what if uk leaves eu - effect on prices

OldCarlos said:
Even the likes of M&S were sourcing cheaper & cheaper products. My Sister in law worked as a buyer for them & regularly travelled to China & India, so it's not all the likes of Primark's fault.
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Until at least the 1990s the St Michael brand was pretty much exclusively a "Made in GB" brand - and advertised as such. It was diluted by imports, then this accelerated as the cheaper retailers hit the High Street. Interestingly, M&S (minus St Michael) have started to again buy British cloth. Harris and Yorkshire tweeds are again making steady inroads, which as a fan of tweed I think is a very good sign - even if most of my tweeds are secondhand.

OldCarlos said:
The death of the textile industry has been going on for nearly a 100 years. (for a few reasons)
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Some of them being very good reasons. It made no sense at all (other than from the point of view of Empire, capitalism and profiteering) to ship Indian cotton to Manchester to ship back to India whilst suppressing the Indian cloth industry to protect the Lancashire mills.
 
Alastair said:
Until at least the 1990s the St Michael brand was pretty much exclusively a "Made in GB" brand - and advertised as such. It was diluted by imports, then this accelerated as the cheaper retailers hit the High Street. Interestingly, M&S (minus St Michael) have started to again buy British cloth. Harris and Yorkshire tweeds are again making steady inroads, which as a fan of tweed I think is a very good sign - even if most of my tweeds are secondhand.

I saw a while ago that they seem more focused on quality again. (y)


Some of them being very good reasons. It made no sense at all (other than from the point of view of Empire, capitalism and profiteering) to ship Indian cotton to Manchester to ship back to India whilst suppressing the Indian cloth industry to protect the Lancashire mills.
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Some were good reasons, not arguing with you at all. As is the case in almost every decision.......politics.
 
OldCarlos said:
No we can't! Any exports outside the EU have to be sanctioned by them & at a cost.
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Would you care to back that up with a reference article?
 
Llamaman said:
??!!! Are you trying to claim that the EU can veto Britain's exports?
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Apologies, I was referring to trade deals when replying to gadgeteer who mentioned free trade deals within the EU.
 
Do you feel confident enough that we're wrong to put it to a bet? They are just predictions said:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36462507[/URL]
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I have in a way, as you know I live in France/UK and part in S Africa, (I mention this as the ZAR ER has been really interesting over the past 5 years and is still worth keeping an eye on), so the Euro/Sterling situation is important to me from a number of standpoints, it affects me personally and significantly if I make the wrong judgement ....... I have been retired for almost 25 years ... I am an active investor and manage my own money and split my assets in a way that I think is right for my exposure/risk profile, I am in no way deserting Sterling assets, (certainly not for Euro assets), but it would be wrong for me to express my specific views on here but I do put my money were my mouth is ........ and gain or lose as a consequence

I don't bet, and certainly not on an internet forum, I invest depending on the circumstances and the information and experience that I have ...... which I have followed over the past 23 years of retirement, previous to that I had a certain level of experience/knowledge through my work environment ......... I take a conservative approach and am not swayed by sensational statements and certainly not by opinions taken from reported "news" media and regurgitated on the internet.

start by looking at why currency, (any exchange rate), has moved in the last few months and decide if Brexit will be important in the future value of Sterling ...... unless you are into currency speculation, I have and have certainly invested in the Euro and £ at various times, look at assets groups and their exposure to current risks if you feel that is important, if not look at the usual fundamentals which are really important ......... and in overall terms look at the fundamentals of the UK and the EU without the UK, if that is to happen ....... if the UK remains in the EU .... the status quo may be maintained, but will the £/Euro exchange rate? ........ keep uptodate with what is happening in the EU Member states . particularly from economic and financial standpoints .. just don't look at the UK reported news

I am more concerned about what is happening in the EU now, and in the coming year(s) than what may happen if the UK leave the EU and how this will affect my financial position ... the focus seems to be on the UK not the EU, were the real fundemental problems lie .. take some time and study the economies of the major EU nations, excepting Germany and also look at the structural positions of the newer members and any new members that may be invited in

I live in France, am resident here and intend to continue to be so
 
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OldCarlos said:
Apologies, I was referring to trade deals when replying to gadgeteer who mentioned free trade deals within the EU.
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Right, so we are clear that the UK can, in fact, export to whomever it likes (subject, of course, to sanctions) without EU permission and that your comment to the contrary was tosh?

This confusion between exports and trade deals seems to be prevalent amongst the Brexit camp. I've lost track of how many times I've heard a Brexiter scoff that 'of course we'll still be able to buy French wine' as if that had ever been questioned.
 
Unfortunately if we do leave all the negativity being spouted, even by the government themselves could become a self fulfilling prophecy.

I felt this way during the last recession. Whilst there are factors obviously out of our control most people were still in work but with low interest rates their mortgage repayments were lower than ever leaving more disposable income in their pockets. However the bbc and other news programmes constantly showed downwards spiralling graphs and constant doom and gloom which encouraged people to hide the money under the bed. Because there was no feel good factor they weren't spending it and then businesses did start suffering and people lost jobs.

In an country that just seems to be about consumerism and financial trading the worst thing we can do is shout from the rooftops that the pound will drop and there will be problems. We need to start being positive and selling the strengths of UK plc the day we leave if it happens. If the foreign investors keep their money here and in the pound then there would be a much better chance of the status quo remaining and the U.K. Succeeding which is surely what the world needs if we leave the eu. I hope if we do leave it does not become a 'I told you so' situation especially from politicians who should be concentrating on accepting a decision and taking us forward.

Personally back to the original posters question i think there is much scaremongering about trade tariffs if we leave. I'm sure the petty eu will take spiteful measures because we left the pack of cards before it came tumbling down. However common sense must apply. We buy £100bn from the eu and they only buy £10bn from us. We are a very good customer who they will not want to lose, we are obviously well off to be purchasing £90bn more than we are bringing in. Even if they don't want that business someone will, surely some of it for that difference could be done within the uk instead.

My advice, even if the camera does cost you a couple of quid more is you can obviously afford it so support a British business and buy it anyway to show confidence in an independent uk.
 
what surprises me is that all the talk in the UK media has been about assumptions/forecasts as to what will happen to/in the UK if the UK leaves or stays .... without really considering the current state of the EU and it's effect on the Euro

No-one seems to be reporting what is happening in the EU, (say in France, Spain, Greece, Portugal and Italy) and the fundamentals of the EU, current and future prospects

If the UK stays in the EU ...... any negative downturn and there are serious signs, in the EU will significantly affect the UK, even with the Cameron negotiated concessions and the UK's non Euro currency stance

Spend an hour or two just looking at France and Spain, their fundamentals, labour market and what is now happening. You will also find the political situation somewhat unstable and as much or even more Eurosceptism than there appears to be in the UK

There are now few strong countries in the EU ........... and there are no strong countries left to join the EU ........ the burden of finance will always be taken by the original 6 EU Member States plus the UK if it stays ...... so it's 6 or 7 supporting 28 plus the EU central administration
From an investment standpoint I see the UK being stronger than the EU and from a currency standpoint I see Sterling being a better bet than the Euro, (although speculators are taking advantage of the current situation to do what they always do)

To answer the OP's original question I do not see that if the UK leave the EU any (small) increase in the cost of living, (an certainly the cost of camera kit), deemed to be due to Brexit will not be noticeable by the "man in the street"

but that's only my opinion

(if you think you know the answer and want to back your feelings in a couple of simple ways, if you have both a Euro and Sterling Bank Account, you can look at buying currency and if you have the ability to "manage your pension fund" you can switch asset/geographic groups to back your feelings) ... or you can just say "I told you so" .. ..... Ladbrokes today 11/8 to Leave and 4/7 to Stay - they reckon 40% to Leave and 60% to Stay



and I have just seen this reported

"Chancellor George Osborne warned that taxes would rise and spending would be cut if Britain votes to exit the EU."

how responsible do you think that statement is?
 
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BillN_33 said:
No-one seems to be reporting what is happening in the EU, (say in France, Spain, Greece, Portugal and Italy) and the fundamentals of the EU, current and future prospects
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Because the headline media is based around the "little islander" mindset, that Britain is "Great" and the rest of the world isn't relevant.


We do have our saving spread across UK and EU accounts and have been balancing things up to minimise the risk, moving to Germany has been a prospect for several years. The Euro does have some serious problems, In or Out there's always the risk of blow-back if these problems trigger a collapse, the risk to the UK of a Euro collapse isn't much different whether we're In or Out of the EU. As long as they're a neighbour and trading partner there's a risk. We can't pull up the anchor and sail the island someplace else.
 
Alastair said:
Because the headline media is based around the "little islander" mindset, that Britain is "Great" and the rest of the world isn't relevant.


We do have our saving spread across UK and EU accounts and have been balancing things up to minimise the risk, moving to Germany has been a prospect for several years. The Euro does have some serious problems, In or Out there's always the risk of blow-back if these problems trigger a collapse, the risk to the UK of a Euro collapse isn't much different whether we're In or Out of the EU. As long as they're a neighbour and trading partner there's a risk. We can't pull up the anchor and sail the island someplace else.
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agreed ...... spread is the way to go .......... but all the talk now is the strength of the $ and the US economy ...... but their election is looming?

so the uncertainties are not particularly in the UK, or not even in the UK ....... they are more in the EU and the rest of the world and putting a little more distance between the UK and the EU is maybe the way to go as the UK is not really a full member of the EU and at best the UK wants one foot in and one foot out, which could be painful

...... as I said just look at France, unemployment, strikes, unstable government, Eurosceptics, Right wing and all the Unions fighting "tooth and nail" against any labour reforms .... which most people think are needed . I live in France but would not invest a penny in it as it now stands

just looking at the odd specific

one thing that I would be concerned about is the EU's attitude to the City and the UK financial services sector ..... I know that it does not have a great reputation with some in the UK, but they pay a shed load of Tax, (which others in the country would have to pay if it did not), and are very successful ....... outside the EU I believe that it is safer, better and will be more successful .......... inside the EU they will always try to regulate, change it and take some of it's power away

I know in "the City" some are saying Stay ....... I have yet to figure out why
 
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Llamaman said:
Right, so we are clear that the UK can, in fact, export to whomever it likes (subject, of course, to sanctions) without EU permission and that your comment to the contrary was tosh?

This confusion between exports and trade deals seems to be prevalent amongst the Brexit camp. I've lost track of how many times I've heard a Brexiter scoff that 'of course we'll still be able to buy French wine' as if that had ever been questioned.
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I explained my post above re free trade in reply to another poster. I don't need you to say `tosh` to try to win your argument. (n) The UK can not make our own trade deals with other countries without the EU. OK with that? (y)

The `confusion` as you put it, is from both sides & comes from misinformation & assumptions, bringing the debate/argument down to the lowest common denominator to try to score cheap points, which are then used to muddy the waters & to put fear into the equation. Heck many of the just old enough to vote group think we'll be physically leaving Europe!

Of course we'll be able to buy French wine, but it might just be a tad more expensive. We also might be able to buy Australian, South African, South American etc...... more cheaply.
 
To answer the question, prices will increase.
The reason for this is that almost everything is imported, and nobody accepts payment in £ sterling any more, the normal trading currency is the USD. This means that companies (like ours) who get their goods made elsewhere have to buy USD to pay for the goods, and even fear that we will leave the EEC has made the £ worth less against the dollar. All of the experts agree that if the decision is made to leave, the £ will fall dramatically, and Goldman Saccs have forecast a fall of 17% in a week... of course, Companies that export would benefit in this situation but in the real world, the only real exports that we have now are financial services, and if we vote to leave then that business will move abroad.

Or to put it another way, if enough people have believed Boris's lies then we're screwed. Politicians should put their country first, not their own ambitions but there you go...
 
Spy said:
Sad Day :(
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Yes, but it's called democracy. The people who have voted us out have also voted to destroy our economy, and now it looks like we're going to get the government we deserve too...
 
Democracy is a great thing if people have the brains to weed out fact from fiction.

Unfortunately, certain political characters put their own egos and careers before the good of the country.

They spin misinformation and unfortunately much of the public are too gullible to tell the difference. These are the same sort of people who would vote someone like Trump into presidential office. They believe the spin and just want change as opposed to looking at teh facts and consequences.

It appears this morning that Nigel Farage has backtracked on the £350m NHS funds and Daniel Hannan has backtracked on the immigration claims.

To make matters worse, the Bank of England is now having to find £250bn, that is 250.....billion.....pounds.....to prop up the economy. So much for all the financial benefits touted by teh Leave campaign.

The cherry on the cake ?
With the impact on sterling, we are no longer the fifth largest economy in the world. France has now overtaken us. How is that for irony
 
For those who were on the side of the Remain camp or who voted Leave and are now shocked at the deceit of the people they supported, sign the government petition here: https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

I imagine it won't make much difference but can't hurt.
 
Llamaman said:
??!!! Are you trying to claim that the EU can veto Britain's exports?
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If imports do not meet their regulations they can and do.
They can also put a tariff or duty on them if we have no agreement.
 
My worry on EU trade is that the EU will impose harsh terms or tariffs once we are out.

Not because of retribution but they will need to show other members that may be considering a similar referendum, that it is not in their interest to leave.

The UK could be made an example of the reasons not to leave.

Also, history tells us the trade deals can take many, many years to agree the detail and implement. In the meantime, we will have left the EU and be treated as any other 3rd party country whilst a preferential trade deal is negotiated.
 
PINNACLE said:
Panamoz has already put prices up 7Dii £900 on Monday £957 today.
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Not surprised - the pound has dropped massively this morning !

Hopefully, with the Bank of England's commitment to pump money into the economy, the pound may recover slightly over the coming weeks
 
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Yes, it seems to have recovered some of the loss after the initial shock but no wehere near what it was yesterday
 
Spy said:
Yes, it seems to have recovered some of the loss after the initial shock but no wehere near what it was yesterday
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Thats to be expected though, I guess we'll have to wait and see what happens over the next few weeks, its a good start though.
 
Spy said:
Yes, it seems to have recovered some of the loss after the initial shock but no wehere near what it was yesterday
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Just wait until the market opens in the US of A :(
 
mike_6480 said:
Currently down for maintenance ...
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Reminds me of a line from a Bond film... "He's dressed as a policeman now"
"Of course he is"

update:
"Currently down for maintenance"
"Of course it is"
 
I kind of agree that the rules shouldn't be changed after but given how close it was and now that some of the key Leave claims are being retracted, we should either leave it up to Parliament to vote one way or the other, or have another referendum.

Interesting that Farage also supported a second referendum for this exact same result, although he may retract that statement now as well ;)
 
And people are surprised that a politician or two lied to get their own way?
Never mind the exit vote, Its a shame we can't hold new general elections, when we find out that they have lied to us some months on.
We'd be having elections every few months at that rate :D
 
My biggest problem with the remain campaign (or more importantly the government remain campaign) was they never said what they would do if we chose to brexit. Other than an emergency budget (scare tactics), they didn't seem to have a plan to sort out the mess we would be in or at least didn't tell anyone what it was.
 
Nostromo said:
My biggest problem with the remain campaign (or more importantly the government remain campaign) was they never said what they would do if we chose to brexit. Other than an emergency budget (scare tactics), they didn't seem to have a plan to sort out the mess we would be in or at least didn't tell anyone what it was.
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Perhaps they didn't think that 52% of the country is terminally stupid
 
Nostromo said:
My biggest problem with the remain campaign (or more importantly the government remain campaign) was they never said what they would do if we chose to brexit. Other than an emergency budget (scare tactics), they didn't seem to have a plan to sort out the mess we would be in or at least didn't tell anyone what it was.
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Why should they? It was for Leave to set out their vision for post-Brexit.
 
Exactly.

And name calling when you represent a company we may all use in the future wouldn't help the economy would it?
 
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