The virus. PPE. Part 1

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I'm wondering how you got access to the advice teams of our CSO & CMO?
I'm guessing you didn't. For some reason I tend to trust their judgement over yours. As I'm sure our PM does.

You are becoming exhausting with your apparent narrow mindedness.
I have on the tip of my tongue a lengthy response to your latest comments but I feel it will be a waste of time and energy expressing it.
 
It’s not only us British that have been acting irresponsibly (I’m thinking of the videos coming out of Chavidorm).

Australian authorities closed Bondi beach and removed hundreds of people from other popular Sydney beaches on Saturday, citing the “irresponsible behaviour” of large crowds that had gathered in clear defiance of public health warnings.

Images of a packed Bondi on Friday – when temperatures in parts of Sydney exceeded 35C – were criticised internationally as governments in Australia announced stricter regulations to encourage social distancing and restrict the spread of the coronavirus.

An effective ban on outdoor public gatherings of more than 500 people has been in place for more than a week.

"Chavidorm" ........... what an appropriate name. Not because of the place, but because of the louts and virus spreaders that infest it.

I wonder how the figure of 500 was selected as the trigger point for prohibiting an outdoor gathering. 50 still seems risky and even 5 is not that good.
 
You are becoming exhausting with your apparent narrow mindedness.
I have on the tip of my tongue a lengthy response to your latest comments but I feel it will be a waste of time and energy expressing it.

Im surprised you find it narrow minded trusting the experts. I don't see your point. In fact I'm not sure you even have one.
 
Im surprised you find it narrow minded trusting the experts

Did I say that I find it narrow minded trusting the experts :thinking:.

I must have done if YOU say so!

I don't see your point.

That'll be due to your apparent lack of common sense i suspect?

It has been requested earlier in this thread to stop this type of b*ll*x between each other but you know what I'm reaching a point where I couldn't give a flying f*** anymore and that includes being banned from here.
After al,l it is evident that much as there are some extremely pleasant, mature , etc etc people on here ( especially in f&c)where i predominantly "reside") there is also a percentage of *******s too.
I don't have time nor the energies to waste with *******s
:wave:
 
Not much use just saying at risk because as you say everyone is at risk of catching it but there are degrees of risk for the outcome of catching it though which may be stated on your medical record if you log in and look. I had occasion to contact my GP today about some medication and I now see they have added a note about COVID to my record.

Yes but if you read my replies you'll see that my response was to Gremlins comment about isolating everyone at risk, which is clearly not possible.
 
Reporter to Trump " what do you say to the American citizens worried by CV?" , Trump " that a terrible question, next"
And now polls find majority (55% I think) Americans think Trump is doing a good job on the virus :(
 

That is a very sobering document. Not everyone will want to scrutinise every page.
For a basic summary read page 16.
It is not good news.
 
Did I say that I find it narrow minded trusting the experts :thinking:.

I must have done if YOU say so!



That'll be due to your apparent lack of common sense i suspect?

It has been requested earlier in this thread to stop this type of b*ll*x between each other but you know what I'm reaching a point where I couldn't give a flying f*** anymore and that includes being banned from here.
After al,l it is evident that much as there are some extremely pleasant, mature , etc etc people on here ( especially in f&c)where i predominantly "reside") there is also a percentage of *******s too.
I don't have time nor the energies to waste with *******s
:wave:

It would have been better to actually explain what point you were trying to make.
 
In regard to Italy and the numbers of deaths in regard to confirmed cases!

It struck me about 1-2 weeks ago that (statistically) it seemed like an "outlier" compared to all other nations affected, except China. Such an outlier can skew forecast calculations.

Now bearing in mind that Covid-19 has a very high mortality in the 80+ age group....I thought surely then, they must have more older folk on the population? So when I heard on the radio someone 'answer' that very question as in........Italy is second behind Japan in demographic terms as having the oldest population of any other nation.

Therefore, in regard to the UK what is our demographic spread when it comes to the 80+ age group???
 
While I've been able to get most of my weekly food shopping and my elderly mother and myself are feeling okay in ourselves especially as we are naturally indoors-only people for the most part, it does feel like being in the Starship Voyager with rationing, conserving ships energy, bartering for supplies, finding inventive solutions while fighting off strange viruses. But think we all need to be our own Captain Janeway at this moment in time.

Actually, there is a virus episode in that series, but with "macro viruses" that are 12 inches in size.
 
Excellent article on the virus:

'Why the Coronavirus Has Been So Successful

We’ve known about SARS-CoV-2 for only three months, but scientists can make some educated guesses about where it came from and why it’s behaving in such an extreme way.'

https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/03/biography-new-coronavirus/608338/

Thanks, a really useful article even if I do disagree with the title, so far this virus has been very "unsuccessful" given the rate it's killing its hosts.
 
In regard to Italy and the numbers of deaths in regard to confirmed cases!

It struck me about 1-2 weeks ago that (statistically) it seemed like an "outlier" compared to all other nations affected, except China. Such an outlier can skew forecast calculations.

Now bearing in mind that Covid-19 has a very high mortality in the 80+ age group....I thought surely then, they must have more older folk on the population? So when I heard on the radio someone 'answer' that very question as in........Italy is second behind Japan in demographic terms as having the oldest population of any other nation.

Therefore, in regard to the UK what is our demographic spread when it comes to the 80+ age group???
Good point, good question.
 
I really dont understand your attitude. All I've done us politely try and understand your point.

I have to wonder if you are able to understand my point.

I was under the impression that what I expressed was done so with words/ sentences that most folk would be able to understand.

I really don't wish to repeat myself as if explaining my views to a 7 year old child seeing as I am on a forum that hosts predominantly folk of adult age.

If you are struggling to understand my opions / pov, common sense attitude, then I'm afraid it will have to remain that way.
 
I have to wonder if you are able to understand my point.

I was under the impression that what I expressed was done so with words/ sentences that most folk would be able to understand.

I really don't wish to repeat myself as if explaining my views to a 7 year old child seeing as I am on a forum that hosts predominantly folk of adult age.

If you are struggling to understand my opions / pov, common sense attitude, then I'm afraid it will have to remain that way.
Yep as i suspected. No point.
 
And now polls find majority (55% I think) Americans think Trump is doing a good job on the virus :(

Yes, it's quite staggering.

I've been discussing the situation with a friend of mine in the USA. Despite Trump's swagger the situation in the USA is confused to say the least. It's not helped by a lack of resources, regular policy changes, the sheer bureaucracy of the system. Also complicating matters are differences between Federal and State regulation, a lack of coordination between different States and between States and the Federal government and municipal government.

Something that my friend mentioned, that I don't think has been reported over here, is that in some locations, during the early stages of the outbreak, that test samples for COVID-19 were taking so long to be processed, that when they were finally ready to be tested, they had degraded to the point were they were useless and couldn't be tested. Hopefully as testing is scaled up, that problem no longer exists.

Currently, the areas that are worse affected by COVID-19 tend to be Democrat controlled. I suspect Trumps ratings will stay high until there are significant deaths in rust belt areas.
 
In regard to Italy and the numbers of deaths in regard to confirmed cases!

It struck me about 1-2 weeks ago that (statistically) it seemed like an "outlier" compared to all other nations affected, except China. Such an outlier can skew forecast calculations.

Now bearing in mind that Covid-19 has a very high mortality in the 80+ age group....I thought surely then, they must have more older folk on the population? So when I heard on the radio someone 'answer' that very question as in........Italy is second behind Japan in demographic terms as having the oldest population of any other nation.

Therefore, in regard to the UK what is our demographic spread when it comes to the 80+ age group???

The age factor is undoubtedly relevant, but it is not the only one. You mention Japan as being the country with the oldest population. That is indeed the case.

Italy : 51 days since Covid 19 started - fatality rate 8.57%

Japan : 55 days since Covid 19 started - fatality rate 3.48%


Looks like the outlook for the UK is nearer that of Italy than Japan (n)
 
Ok, time for people to calm down. Someone has just earned themselves a day off.

Things are getting very stressful out there at the moment and it's obviously going to have an impact on what people post in here. All we can ask is for a little restraint and maybe pause for a second or two before hitting that reply button.

Stay safe folks. :)
 
Thanks, a really useful article even if I do disagree with the title, so far this virus has been very "unsuccessful" given the rate it's killing its hosts.
Judged by replication, the only thing the virus 'cares' about, I suppose the endemic common cold coronas are some of the most successful of all human pathogens - everyone gets them, usually with mild disease, and immunity isn't lifelong so re-infection is possible (which may or may not be a problem with SARS-CoV-2).
 
In regard to Italy and the numbers of deaths in regard to confirmed cases!

It struck me about 1-2 weeks ago that (statistically) it seemed like an "outlier" compared to all other nations affected, except China. Such an outlier can skew forecast calculations.

Now bearing in mind that Covid-19 has a very high mortality in the 80+ age group....I thought surely then, they must have more older folk on the population? So when I heard on the radio someone 'answer' that very question as in........Italy is second behind Japan in demographic terms as having the oldest population of any other nation.

Therefore, in regard to the UK what is our demographic spread when it comes to the 80+ age group???

It's interesting because I was speaking with a mortgage advisor two days ago and she was from Northern Italy and her parents are still there. She said that there is a large aging population there but also that the majority of them (in her opinion of course) frequent church with a lot of close contact greetings.

She suspects it a combination, but in particular the latter, which has caused such a problem there with the virus.

Perhaps the difference in how people greet among perhaps other social differences would explain the difference between Italy and Japan?
 
Judged by replication, the only thing the virus 'cares' about, I suppose the endemic common cold coronas are some of the most successful of all human pathogens - everyone gets them, usually with mild disease, and immunity isn't lifelong so re-infection is possible (which may or may not be a problem with SARS-CoV-2).

After writing my reply, I realised that success could also be measured in the speed of moving to a new host, which this virus seems particularly good at. And yes, the common cold would seem a good example of a successful virus.
 
That is a very sobering document. Not everyone will want to scrutinise every page.
For a basic summary read page 16.
It is not good news.
This is the reality of BJ's claim of 'turning the tide' in 12 weeks. Yes, with sufficient measures in place we ought to be able to suppress the number of new cases and deaths in that sort of timescale, but we're then in a cleft stick because, as the model shows, another outbreak is expected soon after restrictions are lifted. The modellers advising the government actually think that we'd need restrictions of some kind for most of the (at least) 18 months most estimates suggest we'll have to wait before a vaccine is produced, tested and available in quantity (though restrictions might be lifted periodically or in certain areas depending on how things progress). Social distancing would have to be in place for 'at least 2/3' of the time (say a year). The alternative 'mitigation' strategy would only need 3 months of restrictions during the peak of the epidemic, but there'd be so many cases the NHS would be overwhelmed and a quarter of a million deaths would be predicted (about half of those we'd see if we did nothing at all).

Here's a thread I linked to above from a prominent US epidemiologist who considers this report and suggests combining suppression with other strategies, taking on board multiple interventions that seem to be working elsewhere, in a national (or international) effort that would be an 'Apollo program of our times':

View: https://BANNED/trvrb/status/1240444821593944064
 
After writing my reply, I realised that success could also be measured in the speed of moving to a new host, which this virus seems particularly good at. And yes, the common cold would seem a good example of a successful virus.
Yes, by this criterion 'classic' SARS-CoV (though more commonly lethal if you caught it) was a failure, and was eradicated quickly. MERS-CoV, the most deadly of all, fortunately doesn't transmit that efficiently between humans, but is still out there due to multiple zoonotic events (we keep catching it from camels) - a successful dromedary virus, but a less successful human virus.
 
While I've been able to get most of my weekly food shopping and my elderly mother and myself are feeling okay in ourselves especially as we are naturally indoors-only people for the most part, it does feel like being in the Starship Voyager with rationing, conserving ships energy, bartering for supplies, finding inventive solutions while fighting off strange viruses. But think we all need to be our own Captain Janeway at this moment in time.

Actually, there is a virus episode in that series, but with "macro viruses" that are 12 inches in size.
A shame we don't have an Emergency Medical Hologram Doctor to sort this all out by the end of the episode. I think a macro virus would be a bit easier to avoid when queueing up for toilet rolls, though. Couldn't you hit it with a stick or something?
 
A French Air Force Airbus A330 has started flying patients from the eastern side of the country (where hospitals are at saturation point) to the south west where they've still got capacity to spare.
 
The age factor is undoubtedly relevant, but it is not the only one. You mention Japan as being the country with the oldest population. That is indeed the case.

Italy : 51 days since Covid 19 started - fatality rate 8.57%

Japan : 55 days since Covid 19 started - fatality rate 3.48%

Looks like the outlook for the UK is nearer that of Italy than Japan (n)

Yes, other factors in what undoubtedly is a "multi-factorial" situation..................one of which is that in Italy most infections are/were and with the high(est) mortality were in Lombardia ~ does that stem from a much higher proportion of >80yo in that region???

But what makes you say the UK are "nearer that of Italy....." as in we will see that level of infection and mortality???

It's interesting because I was speaking with a mortgage advisor two days ago and she was from Northern Italy and her parents are still there. She said that there is a large aging population there but also that the majority of them (in her opinion of course) frequent church with a lot of close contact greetings.

She suspects it a combination, but in particular the latter, which has caused such a problem there with the virus.

Perhaps the difference in how people greet among perhaps other social differences would explain the difference between Italy and Japan?

A very good point, as in cultural/behavioural differences in regard to greeting & departure practices could be a key factor as well as in the case of Italy much more emphasis on three-generational families in close proximity compared to the UK, for example. The proximity can be such that they actually all live in the same household!

Maybe we are the virus and COVID-19 is earth's immune system. :D

Ah! the Gaia theory perhaps???
 
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It's interesting because I was speaking with a mortgage advisor two days ago and she was from Northern Italy and her parents are still there. She said that there is a large aging population there but also that the majority of them (in her opinion of course) frequent church with a lot of close contact greetings.

She suspects it a combination, but in particular the latter, which has caused such a problem there with the virus.

Perhaps the difference in how people greet among perhaps other social differences would explain the difference between Italy and Japan?
You have possibly hit the nail on the head there ,and it does sound logical ,we have italian neighbours and they are very very family conscious far more than we are
 
The age factor is undoubtedly relevant, but it is not the only one. You mention Japan as being the country with the oldest population. That is indeed the case.

Italy : 51 days since Covid 19 started - fatality rate 8.57%

Japan : 55 days since Covid 19 started - fatality rate 3.48%

Looks like the outlook for the UK is nearer that of Italy than Japan (n)
The French are reporting that the mortality rate is 50% higher for men and that's a far bigger difference than they would expect from a respiratory illness.
 
Yes, with sufficient measures in place we ought to be able to suppress the number of new cases and deaths in that sort of timescale, but we're then in a cleft stick because, as the model shows, another outbreak is expected soon after restrictions are lifted.

I've been saying this for a longtime, we may suppress by shutting everything down but as soon as restrictions are lifted it
"will come back, that I would say is a foregone conclusion.
Sits back and awaits the flak ":)
 
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