The virus. PPE. Part 1

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cambsno said:
I know it seems like I am jumping on a bandwagon and it was not this global pandemic then, but in Dec I had exactly the same - short of breath, fever, cough that lasted 3 weeks. Bang on Corona symptoms!
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The virus expert (and I mean expert, not Karen off facebook) on the radio tonight summed it up nicely "If it was Covid-19, where were all the deaths"

There are always a lot of coughs and colds in December and January, around 25% of them are caused by Corona viruses, just not Covid-19
 
Nod said:
That's pretty much my take on the situation too.
TBH, in some ways I want it as soon as possible to get it over with but the flip side is that the longer it is before I get it, the better the chances of an effective treatment being known/available are.
NOT going to be licking door handles...
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... or if you are very unlucky hospitals will be over capacity and medics falling like leaves at that particular point in time. In many ways we are all playing the COVID roulette.
 
Retune said:
Here it is:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/oxmu2rwsnhi9j9c/Draft-COVID-19-Model (13).pdf?dl=0

Other epidemiologists are sceptical:

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-infections-oxford-study-immunity

'“It’s a little concerning that they’ve taken it straight to the media,” says Tim Colbourn, an epidemiologist at University College London’s Institute for Global Health. “It has not been properly sense-checked against any data.” The authors of the Oxford study did not respond to WIRED's request for comment in time for publication. The study, led by Sunetra Gupta and José Lourenço at the University of Oxford’s Department of Zoology, puts forward several hypothetical scenarios about the spread of coronavirus in the UK. In the most extreme scenario they estimate that if the virus had started being transmitted 38 days before the first confirmed death then 68 per cent of the UK population would have been infected by March 19. But this modelling rests on an improbable assumption: that just one in every 1,000 people infected with coronavirus will need to be hospitalised. This assumption just doesn’t match real-world data, says Colbourn. “We can already see just by looking at Italy [...] that that figure has already been exceeded,” he says. In Lombardy – despite the region being under lockdown since March 9 – more than one in every 1,000 of the entire population have already been hospitalised due to coronavirus. According to the most recent data, the death rate is currently around 0.42 per 1,000 people. “The fact that they didn't look at that data is extremely concerning given the headlines it's now generating,” Colbourn says. His concerns are echoed by seven public health academics who released statements to the Science Media Centre. “This theoretical simulation rests on a key assumption which may be or may not be correct,” said James Naismith, director of the Rosalind Franklin Institute, in his statement to the SMC.
...
But public health experts are concerned that the headlines generated by the Oxford study will lull us into a false sense of security. “It said something that fits with what everyone wants to hear, which is ‘we don't need to have lockdown because everyone already has it’”, says Devi Sridhar, professor of global public health at the University of Edinburgh. “As much as I really want to believe that all the evidence we're seeing from other places says it's not [the case].” '
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Thanks for that, they are running it on SkyNewsTV as I write. Interesting but a bit premature I think and likely (calculated?) to lead to complacency.
 
HelenC said:
Lol.. I have to say I did wonder why Camilla didn't have it if it is as contagious as they say... do they never get closer than 2 metres :naughty::naughty:
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Not much social distancing going on when this took place:-

First published by the People on January 17, 1993 under the headline “Charles and Camilla - the tape”, the recordings and transcriptions were shocking for the British public.

Part of the transcript reads:

  • Prince Charles: “Oh, God. I’ll just live inside your trousers or something. It would be much easier!”
  • Camilla (laughing): “What are you going to turn into, a pair of knickers? (Both laugh). Oh, you’re going to come back as a pair of knickers.”
  • Prince Charles: “Or, God forbid, a Tampax. Just my luck! (Laughs)”
  • Camilla: “You are a complete idiot! (Laughs) Oh, what a wonderful idea.
  • Prince Charles: “My luck to be chucked down a lavatory and go on and on forever swirling round on the top, never going down.”
Enough of this, let's get back to the main subject - Covid 19.
 
sphexx said:
Thanks for that, they are running it on SkyNewsTV as I write. Interesting but a bit premature I think and likely (calculated?) to lead to complacency.
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Disappointing - the media have generally been sensible about this.

As is normal, a lot of people were quite seriously ill with viral infections between November and February. A Spanish work colleague was hospitalised with pneumonia (bacterial, given IV antibiotics) and several others I know had significant time off work, but it wasn't *this* coronavirus. We know this because of the testing that has been done, tracing the spread of the virus in populations that all point back to Wuhan as the point of origin. That and the lack of bodies, as pointed out.
 
arclight said:
First published by the People on January 17, 1993 under the headline “Charles and Camilla - the tape”, the recordings and transcriptions were shocking for the British public.
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Not at all sure about the public being shocked, but otherwise it was a quote that got recycled many times. At least he was actually genuinely interested in his long-term paramour.
 
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mex said:
OMG......

https://news.yahoo.com/fox-news-brit-hume-entirely-131616086.html
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Yes, I saw 2(?) days ago. He’s probably sequestered on his ranch out in the wide spaces of Texas :(! but the man is an idiot.
On the other hand I heard part of NY Gov Cuomo speech and he ended saying “now this is just my opinion on why this State has the highest number ... “ and I Sainsbury’s “Oh no another cod virologist ...” but in fact it seemed pretty good saying (paraphrasing) “it comes from our diversity .... but that diversity is also our strength ... “.
 
LongLensPhotography said:
... or if you are very unlucky hospitals will be over capacity and medics falling like leaves at that particular point in time. In many ways we are all playing the COVID roulette.
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Indeed but life is a gamble anyway. While I have no desire to die, being dead doesn't scare me at all. The last bit of life can be pretty unpleasant but so can bits in the middle.
 
cambsno said:
I know it seems like I am jumping on a bandwagon and it was not this global pandemic then, but in Dec I had exactly the same - short of breath, fever, cough that lasted 3 weeks. Bang on Corona symptoms!
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Because the symptoms are the same / similar doesn't mean you had covid 19.

the black fox said:
me and the wife both had it over xmas in fact xmas day I woke up at 4a.m and couldn't catch a breath at all had to take some of my GTN heart spray to open the airways up . the wife also had it ,we went to the doctors after chrimbo and she said I was nearly over it and put the wife on A/B but it still took us to February to feel o.k again . worse cough /flu I have ever experienced and I have had the jab to ..
who knows was it around earlier than expected or something totally different until these new tests come out we will never know .
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You do know GTN spray doesn't act on lung tissue? And antibiotics don't work on a virus whatsover, may as well take tic tacs for a virus.

sirch said:
The virus expert (and I mean expert, not Karen off facebook) on the radio tonight summed it up nicely "If it was Covid-19, where were all the deaths"

There are always a lot of coughs and colds in December and January, around 25% of them are caused by Corona viruses, just not Covid-19
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This!
 
JohnC6 said:
Unfortunately, we’ll never know on an individual basis. Only a test for antibodies ..is that the right term ? ..will give a definitive answer . As Simon points out it’s the time line that gives rise to reasonable suspicion.maybe even strong suspicion. I think they’re testing on people that they know have had it and have recovered.
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Yes, tests for antibodies to the virus. You might soon get your chance, though there seem to be conflicting messages about availability (and the tests need to be tested):
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...home-testing-to-be-made-available-within-days
 
ancient_mariner said:
Disappointing - the media have generally been sensible about this.

As is normal, a lot of people were quite seriously ill with viral infections between November and February. A Spanish work colleague was hospitalised with pneumonia (bacterial, given IV antibiotics) and several others I know had significant time off work, but it wasn't *this* coronavirus. We know this because of the testing that has been done, tracing the spread of the virus in populations that all point back to Wuhan as the point of origin. That and the lack of bodies, as pointed out.
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Yes and someone earlier mentioned a cough that seemed to go on for ages but that seems quite common — it’s either more common nowadays on more common in my age group. The latter seems likely :(.
 
the black fox said:
me and the wife both had it over xmas in fact xmas day I woke up at 4a.m and couldn't catch a breath at all had to take some of my GTN heart spray to open the airways up . the wife also had it ,we went to the doctors after chrimbo and she said I was nearly over it and put the wife on A/B but it still took us to February to feel o.k again . worse cough /flu I have ever experienced and I have had the jab to ..
who knows was it around earlier than expected or something totally different until these new tests come out we will never know .
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there were only a handful of cases in Wuhan at that point. You didn’t have Coronavirus, it was the flu.
 
mex said:
Unbelievably, there is a new internet 'craze' for youngsters doing the rounds called 'Coronavirus challenge' the dopey tw@ts have to lick door handles and the buzz being they are playing Russian roullette....quite litteraly!!
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Not really Russian Roulette, seeing as the risk of death for a fit youngster must be 0.1% max!
 
arclight said:
Not much social distancing going on when this took place:-

First published by the People on January 17, 1993 under the headline “Charles and Camilla - the tape”, the recordings and transcriptions were shocking for the British public.

Part of the transcript reads:

  • Prince Charles: “Oh, God. I’ll just live inside your trousers or something. It would be much easier!”
  • Camilla (laughing): “What are you going to turn into, a pair of knickers? (Both laugh). Oh, you’re going to come back as a pair of knickers.”
  • Prince Charles: “Or, God forbid, a Tampax. Just my luck! (Laughs)”
  • Camilla: “You are a complete idiot! (Laughs) Oh, what a wonderful idea.
  • Prince Charles: “My luck to be chucked down a lavatory and go on and on forever swirling round on the top, never going down.”
Enough of this, let's get back to the main subject - Covid 19.
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I’ve never been a Royalist (Parliamentarian, me, not Republican) but I’ve never understood why people knock him for that, better hope none your private jokey conversations aren’t published. The disgrace was the phone tappers and press :mad:. That, and more, changed my view of the worth of a ’free’ press, actually mostly propaganda machines of wealthy b*stards :mad:.
 
sirch said:
The virus expert (and I mean expert, not Karen off facebook) on the radio tonight summed it up nicely "If it was Covid-19, where were all the deaths"

There are always a lot of coughs and colds in December and January, around 25% of them are caused by Corona viruses, just not Covid-19
Click to expand...

Probably true, although they wouldn't have been looking for it. The deaths could have been there... 70 something dies who had health issues, got a cold and finished them off!
 
cambsno said:
Not really Russian Roulette, seeing as the risk of death for a fit youngster must be 0.1% max!
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I would guess there are lot more things you can pick up licking knobs doorknobs :).
 
mex said:
OMG......

https://news.yahoo.com/fox-news-brit-hume-entirely-131616086.html
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Not to defend that viewpoint but I bet all governments have been working out what an 'acceptable' number of deaths is and how 'disposable' some people are. With the economy slowing down and companies not being efficient, what are the costs we face? For example, if this lasts a year and affects say cancer patients, we could 'save' 10k from Corona but risk losing 20k from lack of care/treatment/drug creation etc... not to mention cost of mental illness caused by the effects as well as countless other knock on, like social care, routine ops that while not urgent now, could cause future implications.
 
cambsno said:
Not really Russian Roulette, seeing as the risk of death for a fit youngster must be 0.1% max!
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yeah, of course it is but.....

a) you just plucked a figure out of the air
and
b) you've completely forgotton the fact that if THEY have covid 19 then everyone else is now at risk of catching it!

You are Karen off facebook and I claim my 5 pounds!
 
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cambsno said:
Probably true, although they wouldn't have been looking for it. The deaths could have been there... 70 something dies who had health issues, got a cold and finished them off!
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That would be true for Africa, probably India and maybe Russia, but not western societies.
 
cambsno said:
Not to defend that viewpoint but I bet all governments have been working out what an 'acceptable' number of deaths is and how 'disposable' some people are. With the economy slowing down and companies not being efficient, what are the costs we face? For example, if this lasts a year and affects say cancer patients, we could 'save' 10k from Corona but risk losing 20k from lack of care/treatment/drug creation etc... not to mention cost of mental illness caused by the effects as well as countless other knock on, like social care, routine ops that while not urgent now, could cause future implications.
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and we would still as a country spend billions on weaponry......
 
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mex said:
and we would still as a country spend billions on weaponry......
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Comments like this are valid but maybe more validly aimed at countries who spend on weaponry (and use them a lot more than the UK does) and even space programs whilst section of their society don't have access to education, food or clean water never mind ventilators and paracetamol.
 
woof woof said:
more validly aimed at countries who spend on weaponry (and use them a lot more than the UK does) and even space programs whilst section of their society don't have access to education, food or clean water.
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That's irrelevant to our spend though, just a diversion.
 
cambsno said:
Probably true, although they wouldn't have been looking for it. The deaths could have been there... 70 something dies who had health issues, got a cold and finished them off!
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The death rate is very accurately recorded, even a slight increase in seasonal "flu" deaths would have been picked up. The world really doesn't need a load of people thinking they are immune to Covid 19 because they had the sniffles in January, please stop.
 
cambsno said:
Not to defend that viewpoint but I bet all governments have been working out what an 'acceptable' number of deaths is and how 'disposable' some people are.
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A few weeks ago, when press reports suggested the government were working with a 'central assumption' that 100k would die, they (or at least Dominic Cummings) seemed prepared to go through with a 'mitigation' strategy without lockdowns (it is claimed and denied that ''if that means some pensioners die, too bad' summarises the view expressed by Cummings at the time). It was only when the model was revised and the projected figure rose to 250k, overwhelming the NHS, that they switched to the 'suppression' strategy now in place.
 
Ricardodaforce said:
738 deaths in Spain in the past 24 hours. Horrific number.
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The outbreak in France has been running 8 days longer than in Spain. In another 8 days Spain's casualties will be very much worse compared to France today.
Other disturbing trend is that the recovery rate in Spain is 7.24% whilst France is 15.65%. Catastrophic situation - this virus has caught the world sleeping (or far too absorbed with the wrong things).
 
sirch said:
The death rate is very accurately recorded, even a slight increase in seasonal "flu" deaths would have been picked up. The world really doesn't need a load of people thinking they are immune to Covid 19 because they had the sniffles in January, please stop.
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I suspect a lot of people who have had minor ailments in the last few months are going to be disappointed at the results when the home antibody tests are distributed.
 
A quick question......

Does anybody know if the letters sent to the 1.5 million vulnerable persons were eventually sent ? If so, does anybody know someone who's received theirs?

Cheers
 
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I know someone with a condition on the list who hasn't received anything (except the generic text message we all got) so far.
 
I got a text today from the gov.

I'm not in a recognised at risk group and I'm on payg.

So I was a bit surprised, but good on 'em.
 
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