The virus. PPE. Part 1

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the black fox said:
Best to nuke Brighton first though just as a precaution .
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It seems the biggest risk of infection at the moment is from middle-aged Englishmen who like to go down the pub. We should round them all up, put them on the Isle of Wight, and station the HMS Queen Elizabeth in the Solent in case they get any ideas.

Dave70D said:
That`s after Wales gets it :D
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In view of the developing situation, the England v Wales 6 Nations match at Twickenham may now have to be played in an empty stadium. Not to avoid contagion, just to spare England the embarrassment.
 
LongLensPhotography said:
That's 20% death rate, much worse than even worst early prognosis
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1000 deaths out of 42,000 confirmed cases is not 20%

The confusing figure is the "recovered" numbers.......it is unclear whether that number is what level of cohort those who have "recovered" are in? Are they the ones who were most unwell and at risk of death, if so how does proportionate to the "Total Confirmed Cases"......as in how many of those will become lethally affected vs those who are simply unwell and will recover without the more serious symptoms???

Having said that the significant majority of the deaths have been in Hubei province!
 
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Box Brownie said:
1000 deaths out of 42,000 confirmed cases is not 20%

The confusing figure is the "recovered" numbers.......it is unclear whether that number is what level of cohort those who have "recovered" are in? Are they the ones who were most unwell and at risk of death, if so how does proportionate to the "Total Confirmed Cases"......as in how many of those will become lethally affected vs those who are simply unwell and will recover without the more serious symptoms???

Having said that the significant majority of the deaths have been in Hubei province!
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The number may be different outside of China and hopefully it will be... However the 2 numbers on the right are completed cases and the left one is by default supposed to resolve following the same horrible proportion, unless something dramatically changes, i.e treatment is introduced. I don't think we have a third group of completely asymptomatic recovery?
 
LongLensPhotography said:
The number may be different outside of China and hopefully it will be... However the 2 numbers on the right are completed cases and the left one is by default supposed to resolve following the same horrible proportion, unless something dramatically changes, i.e treatment is introduced. I don't think we have a third group of completely asymptomatic recovery?
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Wouldn't you expect China to play down and lower the infection number than exaggerate it?

If the actual infection rate is higher than 42k then the mortality rate will be lower than the current 2%, to get to 20%, the actual infection rate would only be like 4000 people.

I don't want to sound rude, but are you good at maths?
 
LongLensPhotography said:
The number may be different outside of China and hopefully it will be... However the 2 numbers on the right are completed cases and the left one is by default supposed to resolve following the same horrible proportion, unless something dramatically changes, i.e treatment is introduced. I don't think we have a third group of completely asymptomatic recovery?
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But where does your figure come from......20% of what total number ?
 
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The 20% comes from adding the total deaths and the total recovered then dividing that by the number of deaths (20.42%) but that figure means nothing as it ignores the 42,763 confirmed cases. If we assume that the 42763 includes both those that have died and those that have recovered we have death rate of 2.37% of course of those we don't know how many would have died regardless of the virus or not.

So basically the 20% death rate is a load of b**locks.
 
munch said:
The 20% comes from adding the total deaths and the total recovered then dividing that by the number of deaths (20.42%) but that figure means nothing as it ignores the 42,763 confirmed cases. If we assume that the 42763 includes both those that have died and those that have recovered we have death rate of 2.37% of course of those we don't know how many would have died regardless of the virus or not.

So basically the 20% death rate is a load of b**locks.
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Genuine question: these 42k cases are still "live" number; so how can you use it? They will either get well or die in the coming days, and the odds are 4:1 unless I'm mistaken.

Of course, there are reports of people being shot or beaten up to death when they resist going to camps or inside in which case they may be diagnosed but dead of different "causes". Is that number now over 30k?
 
LongLensPhotography said:
Genuine question: these 42k cases are still "live" number; so how can you use it? They will either get well or die in the coming days, and the odds are 4:1 unless I'm mistaken.

Of course, there are reports of people being shot or beaten up to death when they resist going to camps or inside in which case they may be diagnosed but dead of different "causes". Is that number now over 30k?
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Because you can't ignore the 42763 when looking at the death rate. You are basically saying you either die or recover, but are not referencing it to those who have the virus.

If you don't reference it to those that have the virus you don't actually have either a death rate or a recovery rate.
 
munch said:
If you don't reference it to those that have the virus you don't actually have either a death rate or a recovery rate.
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You also don't know how many have had it and recovered without it being reported
I had the worst sore throat I've had for years a few weeks ago and a cough, knocked me out for a couple of days
so did a few people I know, if this virus had been reported then I might have worried, as it was I just treated it as
a bad cold
 
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Dave70D said:
OH dear we seem to be getting surrounded here now. Just past the pub and up the road from us.

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/182...se-nurses-mill-view-hospital-held-quarantine/
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There is no running away from this, they need a vaccine and fast. It’s probably safer to go to Japan since they have a higher standard of basic hygiene than most societies. They don’t shake hands (bow), they dislike body contact, they wear masks for anything from pollen to pollution to regular flu to fashion or just don’t want to wear make up that day.
 
Gremlin said:
You also don't know how many have had it and recovered without it being reported
I had the worst sore throat I've had for years a few weeks ago and a cough, knocked me out for a couple of days
so di d a few people I know, if this virus had been reported then I might have worried, as it was I just treated it as
a bad cold
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I’ve had a cough since like early December. I would say I am at the tail end of it now, I might clear my throat twice a day but no coughing fits like back around Christmas time.

Had I done that now, being Chinese too...can you imagine the stigma?!
 
Raymond Lin said:
There is no running away from this, they need a vaccine and fast. It’s probably safer to go to Japan since they have a higher standard of basic hygiene than most societies. They don’t shake hands (bow), they dislike body contact, they wear masks for anything from pollen to pollution to regular flu to fashion or just don’t want to wear make up that day.
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Mask wont really help that much as no filter in them at all, I wonder how many folk in London have signs of it but wont see a doctor.
 
Raymond Lin said:
I’ve had a cough since like early December. I would say I am at the tail end of it now, I might clear my throat twice a day but no coughing fits like back around Christmas time.

Had I done that now, being Chinese too...can you imagine the stigma?!
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I stopped smoking last week, so I now have a cough from hell.
 
Dave70D said:
Mask wont really help that much as no filter in them at all, I wonder how many folk in London have signs of it but wont see a doctor.
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This is in general, not corona virus specific, it does great in hiding their face without make up and it does great stopping sneezing and coughing everywhere and it does some good in pollen and pollution.
 
Raymond Lin said:
This is in general, not corona virus specific, it does great in hiding their face without make up and it does great stopping sneezing and coughing everywhere and it does some good in pollen and pollution.
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So a mask might help just a little bit, but what about eyes.
 
Gremlin said:
You also don't know how many have had it and recovered without it being reported
I had the worst sore throat I've had for years a few weeks ago and a cough, knocked me out for a couple of days
so did a few people I know, if this virus had been reported then I might have worried, as it was I just treated it as
a bad cold
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True and this is where any statistics will fall down. There may also be people who have died of the virus, who have not been diagnosed. That still doesn't detract from the information we do have and how we use that. We can say based on the information we have corono virus has a current fatality rate of 2.37% NOT 20%
 
Dave70D said:
So a mask might help just a little bit, but what about eyes.
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for pollen and hiding your face without make up?

I know where you are going with this but I’d say you need to see to cross the road no matter how ugly they look without make up.
 
Raymond Lin said:
for pollen and hiding your face without make up?

I know where you are going with this but I’d say you need to see to cross the road no matter how ugly they look without make up.
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I`m not going anywhere with it, I was just wondering that`s all. Like last week I was on the bus hat on and my snood pulled up covering my my face with just my eyes showing, other folk on the bus were creeps as coughing but not putting a hand over their mouth so maybe cough drops getting in to the eyes.
 
Dave70D said:
I`m not going anywhere with it, I was just wondering that`s all. Like last week I was on the bus hat on and my snood pulled up covering my my face with just my eyes showing, other folk on the bus were creeps as coughing but not putting a hand over their mouth so maybe cough drops getting in to the eyes.
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I put it like that because that question is brought up every time when the question of masks is talked about.

It’s useless if it’s not N95.
Okay, I have N99.
It’s useless if you don’t change it often.
Okay, I have tons.
It’s useless because it can get through your eyes.


the fact is that nobody knows 100% how it is transmitted but they do know body fluid like sneeze or water droplets or surfaces when your hands touch it and rub your eye etc.

what it isn’t is that it isn’t not airborn and get blown across the Atlantic Ocean. This goggles requirement argument is a bit strange since you are assuming without goggles it makes every other precaution useless.

the way I see it is that every step lowers the risk a little, nothing is 100%, even a hazmat suit isn’t 100%, but does that mean you should forgo wearing masks or sanitise your hands just because “what about your eyes?”

Every step will help a little.

PS I bought a pair of goggles and yes it has rubber seal all the way round.
 
simon ess said:
When social media gives a wide and loud voice to fearful, ignorant, bigoted f***wits, this will happen sadly.
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It's happening on this forum, with some people saying it has a 20% death rate.
 
Dave70D said:
I know it might cost many millions/billions, but why not shut most airports down.
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The only way to truly stop it for a country is

1 - Close all ports of entry
2 - Quarantine everyone in the country to their homes for 2 weeks (although I saw a report saying it could be as long as 24 days)
3 - If no one in your home has symptoms after 2 weeks (or 3 weeks) then you are now out of quarantine.
4 - If someone has it in your house within the 2 weeks then that family will be taken to specilaised quarantine unit.

If you don't do that, and that people still move around then it is spreading from person to person. That is the only way you can truly get rid of it.

But then what do you do afterward? Now the country is "clean", do you put every person that gets through border control in a 14-day quarantine? That is a lot of people.
 
Dave70D said:
I know it might cost many millions/billions, but why not shut most airports down.
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Why do they need to?

So far 8 people in the UK have got the virus, whilst several thousands have flown into the UK in that time.
 
Raymond Lin said:
The only way to truly stop it for a country is

1 - Close all ports of entry
2 - Quarantine everyone in the country to their homes for 2 weeks (although I saw a report saying it could be as long as 24 days)
3 - If no one in your home has symptoms after 2 weeks (or 3 weeks) then you are now out of quarantine.
4 - If someone has it in your house within the 2 weeks then that family will be taken to specilaised quarantine unit.

If you don't do that, and that people still move around then it is spreading from person to person. That is the only way you can truly get rid of it.

But then what do you do afterward? Now the country is "clean", do you put every person that gets through border control in a 14-day quarantine? That is a lot of people.
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I don`t have an answer at all, thank god it is not airborn Yet.
 
munch said:
Why do they need to?

So far 8 people in the UK have got the virus, whilst several thousands have flown into the UK in that time.
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simon ess said:
Several hundreds of thousands.
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They should of done it last week or when the Chinese doctor found out before he died. I still think it will get a hell of a lot worse in the UK before it might get sorted but China need to find the host then the world can go from there.
 
I read yesterday that the daily rate of new infections in China peaked a few days ago and is declining. That would be great news, but the stats are Chinese so who knows.
 
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