On September 27/28 we had storm Agnes and it experienced explosive cyclogenesis..commonly called a 'weather bomb' that is, the pressure drops more than 24mb in 24 hours. I watched a detailed forecast earlier and tomorrow's storm Cirián is to undergo the same process as it crosses the fast Jet Stream from the SW but is much more intense and much nearer to SW England which has made forecasting the track more difficult. The Jet Stream usually travels between 80-140mph. Agnes became mature in mid-Atlantic so the track was much easier to forecast. For anyone interested, the Jet Stream is travelling at 200mph across the Atlantic and into the Bay of Biscay and was boosted by the differential in temperature between the southern US states, experiencing above average temperatures and the northern states much cooler .It follows the boundaries between hot and cold air and in winter when there can be very large differentials in temperature it can reach 275mph. The Met Office has been supplying Jet Stream data, as normal, to airlines travelling from the US so they can utilise it and, at present, flight times have been reduced by an hour due to the 'tail wind'.
Some models have the centre of Cirián just south of Gloucester and some near the south coast. This matters with regard to where the strongest winds will hit. The strongest winds/gusts are on the south of a storm. .As the Channel Islands have cancelled flights and ferries for tomorrow it could be that Cirián is, infact slightly more south, with wind gusts forecast to be 105mph hitting the Channel Islands and 95mph in Brittany and along France's Channel coast. As far as I know, they still don't know how far north (I mean distance from the south coast) it will hit . So, it seems, that this storm is dangerous. It's forecast to have the lowest-ever November storm pressure estimated to get into the low 950mbs. The record low is 959mb March 27/28th 1916 .The Great Storm.
https://whenthewelshcametobedford.wordpress.com/2016/02/27/the-great-storm-of-1916/
My barometer is currently showing 1010 mb. I've brought in any loose items from outside.. the small recycle bins, watering can, lightweight plant pots etc.