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Heat wave
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I cut mine before the heatwave started,
its hardly grown since.
No doubt it'll grow 6 inches over night if the predicted storms hit
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Horatio Nelson
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why do you then?
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I'm not. That's the entire point of every post I've put on this thread...Actually look at the data over a representative timescale, rather than just accepting the prevailing narrative. If the data showed we are up the proverbial creek without a paddle then I'd fully accept it. But it doesn't, and as with many topics these days, no challenge to the accepted position can be tolerated.
As I've previously mentioned, we're told climate change will lead to more extreme weather, more storms, more hurricanes. But the data shows nothing of the sort, it shows there are less of them now than in the pre-industrial era. Nowhere have I said the climate isn't changing. I've said it's not anything like the problem it's made out to be, and that position is supported by any data set you care to look at. It's different, but nothing out of the ordinary when looking at temperatures on geological timescales.
We have forest fires in Southern Europe at present, but is that unusual in the hottest, driest part of the year? No.
I'm sure at some point we'll have floods. But rivers have always flooded, it's a natural thing. What isn't is building lots of houses on flood plains. So climate change gets blamed for floods, which are inevitably described as devastating. But it's nothing to do with climate change, and everything to do with building things in the wrong place.
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I can almost see the sand grains in your ears and hair as you typed that out. .........
But seriously, its all very well looking at this in geological timescales but it doesn't help to solve the problems that this and the next few generations will face. And the wonderful biodiversity that will perish and fade away.
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OP
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I've been happily sitting under the patio table brolly until today. Infact we have two brollies up. I had to come inside at 1.00pm.It was 39C.It's now 42C 107.6F in old money and tomorrow is forecast to be even hotter. Beggars belief. The only time I've experienced temperatures like this was in Phoenix AZ. I walked out of the hotel and into a wall of heat and rapidly retreated into the hotel wondering how they coped in summer and worked. OK in the hotel with air con but outside ?
On the 1.00pm news today Prof Corrine Le Querre ,FRS...climatologist East Anglia University, said that what they had been predicting for a few years ahead was now with us and said it was directly attributable to human causes. A met Office contributor said another factor was the current La Nina (Pacific ocean)
I can understand why the metereologists are telling us it's a danger to life. I went out to the front to the car and three 17/18 year old girls walked by with not much top covering and shorts . I mentioned the temp under our brolly and suggested they get out of the sun..which would be even hotter by some margin as it really is dangerous. They were very good and agreed to was a bit much and would be home soon and that they had sun cream on.
A near neighbour has had his lawn sprinkler on for the past two days. It was on when I looked out of the back bedroom window at 2.15am this morning.
Interesting read re La Nina. https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/stubborn-la-niña-persists
Geneva, 10 June 2022 - There is a high probability that the ongoing protracted La Niña event, which has affected temperature and precipitation patterns and exacerbated drought and flooding in different parts of the world, will continue until at least August and possibly to the northern hemisphere fall and start of winter. This is according to a new Update from the World Meteorological Organization.
On the 1.00pm news today Prof Corrine Le Querre ,FRS...climatologist East Anglia University, said that what they had been predicting for a few years ahead was now with us and said it was directly attributable to human causes. A met Office contributor said another factor was the current La Nina (Pacific ocean)
I can understand why the metereologists are telling us it's a danger to life. I went out to the front to the car and three 17/18 year old girls walked by with not much top covering and shorts . I mentioned the temp under our brolly and suggested they get out of the sun..which would be even hotter by some margin as it really is dangerous. They were very good and agreed to was a bit much and would be home soon and that they had sun cream on.
A near neighbour has had his lawn sprinkler on for the past two days. It was on when I looked out of the back bedroom window at 2.15am this morning.
Interesting read re La Nina. https://public.wmo.int/en/media/press-release/stubborn-la-niña-persists
Geneva, 10 June 2022 - There is a high probability that the ongoing protracted La Niña event, which has affected temperature and precipitation patterns and exacerbated drought and flooding in different parts of the world, will continue until at least August and possibly to the northern hemisphere fall and start of winter. This is according to a new Update from the World Meteorological Organization.
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OP
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A truly hardy bunch.
D
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This is a good timeline of temperature, but it was produced several years ago so current temp is out of date.
What it shows is that it hasn't been this hot in the last 20000 years, and more importantly, there has never been such a rapid increase in temperature in that timeline either.
There are no sudden spikes in temperatures pre the industrial revolution over that time.
Before this, the last heat spike was 56 million years ago, but during that it took 20000 years for the temp of the earth to rise 6 degrees C. Our "goal" is to try and limit the temperature rise to 2 degrees C over the next 28 years, which puts the rate of increase into some persepective.
xkcd.com
What it shows is that it hasn't been this hot in the last 20000 years, and more importantly, there has never been such a rapid increase in temperature in that timeline either.
There are no sudden spikes in temperatures pre the industrial revolution over that time.
Before this, the last heat spike was 56 million years ago, but during that it took 20000 years for the temp of the earth to rise 6 degrees C. Our "goal" is to try and limit the temperature rise to 2 degrees C over the next 28 years, which puts the rate of increase into some persepective.
Earth Temperature Timeline
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Very good and very illustrative of where we are at the moment.This is a good timeline of temperature, but it was produced several years ago so current temp is out of date.
What it shows is that it hasn't been this hot in the last 20000 years, and more importantly, there has never been such a rapid increase in temperature in that timeline either.
There are no sudden spikes in temperatures pre the industrial revolution over that time.
Before this, the last heat spike was 56 million years ago, but during that it took 20000 years for the temp of the earth to rise 6 degrees C. Our "goal" is to try and limit the temperature rise to 2 degrees C over the next 28 years, which puts the rate of increase into some persepective.
Earth Temperature Timeline
But if you go back 275 million years (as some people prefer to do), its not so persuasive.........
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I knew it was going to be hot, we were expecting 30 degrees here, but earlier I decided to clean the windows and was pumping sweat after just a few mins, checked the temp on my phone and it's telling me 34! that would be the hottest we've ever had here - it doesn't feel that hot, because we have some cloud cover - but as ever when it's warm in Ireland the humidity is the killer
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I’m so glad to be part of this forum where we have a superb selection of experts on Brexit ,politics, covid and other diseases. The coming Third World War , and now weather experts .. and even johnC6 has realised that todays tit Monday Rofpmsl
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Who knows, some of us might even be right.
sphexx
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Actually, quite a few of us have been right about Brexit, Putin, Global Heating so far.
On the last, although nothing is certain, it’s often forgotten that Global Heating was a prediction rather than explanation after the event
.That sounds familiar. I remember visiting a client in a dorp which was well off the main road from Windhoek to Swakopmund. It had a dried up watercourse running through it and I asked the manager when it last had water in it. He hadn't a clue, although he grew up there, and called a much older man who worked in their stores. He reckoned it was in his grandfather's time, but reckoned it would flood again if the rains came at the right time.
Of course, there's a town in the Northern Cape (South Africa) called Hotazel. It is ... and I've been in a few other towns in the old Northern Transvaal, now more or less Limpopo, and the Lowveld that can get very hot too.
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These forums are only a place for casual chatter about current affairs and no expertise is required or expected.
However, I have found the expertise that some people bring from their day job is often useful. and even without professional expertise, contributors can still provide useful ideas, insights, links to relevant references, and triggers to make me think about things I might not have thought about otherwise.
In the years, I have been following hot topics, I must have followed up and read hundreds (probably thousands, if you include follow on links) articles, scientific papers, news reports, data sources, and other relevant information that I might never have read, if it hadn't been for these forums.
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Well, the prediction for 40c summers here was to be 2050. So we are 28 years early...
(also, it isn't weather - it is Climate)
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I had to google that
Agreed, and thankfully people have stop posting with their caps lock stuck on and typing FACT,
as if it adds extra credence to their speculation.
It didn't quite hit 40oC here that's supposed to be tomorrow.
But its still low 30's now, and low night time temps 23 -24oC
That's normally what we expect on a decent summers day, here in my quaint little fishing village
sphexx
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I had to google that
Agreed, and thankfully people have stop posting with their caps lock stuck on and typing FACT,
as if it adds extra credence to their speculation.
It didn't quite hit 40oC here that's supposed to be tomorrow.
But its still low 30's now, and low night time temps 23 -24oC
That's normally what we expect on a decent summers day, here in my quaint little fishing village
It got to 36° outside today, a degree more than forecast. Tomorrow is forecast 39°.
About 24-5° In this single storey house. I had the windows opened all night which got it way down yesterday but they are not forecasting low 20°s until maybe 6am which is a bit to late to make a lot of difference. Shutters would be good if it becomes a regular thing or aircon in one room.
OP
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Ok. A reasonable post..unlike the one I referred to above.
When you say "look at the data over a representative time scale" it would be useful,as you've obviously looked, to present it here. I posted graphs of both emmisions and temperatures going back to the 1800s. I've done a bit of digging and,as you say there's no definitive evidence that global warming has caused more storms,hurricanes or any othe type of extreme weather but what scientists are agreed on is that these events are becoming more intense,more frequent and longer lasting. I read a paper by NOAA..National Oceonic and Atmospheric Administration. (US Government body) I expect you'll know that. Last updated this month.
"It is premature to conclude with high confidence that human-caused increasing greenhouse gases have had a detectable impact on past Atlantic basin hurricane activity, although they are strongly linked to global warming"
I'll just jump to your last sentence as that's the one that caught my attention most. It's here.
"So climate change gets blamed for floods, which are inevitably described as devastating. But it's nothing to do with climate change, and everything to do with building things in the wrong place"
First off we're not just talking about urban UK. Low lying countries in the less developed world are badly flooded..One of the most vulnerable being Bagladesh. That's down to rising sea levels caused by global warming in two ways. First, glaciers and ice sheets worldwide are melting and adding water to the ocean. Second, the volume of the ocean is expanding as the water warms. The flooding in Germany last July was caused by a severe storm and continuous rains that caused rivers and streams to swell up and flood the towns and cities located alongside the banks of the river Ahr .When the soil and the water bodies were no longer able to absorb the excess water, it spilled out in nearby areas causing catastrophic damage to towns.
I read this definition of floods. "Floods are described as sudden onset events where normally dry land is inundated with an overflow of accumulated water that it is unable to absorb.'
The mechanism is to be found in the fact that as climate change warms up the atmosphere the air can hold 7% more water vapour for every one-degree Celsius rise in temperature so when this air rapidly cools heavy rainfall follows causing floods. Since 1976 humans have increased the CO₂ concentration 27% from 330ppm to 420ppm by emitting 100 times more CO₂ than all the world's volcanoes combined. Without that one aspect in the greater scheme of the timeline of pollution then it's not unreasonable to assume (as a lay person in these matters ) that we wouldn't have had so many severe weather events.
I agree that building on flood plains is responsible for much flooding of houses and businesses but the floods (ie in rivers) in the first instance are increasingly being caused by climate change in the form of severe rain events. In fact,Tewkesbury..9 miles from where I live has been hit hard a couple of times due to flooding ..catastrophically in 2007 (as was Gloucester) because it's just downstream of where two rivers meet. The Severn floods days after heavy rainfall in the Welsh mountains .
I'll drop out of this debate,Richard. It's almost like arguing about what's in the Bible. The answer is that somewhere in it is the answer any individual wants to promote.
In the meantime ,as a storm fan..
I shall be very disappointed if, here in Gloucester, we don't see thunderstorms as this system breaks down from Tuesday night into Wednesday. We miss a lot of weather due to the Welsh hills.An Edit after posting. I started this post before our evening meal and then got caught up with TV news. I returned,finished it ,posted it without thinking to check if there had been other posts. More participants in the discussion and a lot covered, I see.
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Would have a long way to go, at least up here in the NW reservoir levels are around 70%+ with Cumbria at 99% so plenty of water yet.
sphexx
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24° indoors and 21° outside — wrong way round! Despite having windows open all night, no breeze I think,
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Yes. It was in the mid 30s and it was so hot that nearly forty years later people are still talking about it. Meanwhile, I think in 40 more years' time we'll be talking about 40 degrees as "the good old days".
lindsay
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British people seem comfortable living in the past - the summer of 76 (heat and drought), hurricane of 87 (Michael Fish), World Cup 1966, WW2, but rarely seem to look forward to the future and changing things. Maybe that's just my impression. Adapt or die is the reality of climate change.
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The Five Live phone-in has just started (9.00am) and it's abou this heat wave and of course Climate change. The first subject lasts for one hour and sometimes two depending on the subject and no doubt the amount of calls coming in. Climatologists will be on hand.
Just about to have brekky under the patio brolly. It's 30C (86F old money) bit of a breeze. Just given postie a bottle of water out of the fridge. He was really pleased.
Just about to have brekky under the patio brolly. It's 30C (86F old money) bit of a breeze. Just given postie a bottle of water out of the fridge. He was really pleased.
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Apart from the fact it is the planet at stake, the misinformation and misdirection is similar to that created by the smoking industry when it was known that smoking killed.
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I'm thinking about getting the type of shutters you see on the continent.
Those wind down metal ones should help keep the heat out a bit.
Those wind down metal ones should help keep the heat out a bit.
I suppose the past offers an edited version of reality. We tend to remember the upsides, the personal positives, and put the parts we'd rather forget aside ... but I agree with your summing up.
Ability to adapt was probably key to our species' survival, and I expect it will remain so as the challenges are overcome and others grow. Our survival, as a species, is irrelevant to the planet and most animal and plant species though.
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There is a song about that
But yes I agree, a lot of people seem more comfortable looking back than forward for some strange reason.
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Yeah, wasnt there a big flood 2000 years ago that some bloke built a boat for?
Seriously, your second point is valid, locally they keep building on land that has flooded before, so what do they expect to happen in the future???
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Yep there is a lot of that happening here also
Although they did take a hint a few years back, there was field designated for houses close to the Ouse.
A large board proudly announced "new houses coming soon"
Shortly after we had a very wet winter and the water was 2 feet up the legs of the advert
The houses have not been built
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As a Scot who has lived and worked in Scotland, Wales and England, my impression is that this much more an English thing than a British thing.
Maybe that's because, at least for the Scots, we haven't had a past comfortable enough for us to want to stay living in it. In spite of it being interspersed with some great achievements.
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If he is in the Severn Trent area, you may not use a sprinkler unless you have a meter. I have used a sprinkler a couple of times on the vegetable patch but this is for basic food and I have a meter. I would never consider watering the lawn; they always seem to recover. If this was Germany, your neighbour would have been reported immediately.
Dave