, funded by multiple existing large manufacturers, is only installing 4 chargers per location.
Bulk of initial install cost should be from car manufacturers. After all, a start-up car manufacturer managed it, why can't existing multi-billion car manufacturers? The cynic in me thinks it's because lack of motivation, because continue to sell ICE cars is too profitable, change is too costly.
There are 2 types of charging:
- Destination charging: you park up and plug in, doesn't matter how fast it charges, hours later when you want to leave, the car is fully charged.
- En-route charging: you want quickest possible charge rate.
So, home chargers doesn't need anything faster than trickle charge. You park up overnight and it's fully charged in the morning. No driveway? Take a look at how MK solves that.
En-route charging need to be as quickly as possible and have fast turn-round. But on the other hand, when you arrive at a service station, would you rather have the car parked for 15min while you use the facilities, followed by 5min of waiting for recharge at petrol station style location, or park+charge the car for 15min while you use the facilities and come back to drive off?
So it's a balancing act, I think anything less than 30min en-route charging time is perfect, this is currently achievable in new Tesla and Audi E-tron, recovering over 150 miles within 30 minutes. (or first generation Leaf, rapid charges back to 80% in 30min, but doesn't cover much miles)
Power network are built to handle peak rate. Vast majority of EV miles should come from plugged in overnight using destination charging speed. So there is loads of spare capacity in the network when EV's tend to be parked up and connected.
Another benefit of connected EV batteries is that it is able to enable more renewables. Renewables are unpredictable in their production, on really sunny days, sometimes the grid actually pays people to use electricity. A automated "smart" charger is able to take advantage of this super cheap electricity.
Eg. https://octopus.energy/agile/
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Caught half a news story this morning about an island near Madeira (IIRC) where cars are solar charged during the day then plugged into the grid overnight to provide electricity for the no-sun night. Might not work here in the UK, although my little solar trickle charger is doing its stuff even though it's more than a little overcast at the moment!
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Home chargers don't have to be fast. Filling the car over night is more than enough for most people and the standard 7kw home charger isn't going to struggle with anything available at the moment. The bigger battery cars mainly allow owners to charge less often.
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But the example was to hire out your home charger to someone else, whilst you aren't using it. That is a long time to lose the use of your driveway. I am intrigued to know where these car owners are going to be all day whilst their car occupies your drive too.
The Milton Keynes idea won't solve the problem for everyone. I seldom get to park in the same place everyday, my son would have the same problem where he lives.
When I get home from a late shift, I am lucky to even find a parking space in my road.
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By start up car manufacturer you are referring to Tesla, they were founded in 2003, first went into production in 2008, but never had any public chargers of their own until 2012, they relied on what was already in place.
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