The Football Thread - Season 2017/2018

Status
Not open for further replies.
StewartR said:
Does anybody here know how the Champions League draw is constructed? I was surprised to see Bayern and PSG drawn together, because I would have thought they'd be seeded. Then I was surprised to see Barca with Juve. And then Real with Dortmund.

What I've done below is list who's in each group, and I've added their rankings according to ESPN's "Soccer Power Index" metric. This is the only metric I'm aware of that attempts to put all teams, including from different leagues, onto a single comparative scale. I'm sure it's not perfect but equally I'm sure it's not hopeless. So anyway this is how it looks:

Group A: Manchester United (8), Benfica (15), CSKA Moscow (21), Basel (28)

Group B: Bayern Munich (2), Paris St-Germain (4), Celtic (24), Anderlecht (25)

Group C: Chelsea (9), Atletico Madrid (10), Roma (13), Qarabag (32)

Group D: Barcelona (3), Juventus (5), Sporting (22), Olympiakos (26)

Group E: Liverpool (16), Sevilla (17), Spartak Moscow (28), Maribor (31)

Group F: Manchester City (7), Napoli (11), l Shakhtar Donetsk (20), Feyenoord (29)

Group G: Monaco (12) , RB Leipzig (18), Porto (19), Besiktas (23)

Group H: Real Madrid (1), Borussia Dortmund (6), Tottenham (14), Apoel (30)

It turns out that I was right to be surprised. The top 6 teams - and regardless of how accurate the SPI rankings are, I think most people would agree they are the top 6 - all all drawn into 3 groups. Groups B and D really are complete non-events, other than seeing who comes a distant 3rd and qualifies for the Europa League. Group E is embarrassingly weak. Group C looks like it could be a tight 3-horse race, and Group G might be tight.

But honestly, how on earth is the seeding performed?
Click to expand...

Pot 1 has the winners of europes top leagues in it regardless of their overall ranking.

Pot 2 has the top ranked teams not in pot 1.

Pots 3 & 4 carry on from there, all based on the mystery that is the UEFA co-efficient system.

You can't play anyone from the same country in the group stages.
 
Has Oxlade-Chamberlain got the best Agent in the World! :eek:

He is apparently wanted by a load of clubs, including Arsenal wanting him to stay, and has been for years, without anyone ever putting in a bid afaik. :thinking:

I have always rated him as a player, and I don't think Wenger has given him a good go at Arsenal, but lets be honest, he can't regularly get into an Arsenal team yet is apparently worth 10's of millions and a potential contract in the region of £200k a week. :eek: So he can't get into the Arsenal team, and would he get into the Chel$ki and Liverpool teams atm? I'm not so sure, yet he is linked with them. Like I said, has he got the best Agent? :rolleyes:
 
maximum points for cardiff city im in heaven at the moment long may it continue
 
Swissy said:
I'm amazed RB Leipzig get a rating of 18 that's surely a mistake?
Click to expand...
Why? You mean they should be higher, because they finished 2nd in the Bundesliga last season?

I dunno. If you look at the ESPN ratings for the Bundesliga [here], they reckon that Bayern and Dortmund are far ahead of the rest. I guess Dortmund's rating is influenced by their decent run in the Champions League last year, including two draws against Real Madrid. The next five (Leverkusen, Hoffenhiem, Leipzig, Schalke and Gladbach) are all much of a muchness, according to ESPN. Perhaps Leipzig don't score so well on the rating system because they had an amazing run of form in the early season last year (8 consecutive wins) but then faded a bit towards the end; the rating system attempts to calculate how good each team is now, not how good they've been over the last season.

Compare the Bundesliga with the English Premier League [here] and you'll see that the English top 6 are all rated as poorer than Bayern and Dortmund but better than those other 5 German teams; and those 5 German teams are in turn better than anyone else in England outside the top 6. Overall that seems reasonably fair to me.

I did say "I'm sure it's not perfect but equally I'm sure it's not hopeless".
 
StewartR said:
Why? You mean they should be higher, because they finished 2nd in the Bundesliga last season?

I dunno. If you look at the ESPN ratings for the Bundesliga [here], they reckon that Bayern and Dortmund are far ahead of the rest. I guess Dortmund's rating is influenced by their decent run in the Champions League last year, including two draws against Real Madrid. The next five (Leverkusen, Hoffenhiem, Leipzig, Schalke and Gladbach) are all much of a muchness, according to ESPN. Perhaps Leipzig don't score so well on the rating system because they had an amazing run of form in the early season last year (8 consecutive wins) but then faded a bit towards the end; the rating system attempts to calculate how good each team is now, not how good they've been over the last season.

Compare the Bundesliga with the English Premier League [here] and you'll see that the English top 6 are all rated as poorer than Bayern and Dortmund but better than those other 5 German teams; and those 5 German teams are in turn better than anyone else in England outside the top 6. Overall that seems reasonably fair to me.

I did say "I'm sure it's not perfect but equally I'm sure it's not hopeless".
Click to expand...

No, I was surprised they were rated so highly, given their lack of European experience.
 
Swissy said:
No, I was surprised they were rated so highly, given their lack of European experience.
Click to expand...
Well there you go. You though their rating was perhaps too high; I thought it was perhaps too low. Maybe it's about right.

The thing is though, it's quite hard for any rating system to make good comparisons across leagues. There's lots of data to rate German teams against one another; there'a lots of data to rate English teams against one another; but the only direct evidence last season of English strength vs German strength was Manchester City vs Gladbach, Tottenham vs Leverkusen, and Arsenal vs Bayern. That's a bit thin.
 
cambsno said:
Wenger OUT!!!
Click to expand...
I think for probably the first time I think I agree. I'm obviously not an Arsenal fan, but they were lazy and toothless today, and Wenger didn't seem that bothered, give a reason for it, or say what he planned to do about. I feel for their fans after that. Liverpool were very good, but Arsenal didn't make it that hard. They were lucky to only lose by 4 though.
 
Wenger hasn't lost the plot, he's lost the players...

World class striker left on the bench. Potential World class LWB played out of position. Danny Welbeck is training on a farm next week, that way he may be able to hit a barn door....

The whole thing was an embarrassment...

Simon, I agree, the time has come for Wenger to go....
 
Arsenal are on a dramatic downward spiral.

Wenger has been great for the club previously, but it does appear that the longer they keep him as manager, the bigger the hole is going to be for the next manager to drag the club out of.
 
I think, Lee Dixon, hinted at the issues at Arsenal in his commentary. It would seem, that Wenger has lost control, of the players in the dressing room. Once that is gone, it's inevitable but regrettable, what the next step has to be. Great manager, who has, outstayed his welcome. Time to move upstairs.
 
Jelster said:
Wenger hasn't lost the plot, he's lost the players...

World class striker left on the bench. Potential World class LWB played out of position. Danny Welbeck is training on a farm next week, that way he may be able to hit a barn door....

The whole thing was an embarrassment...

Simon, I agree, the time has come for Wenger to go....
Click to expand...

Who is the lwb?

Picking welbeck was a joke, so too persisting with monreal when we had kolasinic and mustafi on the bench.

Same old crap, no passion or organization. Didn't we have this last season, the one before that, and the one before that?
 
Jelster said:
Sead Kolosinac. He was LB/LWB in the Bundesliga team of the year last season... But Wenger seems to think he's a CB...

Time
To
Move
On
Click to expand...

Was he, personally preferred Hector of Koln but from what I have seen of Kolosinac I really like him and think he could do well in the prem.

This playing the wrong people is baffling - we can call argue about some players (like should Walcott ahead of Welbeck?) but to play Bellerin on the left, Monreal at the centre and Welbeck ahead of Lacazette or Giroud is strange and not many would agree with that. Add in playing the Ox when he leaves 2 days later????
 
Jelster said:
Wenger hasn't lost the plot, he's lost the players...

World class striker left on the bench. Potential World class LWB played out of position. Danny Welbeck is training on a farm next week, that way he may be able to hit a barn door....

The whole thing was an embarrassment...

Simon, I agree, the time has come for Wenger to go....
Click to expand...


Crisis at Arsenal shout the media - really, only 3 games gone? Whilst bad, it's just a blip surely that'll be solved when the transfer market is over.

A clear out of the disinterested players is exactly whats needed, Oxlade chamberpot, Sanchez probably Ozil too.
You could see Sanchez's head go down after the second goal, before that he was chasing around, what looked like the only player giving an effort...
Gibbs quite rightly looking to go. He's been wasted at Arsenal with out games or played out of position.

No idea what the cooking pot (la cruesette) was doing sat on the bench. He looked a brilliant purchase.

However as a spurs shareholder - I'd say keep Wenger in :D
 
Byker28i said:
However as a spurs shareholder - I'd say keep Wenger in :D
Click to expand...

As a lifelong Gooner and season ticket holder, my only repost is "what you won lately" ;)

On a serious note, I think that Ozil will stay, but a few need to go. I just don't understand why Wenger tries to play so many players out of position. He'll have Cech on the left wing next!
 
Blimey - Arsenal are getting heavily raided in the final couple of days, leaves Wenger with no time to react. Are they going to be able to field 11 players? :D
 
Byker28i said:
Blimey - Arsenal are getting heavily raided in the final couple of days, leaves Wenger with no time to react. Are they going to be able to field 11 players? :D
Click to expand...

Even if he could react he would buy rubbish or good players and make them rubbish!!!
 
Weird transfer window. Players want to leave Arsenal, :eek: players seemingly don't want to go to Chel$ki. :confused: Oxlade-Chamberlain, Llorente and Barcley didn't want to got to the Champions. :thinking:

Clubs not wanting to sell, and sticking to their word. :eek: van Dijk stays, Coutinho stays. :eek: Although for some reason the Spanish transfer window closes tomorrow,:thinking: so Coutinho could still go. But the Liverpool owners seem pretty determined not to sell. They seemed to be determined not to sell Sakho for less than £30m, but have sold him for £26m. :rolleyes: I wanted them to stand their ground. :(
 
Looks like the TV money is starting to talk, clubs turning down big money to keep the players. I think we are getting into a new era where more players will run down their contracts and choose where to go, and those that are purchased will be more expensive. It's all about development and replacement now. Clubs won't sell top players without a replacement, and players want to move for their own development.

Arsenal got silly money for Ox, he's not as good as Walcott on the wing, not good enough in central midfield, and not really defensive enough to be a wing back. He says Liverpool have offered him a CM role, but you'll see him play out wide, because that's all he knows...
 
I've really enjoyed watching the Coutinho saga unfold.

Barcelona: 80 million Euros for Coutinho?
Liverpool: He's not for sale.
Barcelona: 100 million Euros?
Liverpool: He's not for sale at any price.
Barcelona: 130 million Euros?
Liverpool: Look, which bit of "not for sale at any price" did you not understand?
Barcelona: 150 million Euros?
Liverpool: Doh.
 
StewartR said:
I've really enjoyed watching the Coutinho saga unfold.

Barcelona: 80 million Euros for Coutinho?
Liverpool: He's not for sale.
Barcelona: 100 million Euros?
Liverpool: He's not for sale at any price.
Barcelona: 130 million Euros?
Liverpool: Look, which bit of "not for sale at any price" did you not understand?
Barcelona: 150 million Euros?
Liverpool: Doh.
Click to expand...

And poor, sorry I mean unfortunate Philippe has been in tears about it all. :( According to his friend Neymar anyway, whose move started Barca wanting him in the first place, as I doubt they would want him if he had stayed where he was. :rolleyes: They would definitely not have considered paying so much for him, and may not have had enough money without the Neymar cash anyway. :rolleyes: So Neymar made Coutinho cry. :LOL:

It is interesting that no one seemed to have made a bid for van Dijk. I know Liverpool said they would not make a bid unless invited to after the suspected tapping up claims, but I expected Chel$ki or someone else to have put in a bid. :confused:
 
redhed17 said:
It is interesting that no one seemed to have made a bid for van Dijk. I know Liverpool said they would not make a bid unless invited to after the suspected tapping up claims, but I expected Chel$ki or someone else to have put in a bid. :confused:
Click to expand...

Wenger was thinking about it, as he needs a new Centre Forward :rolleyes: :D :)
 
redhed17 said:
Btw, I think Oxlade Chamberlain chose Liverpool over Chel$ki because he was promised a heated seat on the bench with his name on it. ;) :LOL:
Click to expand...

Seriously, he'll play a handful of games as CM then he'll be stuck out wide, I'm almost inclined to put money on it....
 
Can anyone explain what Walcott was doing last night - offside more than on, and no touch at all! Very poor 1st half, though Giroud looked good and typicaly Ospina gave away a goal!

Was hoping to have gone but tickets not on general release, so annoyed to say the least to see so many empty seats there!!!

Been to a couple of Koln home matches so the atmosphere did not surprise me - great fans and a shame they couldn't have gone home with more than a great goal. Ticket allocation really needs to be looked at in future. Horn has impressed me in the past but poor for 2nd goal and possibly 3rd, shame Hector went off injured, 1st choice LB for Germany and very versatile, would suit the Prem I think!
 
Has everyone seen the financial results Manchester United published today?

Total revenues £581.2m
Operating profit £80.8m
Tax expenses £17.3m
Net debt down by £47.8m to £213.1m

The total revenues and operating profit were records for any football club.

Like them or loathe them, you can't deny this is a very well run business. When the Glazer family took over, I feared the worst, but I'm very happy to have been proved totally wrong.
 
StewartR said:
Has everyone seen the financial results Manchester United published today?

Total revenues £581.2m
Operating profit £80.8m
Tax expenses £17.3m
Net debt down by £47.8m to £213.1m

The total revenues and operating profit were records for any football club.

Like them or loathe them, you can't deny this is a very well run business. When the Glazer family took over, I feared the worst, but I'm very happy to have been proved totally wrong.
Click to expand...

Alternatively, the real figures -

A UEFA report in January showed United had the highest net debt of any club in world football, while the club's reported total debt for the fiscal year of 2016 stood at £363.4million. That is the figure that hasn't moved.

Lies damn lies and statistics
 
pooley said:
Alternatively, the real figures -

A UEFA report in January showed United had the highest net debt of any club in world football, while the club's reported total debt for the fiscal year of 2016 stood at £363.4million. That is the figure that hasn't moved.

Lies damn lies and statistics
Click to expand...
Indeed. I'm a statistician by training, so I know how to lie with statistics. But in this case I don't think I am.

Firstly you should expect United to have high net debts, simply because they're the one of the biggest clubs. Everything about them is big in absolute terms, including their debts. What I would suggest is more relevant are the other figures reported by UEFA in the same page: debt-to-revenue ratio (1.0x for United) and debt-to-assets ration (0.8x). On those metrics United look more comfortable than both Milan clubs, both Moscow clubs, Roma, Monaco, etc. It's a big debt but it's clearly manageable.

Secondly total debt isn't necessarily that important. If I owe you £10 million and you owe me £11 million, my total debt is £10 million but that's not a concern. If I owe you £10 million and some other bloke owes me £11 million, it's only a concern if I don't trust the other bloke to pay me back; but if that were the case I'd have taken a hit on the balance sheet and I wouldn't be showing the £11 million. The main concern with total debt is the potential vulnerability to unforeseen risks - for example if that other bloke gets sued for a huge amount of money and is bankrupted - but then we're into much more subjective issues related to the quality of the debt rather than the quantity.

Thanks for the heads-up about the UEFA benchmarking report though. It's fascinating reading. If anybody else is interested, it's here:
http://www.uefa.com/MultimediaFiles/Download/OfficialDocument/uefaorg/Finance/02/42/27/91/2422791_DOWNLOAD.pdf
 
Last edited:
StewartR said:
Has everyone seen the financial results Manchester United published today?

Total revenues £581.2m
Operating profit £80.8m
Tax expenses £17.3m
Net debt down by £47.8m to £213.1m

The total revenues and operating profit were records for any football club.

Like them or loathe them, you can't deny this is a very well run business. When the Glazer family took over, I feared the worst, but I'm very happy to have been proved totally wrong.
Click to expand...

Interesting. That seems to suggest that they're paying down the net debt in preference to extracting profits. Not what people thought would happen.
Although I wonder who holds all the debt. If it's the Glazers, they're making a killing!
 
Llamaman said:
Interesting. That seems to suggest that they're paying down the net debt in preference to extracting profits. Not what people thought would happen.
Although I wonder who holds all the debt. If it's the Glazers, they're making a killing!
Click to expand...
It's not what I thought would happen.

I don't think it is the Glazers who hold the debt. As I understand it, they borrowed £600m+ to buy the club, and then loaded the debt onto the club's books, so logically the debt would have been held by the banks or hedge finds or whoever originally financed the deal.
 
Burnley up to joint 6th :wideyed:
Wouldn't be surprised if Sean Dyche is offered the Everton job.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top