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Anyone any view on if we leave eu the affect on prices - particularly high end kit.
and please use their services
what if uk leaves eu - effect on prices
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That is exactly the point Adam.
Sterling has already taken a hit because of the uncertainty around in or out. If we are in, sterling will recover as essentially there is no change to trade deals etc, a return to the status quo which means the financial markets know what to expect.
In an exit scenario, sterling will be take a further hit as there will be immense uncertainty around the impact on the economy. Financial markets don't like uncertainty.
Sterling has already taken a hit because of the uncertainty around in or out. If we are in, sterling will recover as essentially there is no change to trade deals etc, a return to the status quo which means the financial markets know what to expect.
In an exit scenario, sterling will be take a further hit as there will be immense uncertainty around the impact on the economy. Financial markets don't like uncertainty.
The latest was if we trade on WTO then it would cost us 9bn on import so prices would go up.
It's not that simple.
If we charge tariffs on imports then HMG gets that money - so that offsets taxes or perhaps pays off (a minute amount) of the deficit. The cost to the UK as a whole is neutral.
The issue AIUI to keep things happy with the WTO is that you have to impose tariffs consistently to stop countries behaving unfairly - so the issue is that outside the EU we would have to impose tariffs on EU imports. They would have to similarly impose tariffs on our exports. So the question is would that make any difference to your camera imported from China, Japan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand or Indonesia. The obvious answer is no - not if the EU imposes the same tariffs already because we are already subject to them within the EU.
Another factor to consider is that trade within the EU became much simpler from the early the 90s onwards. So today if you want to buy a camera from Germany then you don't worry about duty and VAT as it's all dealt with as if you were buying in the UK - and businesses trading with businesses don't have to worry about duty and dealing with VAT is relatively straightforward.
I think in answer to the original question is that over the medium term it's currency that is the primary factor that will affect prices. On things like photographic equipment import tariffs from outside the EU will probably be the same.
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Short-term the pound takes a dive against pretty much all currencies. Imports (and holidays) get more expensive. All very up-down, but mostly down with a dead cat bounce or two,
Medium- to long-term impossible to say. It depends what agreements are reached and how the markets respond to them. The markets are inherently conservative and dislike change/uncertainty, so expect volatility for a prolonged period until negotiations are well underway and the future looks less uncertain. Political decisions may favour lowering the value of Sterling to keep exporting attractive at the expense of consumer buying power. The uncertain post-Brexit UK political landscape doesn't help with making predictions. Which direction will the Conservative party lurch (under Boris or Gove or AN Other)? will the Left collapse or rally?
Medium- to long-term impossible to say. It depends what agreements are reached and how the markets respond to them. The markets are inherently conservative and dislike change/uncertainty, so expect volatility for a prolonged period until negotiations are well underway and the future looks less uncertain. Political decisions may favour lowering the value of Sterling to keep exporting attractive at the expense of consumer buying power. The uncertain post-Brexit UK political landscape doesn't help with making predictions. Which direction will the Conservative party lurch (under Boris or Gove or AN Other)? will the Left collapse or rally?
LongLensPhotography
Th..th..that's all folks!
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Both £ and euro would nosedive for their own reasons. This would make Jap and Chinese as well as US imports a little or even a lot more expensive, unless government cuts VAT and import tax (I don't see that happening).
Buy some gold or fancy flash car or big fat white lens as an investment now if you want a bit of an "insurance policy". In the worst case they will be fun to use.
Buy some gold or fancy flash car or big fat white lens as an investment now if you want a bit of an "insurance policy". In the worst case they will be fun to use.
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I think the short term prices of everything imported will go up as the pound will likely collapse against all major currencies in case of brexit. In mid term there will be impact of recession in the economy which can take a couple of years.
If planning a purchase, buy now.
If planning a purchase, buy now.
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Experts tell us this and that, the same experts that did not predict the last crash in 2008...
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Not quite. See chart showing the last 2 years below. Sterling has dropped since all the talk of Brexit:
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Agreed.
An exit vote will definitely hit us economically in the short term as the markets wait to see what the fallout will be and its impact.
Medium-Long Term - who knows !
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In the short term Sterling will fall and as a result imports will rise. You'll feel it more with high end equipment.
In the medium to long term then no-one really knows.
The Brexit camp argue that free of EU meddling our economy will soar so in theory the pound will rise against the dollar & the Euro in turn making gear made abroad cheaper.
The remain camp argue that we're better off in the EU where we'll grow more than out of the EU so in theory the pound will rise against the dollar & the Euro in turn making gear made abroad cheaper.
Most economists agree that we will be better off in the long run within EU from an economic point of view. Personally i think those predicting the demise of the EU have taken a very short term view of the last few turbulent years. Longer term larger markets do better. That's why countries do trade deals like NAFTA & ASEAN.
So in answer to the question, no-one really knows but most experts agree that in the long run your imported cameras would be cheaper (relatively) if we stay than if we go.
In the medium to long term then no-one really knows.
The Brexit camp argue that free of EU meddling our economy will soar so in theory the pound will rise against the dollar & the Euro in turn making gear made abroad cheaper.
The remain camp argue that we're better off in the EU where we'll grow more than out of the EU so in theory the pound will rise against the dollar & the Euro in turn making gear made abroad cheaper.
Most economists agree that we will be better off in the long run within EU from an economic point of view. Personally i think those predicting the demise of the EU have taken a very short term view of the last few turbulent years. Longer term larger markets do better. That's why countries do trade deals like NAFTA & ASEAN.
So in answer to the question, no-one really knows but most experts agree that in the long run your imported cameras would be cheaper (relatively) if we stay than if we go.
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If we leave can we still use our Continental Quilts ?
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Call me a cynic but I think everything will go up in price because they can "blame Brexit", whether true or not.
It's called capitalism.
It's called capitalism.
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If we leave can we still use our Continental Quilts ?
Only whilst camping on the continent.
I am completely sick to the back teeth of foreign bedding coming over here keeping us warm at night, putting blankets out of a jobIf we leave can we still use our Continental Quilts ?
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Most? but not all.
Agreed, so that's the rest of the world then?
The EU is stagnant & our exports to the EU have been decreasing over many years. (now less than 44%)
Exactly.
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To be fair, we didn't stop making it.
We stopped "Buying British" because:
- in the '70s and '80s we were making a lot of s*** stuff that was no bloody good (e.g. the British car industry) and there was no drive to modernise/improve
- from the '90s onwards we got tight-fisted and wanted everything cheap (e.g. the rise of Primark and the slow death of the UK textiles industry)
I can think of several medium/large businesses locally that are not well known household names in the UK but have international reputations as leaders in their industries and full EU/ROW order books.
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You very rarely get experts agreeing on anything but the overwhelming majority of experts agree staying in the EU is better. Funny how the Brexiteer's just dismiss that but I bet if it were the other way around they'd be trumpeting it from the rooftops as gospel.
During this referendum it's absolutely flabbered my ghast how many pro-exit people have ignored inconvenient truths or made sh*t up. Top of the list is the £350m per week codswallop.
There's nothing to stop us from trading with the rest of the world right now. It's not mutually exclusive. We can have free trade with the rest of EU countries AND trade with the rest of the world.
The EU GDP growth rate since 1996 has been about 1.68% which isn't bad for a first world economy with an all time high of 4.6% and yes a low of -5.4% during the financial crisis. The EU has actually grown faster than the UK average during the same period. In the first quarter of this year, the EU GDP growth rate was 1.8% vs 0.4% in the UK. But hey, don't let facts get in the way of you arguing the EU is stagnant eh?
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/european-union/gdp-annual-growth-rate
I'm sure you'll just dismiss this as the EU keeping blighty down and freed from the shackles of the EU we'd jump from 0.4% to 10% like China.
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???? What are you talking about ???
The whole point is if we stay in the EU, the pound will strengthen. If we exit, it will weaken - this is pretty much guaranteed.
What we don't know, and hence the speculation and therefore risk, is the result of the Brexit vote.
Tell me the result of the EU vote and I will "make loads of money in the currency markets" - using your words !
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If you can tell us which way the result will go...
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what do you mean "what am I talking about", read the postings above were people are convinced that the pound will fall ....... if they and (you) know what is going to happen, back your convictions with your money ............. that's what many are doing
read what has been said in this thread Alastair ........ Sterling seems "doomed" (in this thread) and according to the contributors can only go one way
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No ,if you read the thread you'll see that the predictions are that Sterling will fall if we vote to Leave. That's no certainty, despite what you may wish to believe.
A Remain vote will likely see a short-term spike in Sterling on the morning of the 24th.
Llamaman
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The OP asked what would happen IF the UK leaves the EU. The comments are based on that hypothesis. The effect on Sterling can be pretty much guaranteed to be negative in those hypothetical circumstances.
However, the result isn't guaranteed to be exit, so we can't be certain that sterling will fall.
All clear now?
Llamaman
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Unlikely to be the 24th. Apparently results might not be in for at least 24 hours after polling closes. Which is probably a good thing, as the result will be announced whilst markets are closed over the weekend.
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No if you read the predictions on this thread you will see that they are meaningless ............ is anyone remotely qualified on this thread to predict what will happen and even to say that it is a result of Brexit
and fall against what, there seems to be some confusion versus the dollar or the Euro .......... or maybe they mean ZAR
(experts - the same experts are predicting that Sterling will fall against the $ if we stay and that the Euro will also fall against the $ no matter what happens ....... the fundamentals, according to "the experts" are weak in both the UK and the EU versus the US - so according to the experts we should sell sterling and the Euro and buy $'s ........ but the ECB is still buying significant amounts of Euro Bonds on a monthly basis)
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Given the stock market fell last week by nearly 2% on the news that the latest poll put Brexit ahead of Remain. I think the odds of the pound and the stock market NOT falling if the UK votes to leave, are about as likely as I am to sleep with Nicole Sherzinger. Both are theoretically possible but in reality very unlikely to happen.
OP
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The markets will almost certainly react to exit polls, which will be available the minute the polls close on the 23rd. Plus, the markets never really close - the "official" markets just play catch-up first thing on Monday morning.
Do you feel confident enough that we're wrong to put it to a bet? They are just predictions, but do you think them unlikely or unrealistic? The options markets are already reported as covering likely drops post a Leave vote - www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36462507
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No we can't! Any exports outside the EU have to be sanctioned by them & at a cost.
Whichever way you try to big it up, the EU is a failing political experiment, which will ultimately fail.
(mods, should this thread be in the `hot topics`?
)
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Even the likes of M&S were sourcing cheaper & cheaper products. My Sister in law worked as a buyer for them & regularly travelled to China & India, so it's not all the likes of Primark's fault.
The death of the textile industry has been going on for nearly a 100 years. (for a few reasons)
My G/Dad worked in the cotton industry & travelled to Belgium & Germany to buy machinery/looms etc after WW2 , but as he said although the new machinery was a fantastic upgrade, it would be short term gain because during the mid 30's he'd been out to Egypt twice to supervise the installation of looms that we'd sold them, which enabled them to import textiles back to us cheaper than we could produce it.
Like many products, it's a race to the bottom on price & beggar the quality.