The virus. PPE. Part 1

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Timing will be the big issue. Peak demand could be as close as two weeks away by current predictions. How many ventilators will we have by then, from whatever source?
 
Retune said:
Timing will be the big issue. Peak demand could be as close as two weeks away by current predictions. How many ventilators will we have by then, from whatever source?
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Maybe we could use the EU scheme we have been invited on???

The worst thing about that is the way the story has changed. A bit like my dog eating the homework!!
 
nilagin said:
The govt already has 8000 ventilators coming aside from the tens of thousands of ventilators they have asked British companies to make.
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And some reports are saying we could need 30000 of them within the next month and none of the new ones will be ready by then.
 
cambsno said:
Maybe we could use the EU scheme we have been invited on???

The worst thing about that is the way the story has changed. A bit like my dog eating the homework!!
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We're not joining it because we're not in the EU.

Oh wait, we just didn't get the right email.

Oh hang on, we don't actually need them...

The lies so far just on that, amazing anyone trusts this lot.
 
sphexx said:
Though most of the press reports say something Company X is beginning to make Y thousand ventilators but beginning to make doesn’t tell us how many they are producing per week. I must say, I have wondered why they say 10,000 rather than 100,000 if they are only beginning :).
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We already have around 8k ventilators. Plus the 8k expected within the next couple of weeks, One UK manufacturer has tripled their production, Dyson expect to be in production within a couple of weeks, plus other companies also collaborating within the UK.
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&s...BhAC&usg=AOvVaw3dCB4Zu4hhIu3PJljJ8omH&ampcf=1
 
I'm listening to the Stephen Nolan phone-in. 9-midnight. I've been listening to a man of 40 who has just been discharged from Ulster hospital and was in ICU. He's been describing what I can only describe as the horror of it. Just to go to what he said just before I came on here..He and his family have not long returned from Florida. Maybe he picked it up there. people are driving there from NY to get away from the virus there.

First off he had a stye on the eye. The Dr precribed an antibacerial cream . It became worse, very large. Soon he was having difficulty breathing and went to A&E and twice tested negative but they kept him in. At some point the Drlooked at him and saw the difficulty he was having breathing ..he was grey in the face too..(too little oxygen in his system,I assume)and took him to ICU and onto oxygen. The man likened it to trying to breathe under water.

So, I've done some Googling and cannot find the answewr to this question.Why was he hit so badly and others not ?

The reason I ask is that he is 40 years old and has no underlying health issues. He doesn't smoke and doesn't drink alcohol yet he gets this full blown COVID-19. What I can't find an answer to is why some people,.infact most according to medical people , get a mild form and others have a near-death experience and, of course others die ? There are some members on here that are very knowledgeable about viruses . Does this virus have different potencies ? I thought a virus was a virus. As I say, he had no underlying issues otherwise I wouldn't be questioning why he had been hit so badly when so many others just suffer mild symptoms and I've heard that some have it without even realising it. I'm just wondering if it's the immune system. Some people have stronger immune systems .

I'll go back and carry on listening. There are some stupid callers who say it's no worse than 'flu., Infact last night a man from Bristol who had been for a walk onto the Mendips yesterday afternoon got back to his car and was approached by police who he likened to the Stasi especially after Cumbrian police broadcast footage of a middle-aged couple on the moorlands with their retriever(by the looks of it) He thinks someone informed the police about him. He was on his own and had seen no-one so he blamed the farmer. He was complaining about why he wasn't allowed to go on such a walk in an isolated environment and that the government had gone OTT and shouldn't be telling him he can't go for a walk in an isolated area. Getting there in his car risking an accident or an accident falling on the moors was lost on him. He actually said that he wasn't moved, he didn't care were his words, about nurses crying on TV pleading for people to stay at home. he didn't like it when Nolan threw those words back at moments later and refused to engage about that. He probably realised he shouldn't have said that.What he was really angry about was his contact with the police who, reading between the lines gave him short shrift. Another caller came on and Nolan wanted them to discuss it but the man put down the phone. It's amazing what people are calling in to say.
 
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nilagin said:
The govt already has 8000 ventilators coming aside from the tens of thousands of ventilators they have asked British companies to make.
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I take it you've read the link posted.

The government insisted it was on track to deliver tens of thousands of ventilators.
Is that the same government that said there was plenty of PPE.

Chris Hopson, chief executive of National Health Service Providers, on Thursday said a shortage of ventilators was already a “real issue” for hospitals in London. It's clear that they [hospitals] will run out of critical care capacity, probably by the weekend”.
So already an issue now not in the coming weeks.

Edward Argar, junior health minister, said the NHS would start to see a “steady delivery” of 8,000 ventilators “over the coming week, two weeks, three weeks”.
Officials have indicated 30,000 would be required in total. I suppose a junior minister is easier to throw under the bus.

Dyson, the vacuum maker, on Wednesday said it had received a government order for 10,000 ventilators that it designed in 10 days. It expects to begin deliveries in “weeks”,
The government said this hinges on the ventilators passing regulatory and safety tests.
So still to pass regulatory and safety test, I wonder how long that takes.

But businesses already involved in the production of medical devices have questioned the government’s approach, arguing that it should have engaged more with specialist suppliers.
“The government appears to be much faster to communicate with the non-medical ventures than they do with the existing medical device supply chain,” said an engineer at one company who asked not to be named.
So companies that make and supply medical equipment have not been approached.
But that's OK we have Dyson (make good hovers), Airbus (make good planes) Nissan and McLaren (both make good cars) not quite the same as producing ventilators.
EDIT I've just your last post so Ford are involved as well, so how many are packed and ready to go.
 
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tarric said:
I take it you've read the link posted.

The government insisted it was on track to deliver tens of thousands of ventilators.
Is that the same government that said there was plenty of PPE.

Chris Hopson, chief executive of National Health Service Providers, on Thursday said a shortage of ventilators was already a “real issue” for hospitals in London. It's clear that they [hospitals] will run out of critical care capacity, probably by the weekend”.
So already an issue now not in the coming weeks.

Edward Argar, junior health minister, said the NHS would start to see a “steady delivery” of 8,000 ventilators “over the coming week, two weeks, three weeks”.
Officials have indicated 30,000 would be required in total. I suppose a junior minister is easier to throw under the bus.

Dyson, the vacuum maker, on Wednesday said it had received a government order for 10,000 ventilators that it designed in 10 days. It expects to begin deliveries in “weeks”,
The government said this hinges on the ventilators passing regulatory and safety tests.
So still to pass regulatory and safety test, I wonder how long that takes.

But businesses already involved in the production of medical devices have questioned the government’s approach, arguing that it should have engaged more with specialist suppliers.
“The government appears to be much faster to communicate with the non-medical ventures than they do with the existing medical device supply chain,” said an engineer at one company who asked not to be named.
So companies that make and supply medical equipment have not been approached.
But that's OK we have Dyson (make good hovers), Airbus (make good planes) Nissan and McLaren (both make good cars) not quite the same as producing ventilators.
EDIT I've just your last post so Ford are involved as well, so how many are packed and ready to go.
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From my second link.
"A consortium called Ventilator Challenge UK, involving companies including Airbus, Rolls-Royce and Ford, is separately providing the manufacturing muscle to scale up production of proven models already made by the specialist UK firms Smiths and Penlon."

Seems you're wrong in your assumptions
 
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nilagin said:
From my second link.
"A consortium called Ventilator Challenge UK, involving companies including Airbus, Rolls-Royce and Ford, is separately providing the manufacturing muscle to scale up production of proven models already made by the specialist UK firms Smiths and Penlon."

Seems you're wrong in your assumptions
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All from your first link
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&s...BBAL&usg=AOvVaw3FRye-ZLlsCVxyFbuJ5pUS&ampcf=1

So how many are ready to go now and how long before the 30,000 officials have indicated would be required in total.
 
More respirators is only part of the problem, you also need the staff to operate them. Not every nurse is an ICU nurse.

So just having more doesn't mean we can use more anyway.
 
Interesting approach from Sweden - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52076293

I know we are trying not to be party political at this moment but I am not convinced in Boris & co... in being best placed to get us through this. I cringe at the press conferences, like todays, where the cabinet minster is so wooden & scripted and spends half the time banging on about how they have "come up with a package in excess of anything else", it sounds more like a political broadcast.
 
Donnie said:
I havent seen any sources saying that. I've heard them say on the news they have 8000 critical care beds ready but not another 8000 ventilators on their way?
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nilagin said:
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&s...BBAL&usg=AOvVaw3FRye-ZLlsCVxyFbuJ5pUS&ampcf=1
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Retune said:
Timing will be the big issue. Peak demand could be as close as two weeks away by current predictions. How many ventilators will we have by then, from whatever source?
Click to expand...

Hmmmm interesting: - Edward Argar, junior health minister, said the NHS would start to see a “steady delivery” of 8,000 ventilators “over the coming week, two weeks, three weeks”.

Vague as a fart in the wind and about half as useful.
 
KitsuneAndy said:
More respirators is only part of the problem, you also need the staff to operate them. Not every nurse is an ICU nurse.

So just having more doesn't mean we can use more anyway.
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One of my links said the manufacturer will be providing training on the ventilators use to any nurses not familiar with its use.
 
Donnie said:
Hmmmm interesting: - Edward Argar, junior health minister, said the NHS would start to see a “steady delivery” of 8,000 ventilators “over the coming week, two weeks, three weeks”.

Vague as a fart in the wind and about half as useful.
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Not that vague, there will be a steady flow of delivery over the next few weeks until the 8k are delivered.
 
sphexx said:
Though most of the press reports say something Company X is beginning to make Y thousand ventilators but beginning to make doesn’t tell us how many they are producing per week. I must say, I have wondered why they say 10,000 rather than 100,000 if they are only beginning:).
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nilagin said:
We already have around 8k ventilators. Plus the 8k expected within the next couple of weeks, One UK manufacturer has tripled their production, Dyson expect to be in production within a couple of weeks, plus other companies also collaborating within the UK.
https://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&s...BhAC&usg=AOvVaw3dCB4Zu4hhIu3PJljJ8omH&ampcf=1
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We already have 8000 ventilators. Yes true but that 8000 needs to be put into context and thats difficult because it keeps getting quoted but here's a link to bed occupancy for NHS england https://www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2020/03/MSitRep-SPN-v2.1-Ja7T2.pdf showing occupancy of over 80% befoe covid 19. So, there's about 4100 adult critical care beds, about 320 paediatric intensive care beds and nearly 1500 neonatal critical care beds.

See the bits in bold? I'll come back to that.

Now, Im going to assume that is literally Englands figures, not all the UK, however, adding NI, Scotland and Wales adult critical care beds (where the priority is at the frontline) there's about another 1000 critical care beds.

So, about 5100 adult critical care beds equals 5100 ventilators right? Wrong!

Why? Because of the bold words highlighted. See how we're being told critical care beds and being led to believe that means every bed has a ventilator? It doesn't.
Critical care beds include high dependency beds and these do not have ventilators, only Intensive care beds do and they make up roughly 50% of the total.

So, bang! you're down to about 2500, lets add 500 tops for backups in the back of cupboards and the ventilators that should have been scrapped but for one reason or another arent, usually just no one has the balls to condemn them. 3000.

Where else can you walk into a hospital and lay hands on a ventilator? Theatres. Yep, thats why so many have had operations cancelled, even some cancer patients. SO, yes only hospitals with theatres have them so now you can likely add 1000 to 1500 ventilators and we are back at 4500 or so and most of those ventilators are the basic anaesthetic ventilators not built for long term ventilation use and these are some of the ventilators being adapted (somehow) for use by some UK companies including Smiths and Penlon.

Then of course there's the private sector beds we were told about for a short news cycle, I think I remember talk of ITU staff and equipment from private hospitals. that's amazing because there are extremely few, and i mean very very few private hospitals that have actual ITU facilities or staff. funny how such supposedly great news got such a short window and slipped away quietly. Bit like the 8000 ventilators, more like the 4500 above, if lucky.

KitsuneAndy said:
More respirators is only part of the problem, you also need the staff to operate them. Not every nurse is an ICU nurse.
So just having more doesn't mean we can use more anyway.
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Indeed this. The bottleneck is going to be both ventilators but more importantly staff, and that's where NHS doctors will be using criteria to decide who deserves a ventilator and who does not, so initially anyone over say 80 will be unlikely, definitly 80 and an underlying health condition, then it will be 70, maybe 60 as things get worse, maybe if you get on a ventilator and are confirmed covid but you're not responding to treatment as quick as someone thinks you should be say 3 days (which could be 2 or even 1) depending on how many in a particular hospital need a ventilator.

Perhaps an order of all nursing home residents are not to be admitted to a hospital for ventilators? who knows?

And yep, back to staffing I heard one report that you need 3 nurses per ventilator, another saying 5. I'd say the latter is an ideal staffing level that never gets met anyway and 3 is what the nhs basically runs on with current vacancy rates, poor recruitment and sickness, thats before the current pandemic.
 
KitsuneAndy said:
More respirators is only part of the problem, you also need the staff to operate them. Not every nurse is an ICU nurse.

So just having more doesn't mean we can use more anyway.
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nilagin said:
One of my links said the manufacturer will be providing training on the ventilators use to any nurses not familiar with its use.
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I think you missed the bit were he said "Not every nurse is an ICU nurse."
 
Weird in Tesco yesterday. I went out to get some milk and drinks, and anything else that caught my eye from what was there. I think I went out last on Thursday, but hadn't been out since. Then Tesco was quite empty, all they had then was tape near the checkouts. Yesterday I went to walk into the Tesco, and a person on the door said that I had to join the queue of people waiting outside, which I didn't expect or notice. :oops: :$ There was only one person waiting, but they had chequered tape on the ground at 2m intervals funnelled to two road works fences 2m from the front of the shop. We had to wait for people come out, and go in one by one. Inside there are four aisles and each was blocked so that you had to walk down the length of each aisle, and there were more tape on the floor at 2m intervals. There was part of one aisle blocked off as there were two people refilling fridges, and I had to ask one of the assistants to get me some milk.

The person on the checkout wasn't wearing gloves, more for their protection than mine, seeing as they are interacting with more people than I. :thinking: Odd seeing as the lengths they have gone to in the rest of the shop. I think if I was working in that position I would have wanted gloves. Maybe they don't have gloves of course.

The food shop next door just had a sign on the window advising people about the virus and to keep your distance from other people. And that is a shop of half the size with narrower aisles. After the Tesco experience, and having got what I went out for, I didn't go into the other shop, which I would normally do.

We are living in weird times. :oops: :$
 
nilagin said:
Not that vague, there will be a steady flow of delivery over the next few weeks until the 8k are delivered.
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But can you not see that your statement is as vague as the ones at your link? Is your “steady flow” one per week, 10 per week, 100 per week, 1000 per week and when is the start date precisely? How many is ”next few weeks”? Numbers and dates need to be specified — OK, they probably can’t be definite yet because of approvals etc etc but vague statements are not helpful.

Edit to add:
This is is the sort of report that is needed on the ventilators:
”Forty of the new devices have been delivered to ULCH and to three other London hospitals. If trials go well, up to 1,000 of the CPAP machines can be produced per day by Mercedes-AMG-HPP, beginning in a week's time.

The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) has already given its approval for their use.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52087002

Although “up to” is still a bit vague :(
 
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redhed17 said:
Weird in Tesco yesterday. I went out to get some milk and drinks, and anything else that caught my eye from what was there. I think I went out last on Thursday, but hadn't been out since. Then Tesco was quite empty, all they had then was tape near the checkouts. Yesterday I went to walk into the Tesco, and a person on the door said that I had to join the queue of people waiting outside, which I didn't expect or notice. :oops: :$ There was only one person waiting, but they had chequered tape on the ground at 2m intervals funnelled to two road works fences 2m from the front of the shop. We had to wait for people come out, and go in one by one. Inside there are four aisles and each was blocked so that you had to walk down the length of each aisle, and there were more tape on the floor at 2m intervals. There was part of one aisle blocked off as there were two people refilling fridges, and I had to ask one of the assistants to get me some milk.

The person on the checkout wasn't wearing gloves, more for their protection than mine, seeing as they are interacting with more people than I. :thinking: Odd seeing as the lengths they have gone to in the rest of the shop. I think if I was working in that position I would have wanted gloves. Maybe they don't have gloves of course.

The food shop next door just had a sign on the window advising people about the virus and to keep your distance from other people. And that is a shop of half the size with narrower aisles. After the Tesco experience, and having got what I went out for, I didn't go into the other shop, which I would normally do.

We are living in weird times. :oops: :$
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No issues at mine this morning, a one way system in and out, staff wiping trolleys and giving a squirt of hand sanitiser - they even had some pasta and the loo role aisle was chocca with loo roll!
 
Re my question on why some are really hit hard with this virus and others barely know they've got it, that very question was asked by Nicky Campbell ..Five Live, this morning to a doctor and the doctor said they didn't know but a research team in Australia are working on it.

They have a theory that the antibodies generated by previous 'flu viruses actually benefit this new coronavirus and they think that young children aren't succumbing to COVID-19 because they haven't got any 'flu antibodies or, at least, they've only suffered a couple of coronavirus strains whereas adults, especially the elderly have a lifetime of various antibody build up. He cited Dengue fever. An immunity builds up but it won't stop a new strain of it developing , it even makes it worse and we have a new strain of the Corono family.
 
JohnC6 said:
Re my question on why some are really hit hard with this virus and others barely know they've got it, that very question was asked by Nicky Campbell ..Five Live, this morning to a doctor and the doctor said they didn't know but a research team in Australia are working on it.

They have a theory that the antibodies generated by previous 'flu viruses actually benefit this new coronavirus and they think that young children aren't succumbing to COVID-19 because they haven't got any 'flu antibodies or, at least, they've only suffered a couple of coronavirus strains whereas adults, especially the elderly have a lifetime of various antibody build up. He cited Dengue fever. An immunity builds up but it won't stop a new strain of it developing , it even makes it worse and we have a new strain of the Corono family.
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So is the theory going down the line of those that have had more flu vaccines are more at risk? Those that have had actual flu multiple times are more at risk? Perhaps colds too?
 
JohnC6 said:
Re my question on why some are really hit hard with this virus and others barely know they've got it, that very question was asked by Nicky Campbell ..Five Live, this morning to a doctor and the doctor said they didn't know but a research team in Australia are working on it.

They have a theory that the antibodies generated by previous 'flu viruses actually benefit this new coronavirus and they think that young children aren't succumbing to COVID-19 because they haven't got any 'flu antibodies or, at least, they've only suffered a couple of coronavirus strains whereas adults, especially the elderly have a lifetime of various antibody build up. He cited Dengue fever. An immunity builds up but it won't stop a new strain of it developing , it even makes it worse and we have a new strain of the Corono family.
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I really hope this is not true as it will be twisted by the anti-vaxxers ;(.
 
MatBin said:
So is the theory going down the line of those that have had more flu vaccines are more at risk? Those that have had actual flu multiple times are more at risk? Perhaps colds too?
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Could point to part of the reason why the old and people with health issues are the ones being hardest hit with Corona, as they are the ones most likely to receive these jabs.
 
sphexx said:
I really hope this is not true as it will be twisted by the anti-vaxxers ;(.
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Logic says though that if you don't vaccinate for seasonal flu it will get you rather than Covid, so vaccination would still seem to be rather a good thing? Having said that I don't have the seasonal one.
 
Donnie said:
I think you missed the bit were he said "Not every nurse is an ICU nurse."
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They won't need to be an ICU nurse, they will just need to know how to operate the ventilators.
 
nilagin said:
They won't need to be an ICU nurse, they will just need to know how to operate the ventilators.
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I imagine, though I don't know for certain, that those on ventilators will be in ICU, and other specialist care will be required, not simply the ability to use a ventilator.
 
nilagin said:
They won't need to be an ICU nurse, they will just need to know how to operate the ventilators.
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If only it was that simple. It's not just a case of knowing how to use a ventilator. If a patient is bad enough to need a ventilator, then they need to be on an ICU or High Dependency ward and looked after by the appropriately trained staff.
 
sphexx said:
But can you not see that your statement is as vague as the ones at your link? Is your “steady flow” one per week, 10 per week, 100 per week, 1000 per week and when is the start date precisely? How many is ”next few weeks”? Numbers and dates need to be specified — OK, they probably can’t be definite yet because of approvals etc etc but vague statements are not helpful.
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These aren't the ventilators that the UK manufacturers will be making they are ventilators that the government has ordered from abroad, a few weeks is a low number, obvious by definition, if it is 8, we can expect an average of 1000 ventilators a week, if it is 4, we can expect an average of 2000 a week.
Chances are who ever is making them has some in stock ready to ship whilst the remainder will be made.
 
One of my friends is a senior ICU nurse at a local hospital, and she posted the other day saying it took "months" to train people to use ventilators properly. It's not surprising really, being that at that point you really are controlling the balance of life and death.
 
jakeblu said:
I imagine, though I don't know for certain, that those on ventilators will be in ICU, and other specialist care will be required, not simply the ability to use a ventilator.
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KitsuneAndy said:
If only it was that simple. It's not just a case of knowing how to use a ventilator. If a patient is bad enough to need a ventilator, then they need to be on an ICU or High Dependency ward and looked after by the appropriately trained staff.
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Whilst the designated ICU staff are doing the rest, you have a trained ventilator operator, lightening the load.
 
redhed17 said:
The person on the checkout wasn't wearing gloves, more for their protection than mine, seeing as they are interacting with more people than I. :thinking: Odd seeing as the lengths they have gone to in the rest of the shop. I think if I was working in that position I would have wanted gloves. Maybe they don't have gloves of course.
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Or maybe they are sensible enough to know that wearing gloves is useless unless you are going to change them after every single customer and wash your hands properly before donning new gloves?

MatBin said:
So is the theory going down the line of those that have had more flu vaccines are more at risk? Those that have had actual flu multiple times are more at risk? Perhaps colds too?
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sphexx said:
I really hope this is not true as it will be twisted by the anti-vaxxers ;(.
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I cannot see how as influenza and coronavirus's are completely different?
 
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