The virus. PPE. Part 1

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Donnie said:
Ummmmm seriously? Im too close to caring for my patients that what? Im ignoring all the training and medical advice on how to care for them and help stop the spread? :rolleyes::rolleyes:
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Not at all, no-one is doubting your caring or your sincerity or belief in what you are doing is correct. How many times though have people done things in the past believing in what they are doing with the utmost belief in what they were doing was correct to later be shown a better way. As an example, my father was one of the first to have his Aorta replaced as it was "furred up", now the bypass method is used with generally a much better outcome for the patient. I dont doubt for one moment that his operation was done with the best possible intention, sadly he died, today a bypass operation is almost common place and not the death sentence it once was.
 
nilagin said:
Going by how much room there is in the foreground, chances are the rest of the beach is the same. It just looks packed but a plan view could provide an entirely different impression.
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More dodgy reasoning from you, If you look at the background it would seem that like many beaches there will be bottlenecks where people access the beach. No doubt you will say they may have arrived from the sea :( or rather you feel they may have :(.
 
nilagin said:
just because I don't work in a medical field doesn't mean I
can't apply simple and obvious logic to different situations.
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Sadly my attempt at applying logic failed too in the eyes of some.

Difficult as it is ( be assured I know!), maybe best to accept that some people are happy to remain open minded and take on board and evaluate others opions, whereas ,others will simply remain stubborn and no matter what you say or how you explain yourself is going to make them think outside of their own "bubble".

If it's any consoloation, I actually agree with many of the points that you have made;)
 
MatBin said:
Not at all, no-one is doubting your caring or your sincerity or belief in what you are doing is correct. How many times though have people done things in the past believing in what they are doing with the utmost belief in what they were doing was correct to later be shown a better way. As an example, my father was one of the first to have his Aorta replaced as it was "furred up", now the bypass method is used with generally a much better outcome for the patient. I dont doubt for one moment that his operation was done with the best possible intention, sadly he died, today a bypass operation is almost common place and not the death sentence it once was.
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Ok, but you're comparing there a new treatment at the time to long established and continually updated and evidence based infection control practices within a pandemic situation. Yes the latter (pandemic situation) is an unknown and new situation so that kind of fits your analogy, but it falls down on the former (the infection control practice)
 
Asha said:
Sadly my attempt at applying logic failed too in the eyes of some.

Difficult as it is ( be assured I know!), maybe best to accept that some people are happy to remain open minded and take on board and evaluate others opions, whereas ,others will simply remain stubborn and no matter what you say or how you explain yourself is going to make them think outside of their own "bubble".

If it's any consoloation, I actually agree with many of the points that you have made;)
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Im shocked :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
 
nilagin said:
Show me how it is wrong then. Simplest way of preventing further infection spreading is to fully contain it, that means nobody leaves or enters until it is gone. Models and simulations are just b******t, because they don't a count for everything. Just one slip up, no matter how tiny the risk is all it takes to undo it.
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You are a wonderful example of the Dunning–Kruger effect:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect :(.
There is no point in discussing anything with you because you are grounded in you illusory authority. You make wild statements ungrounded in any evidence.
 
Asha said:
Sadly my attempt at applying logic failed too in the eyes of some.

Difficult as it is ( be assured I know!), maybe best to accept that some people are happy to remain open minded and take on board and evaluate others opions, whereas ,others will simply remain stubborn and no matter what you say or how you explain yourself is going to make them think outside of their own "bubble".

If it's any consoloation, I actually agree with many of the points that you have made;)
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So guy who works in a medical setting, who's skills are regularly updated with the latest science based procedures should take advice from a guy who works at Ford?
 
Seeing the post of scenes from Victoria Park and Columbia Road Market I wonder if some people want the Government to impose stricter measures, or are they

(a) just thick, or
(b) don't care because if you are less than 70 and without any underlying health conditions coronavirus is not likely to affect you badly, so they think - sod everyone else I want to do want I want to do.

Just seen this on the BBC site - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51994504 !

Dave
 
Donnie said:
Ok, but you're comparing there a new treatment at the time to long established and continually updated and evidence based infection control practices within a pandemic situation. Yes the latter (pandemic situation) is an unknown and new situation so that kind of fits your analogy, but it falls down on the former (the infection control practice)
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Your answer only goes to show that you are not willing to look at other solutions and although I believe you think you are correct and others incorrect very little advance is made incrementally, sometimes a big improvement needs a big vision. We will have to agree to disagree, you have your view, which I respect but alas it doesnt align with mine and those of some others. Hopefully your view is correct if shared by the majority of health care professionals and I for one will be happy to be proven wrong (again).
 
MatBin said:
Your answer only goes to show that you are not willing to look at other solutions and although I believe you think you are correct and others incorrect very little advance is made incrementally, sometimes a big improvement needs a big vision. We will have to agree to disagree, you have your view, which I respect but alas it doesnt align with mine and those of some others. Hopefully your view is correct if shared by the majority of health care professionals and I for one will be happy to be proven wrong (again).
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Another Dunning–Kruger :(.
 
Tringa said:
Seeing the post of scenes from Victoria Park and Columbia Road Market I wonder if some people want the Government to impose stricter measures, or are they

(a) just thick, or
(b) don't care because if you are less than 70 and without any underlying health conditions coronavirus is not likely to affect you badly, so they think - sod everyone else I want to do want I want to do.

Just seen this on the BBC site - https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-51994504 !

Dave
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Actually, I don’t think it’s a one or the other option.

I think BOTH (a) and (b) are plausible.
 
jakeblu said:
So guy who works in a medical setting, who's skills are regularly updated with the latest science based procedures should take advice from a guy who works at Ford?
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I'm not aware that I specified which points I agreed with.!
 
Uncle Fester said:
Actually, I don’t think it’s a one or the other option.

I think BOTH (a) and (b) are plausible.
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I don’t think they are necessarily thick in the usual sense. We’ve had the living example of Donald Trump before us for some years (and some in this thread) who have their own world view grounded in ignorance and think really hard and come up with their own conclusions :(.
 
Very disappointed at the crowds today. Stay home, or in a genuine place you can be alone. Please disseminate this to anyone you know who's not doing it. Isolate.

I'm not saying this as some sort of concerned do-gooder. I'm one of the Consultant anaesthetists who will be deciding on which of you get a ventilator should services become overwhelmed. Can I stress that enough?

I'm among old acquaintances here on TP. I'm asking TP for assistance. Please, this information needs to be disseminated in every way possible.

Dr Daniel Broad MB.ChB FRCA (UK)
 
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I'm not long back in from being at work (an acute hospital) assisting in converting outpatient areas into new ward space - the preparations are underway, but make no mistake this is an emergency situation, not a nice sunny day to go to the beach with 500 other people. We're planning on the basis of there being approximately twice as many people requiring hospitalisation as we have beds in the hospital (that's total beds in the hospital, not beds available - which are very different numbers)

On the way home, I passed a scooter ride - about 50 people parked up in a small town square, all chatting to each other definitely not observing the 2m distance. It's like they are wilfully trying to spread the virus as efficiently as possible.

When their parents & grandparents are needing a hospital bed and there are none they'll need to look no further than the mirror for the source of the blame for that situation.

Edited to add: I'm not a clinician, I was there as a volunteer, as were my peers.
Edited further to clarify: The numbers requiring hospitalisation are simultaneous, not cumulative.
 
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Some journalist asking BoJo if the NHS might be "worrying people unnecessarily" :oops: :$ - a week ago the CMO said 20k death toll would be getting off lightly. The planning now is for 250k+ deaths (that's a bit more than everyone in Southampton)

View: https://BANNED/Peston/status/1239639759259140098
 
Imagine if govts were to give up trying to help us, hiding themselves away in secure bunkers or whatever they may have available for themselves and simply leaving us to fend for ourselves .

Most govts are trying to implement measures to help the people of their country........something that has to be unimaginably difficult when battling against the lack of basic discipline from the population.
 
MatBin said:
In your view, is that not ironic, what makes you right?
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Why are you asking. You don’t believe in evidence based arguments only in what you feel is correct.
 
hunnymonster said:
Some journalist asking BoJo if the NHS might be "worrying people unnecessarily" :oops: :$ - a week ago the CMO said 20k death toll would be getting off lightly. The planning now is for 250k+ deaths (that's a bit more than everyone in Southampton)
View: https://BANNED/Peston/status/1239639759259140098
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That 250K is well out of date (see the date of tweet) and based on the "mitigation" approach that the Government used at the beginning of the epidemic. We are now following the 'suppression" approach which is giving the current lower estimates.

What is correct, is that it was the results of this modelling that caused the rapid switch in the Government's policy from the original mitigation approach to the suppression approach.
 
Tringa said:
That lot take the prize for bloody arrogance.

Dave
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Actually it’s not arrogance though it’s hard for us to understand, and they should be stopped. There was an interesting comment on that article, it’s a bit off topic but deals with apparent ignorance which has been discussed here, this is part:
“I was raised evangelical in a small town in the Midwest, but I've been an atheist ever since my teen years.

My experience gave me two insights:

  • The people in the church were some of the nicest, kindest, most generous people I've ever met.
  • Their world view is so extreme that the further I've gotten from it, the more bats*** insane it seems.

On the first point, the people were genuinely nice, and not just to other Christians, but to random strangers. They were people who actually believed in being Good Samaritans.”

Commenter on https://arstechnica.com/science/202...rus-risk/?comments=1&sort=insightful#comments

The comment is much longer is the one of those rated “most insightful”
 
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Dave70D said:
I can really understand folk falling out over what brand of camera to have, but falling out over who knows what is silly as at the end of the day 1,000s are dying so again I ask for ME please don`t get this thread locked... Thank you.
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There seems to be daily fallouts now on this thread. Can we not just let everyone express their own thoughts and opinions without people losing the rag. Let’s be honest if anyone in the world had the perfect solution to the virus we would have heard about by now.
 
Peter10d said:
There seems to be daily fallouts now on this thread. Can we not just let everyone express their own thoughts and opinions without people losing the rag. Let’s be honest if anyone in the world had the perfect solution to the virus we would have heard about by now.
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Agreed,(y)
I've ony been back in here a few hours and already seen a number of potential and unnecessary provocations
 
myotis said:
That 250K is well out of date (see the date of tweet) and based on the "mitigation" approach that the Government used at the beginning of the epidemic. We are now following the 'suppression" approach which is giving the current lower estimates.

What is correct, is that it was the results of this modelling that caused the rapid switch in the Government's policy from the original mitigation approach to the suppression approach.
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Carry on - that 250k was the most optimistic interpretation on March 16 - it's still lower than the midpoint expectation today.

Low 180k (Aberdeen), Mid 360k (Cardiff), High 700k (Glasgow & a bit) - according to figures I saw today at work
 
Asha said:
Agreed,(y)
I've ony been back in here a few hours and already seen a number of potential and unnecessary provocations
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I'm sorry but....Pot Kettle Black.

Your first post on here was to berate a member who works as a nurse in the NHS, for not listening to a guy, who works at Fords, on infection control!
 
I have spent an hour or so this afternoon researching where my wife and I can go tomorrow for some exercise.
Fortunately the Fens are nearby, not an area of natural beauty or attractive to the tourist.

If people can act responsibly I don't see a reason why we need a total lock down.
Even going to a shop could be relatively risk free if people behave sensibly

One drawback, there is no cure for stupid
 
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I hope when ( it's now almost a guarantee) a serious lockdown is in place for you guys in the UK, that the TV channels look at offering a decent mix of films / documentaries and more importantly comedies ( to help keep moral) cos after a week of confinement out here, the TV remains just as crap as it's always been:confused:

Another evening trying to slowly work through some PP may be on the cards :rolleyes:
 
jakeblu said:
I'm sorry but....Pot Kettle Black.

Your first post on here was to berate a member who works as a nurse in the NHS, for not listening to a guy, who works at Fords, on infection control!
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I got a gold star though for not rising :woot::woot::woot::woot:
 
jakeblu said:
I'm sorry but....Pot Kettle Black.

Your first post on here was to berate a member who works as a nurse in the NHS, for not listening to a guy, who works at Fords, on infection control!
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Please refrain from provoking a debate/ argument between us both unless you have an urge to pay my fine for breach of confinement (presently 135 euros but expected to increase) whilst we go on "holiday" together.;)
 
hunnymonster said:
Carry on - that 250k was the most optimistic interpretation on March 16 - it's still lower than the midpoint expectation today.

Low 180k (Aberdeen), Mid 360k (Cardiff), High 700k (Glasgow & a bit) - according to figures I saw today at work
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I don't know anything about the other numbers you quote, but the 250k from the model presented in the paper shown in the tweet was exactly as I said.

Have you read the paper, I can't find anything about this 250k being an optimistic estimate, just that "IF" we continued with the mitigation approach (which we didn't) the deaths would be in the "order of" 250k, which as I said prompted a change in approach.

Do you have any additional info on the numbers you quote, I'm not sure I follow what they mean and how they relate to the towns.
 
Asha said:
Please refrain from provoking a debate/ argument between us both unless you have an urge to pay my fine for breach of confinement (presently 135 euros but expected to increase) whilst we go on "holiday" together.;)
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Donnie said:
I got a gold star though for not rising :woot::woot::woot::woot:
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Perhaps I'll get two gold stars then ;)
 
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