Why mirrorless sales are disapointing

My thoughts are a confused market: at one end trying to push everyone from APS-C to full frame and at the other to m43, and with all camps declaring that their way is the best way. Both involved a certain amount of expense in a system change, so many resist it.

One person I know just got a Olympus OMD E-M5 and inside of 2 weeks is considering selling a raft of decent canon kit to swap. I called him mad, he said try it and be surprised. And that I think is the sticking point: trying it costs too much. An SLR I know, m43 I don't and trying it for long enough to know what's what means buying in (or talking someone into lending you some kit) and that's just too much for many. Lower that barrier to entry and I truly believe CSC has the ability to replace the bottom end of the DSLR market where AF speed, FPS and super telephotos don't matter. It could also replace a lot of the pro market where the rugged DSLR isn't needed and the smaller size may help, but first people need it in their hands.

The cost-to-switch has been steadily dropping when you compare mid-range DSLRs to their CSC counterparts. I'll take Fuji as an example purely because I know it best and it's the system that I switched into, and because with an APS-C sensor it's the most comparable to mid-range DSLRs. A Fuji X-Pro1 with three prime lenses (18mm, 35mm, 60mm) worked out over the new year/christmas period at £1058 (it's now about £50 higher). Now an all-prime set-up won't suit everyone, but right now you could have the 18-55, 55-200 and an X-series body for about the same price. That's very competitive system buy-in price compared to a mid-range DSLR system from Canon or Nikon. Once you factor in the quality of the bodies and lenses it's competitive with entry-level DSLR system buy-in prices.

It's the sunk-cost investment price that's the killer - not the £1,000 you need to spend to buy the new system, but the £2,500 you've already spent on your current system. There's the false assumption that by switching you're admitting your previous system was a mistake that you made. People don't like even thinking that they may have made a mistake.
 
But it's not saturated with quality mirrorless cameras. It's saturated with cameras that aren't as good as dSLRs. They all lack decent AF, don't have the image quality of high end SLRs and don't have access to the fantastic range of Canon and Nikon lenses.

There will be professional grade mirrorless cameras and they will be launched by both Canon and Nikon.
I think the IQ point has been sorted above.

We know about the af

As for lens line ups, well are comparing apples to apples here? How's the lens line up in this rumoured Nikon mirrorless camera? A rumour simply won't cut it against established 4th and 5th generation competition.
 
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To be fair it's the sunk cost I have in Nikon that's keeping me there. I did consider a canon switch for the 5d iii but I'd loose too much in the process.

However if I can try a m43 for a week or so it may replace the std zoom I am considering (price isn't miles different). However it's getting those 2 weeks hands on without just jumping in with both feet incase it turns out to be a bad fit.
 
To be fair it's the sunk cost I have in Nikon that's keeping me there. I did consider a canon switch for the 5d iii but I'd loose too much in the process.

However if I can try a m43 for a week or so it may replace the std zoom I am considering (price isn't miles different). However it's getting those 2 weeks hands on without just jumping in with both feet incase it turns out to be a bad fit.

You could always buy used and lose next to nothing if you decide to sell it.
 
To be fair it's the sunk cost I have in Nikon that's keeping me there. I did consider a canon switch for the 5d iii but I'd loose too much in the process.

However if I can try a m43 for a week or so it may replace the std zoom I am considering (price isn't miles different). However it's getting those 2 weeks hands on without just jumping in with both feet incase it turns out to be a bad fit.

Buy a used one, try it for 2 weeks and you can probably sell it for what you paid for it - bit of a hassle, but you shouldn't lose much if any money doing so - any small loss can be looked at as a 'hire' cost. You can also hire some Olympus m43 models (See http://e-group.uk.net/forum/forumdisplay.php?f=44 ) and I think you can claim back the cost of a 3 day hire if you go on to make a purchase? Olympus also do quite a few demo days and the like: http://www.olympus-imagespace.co.uk/index.php/whats-on/events
 
I lost £200 on my 17-55 I bought used as the market changed in the 10 months I've owned it. And that's just one lens. You can't always assume minimal cost difference.

But you were talking 2 weeks in your previous post, now youre talking 10 months?!
 
I lost £200 on my 17-55 I bought used as the market changed in the 10 months I've owned it. And that's just one lens. You can't always assume minimal cost difference.

In 10 months - but you wanted a 2 weeks hands on.
 
When was that last time you said "2 weeks" and that's what happened. Whilst yes it wouldn't be 10 months it would probably round out to about 2 or 3 by the time you get round to selling it on again (it's a hassle). But no you're not going to loose loads, but its a large upfront cost doing it that way too.

I may however have a look at that hire linked.
 
I can't believe people who love mirrorless so much don't think Nikon and Canon will release a mirrorless pro grade camera that will work with their existing pro lens range. Really quite laughable.

As for the lack of decent AF, that's why mirrorless cameras are no use to me and many pro photographers. Couple that with zero decent long lens options and I'm very happy sticking with my dSLRs for the foreseeable.
 
I can't believe people who love mirrorless so much don't think Nikon and Canon will release a mirrorless pro grade camera that will work with their existing pro lens range. Really quite laughable.

As for the lack of decent AF, that's why mirrorless cameras are no use to me and many pro photographers. Couple that with zero decent long lens options and I'm very happy sticking with my dSLRs for the foreseeable.

Well we are pleased that you are happy!!! Just because they don't meet your needs, doesn't mean they have to be given a pasting, they just don't suit your intended use. Many are happy with them. There is room in the camera world for both types, it's not them and us!!!!

One of big selling points of Mirrorless is size, so to have a mirrorless camera taking existing pro-glass probably defeats the object, if that sales model was so successful then the EOS M (and M2) would be a runaway success.
 
The camera is a tool,stick with the camera that is most suitable for the job you use that tool for :)

I asked a dealer a little while back who the biggest market for ccs for them,and they said it was mainly middle aged gentlemen,and most were swapping over because they didn't want to carry a large DSLR kit around anymore.
 
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Well we are pleased that you are happy!!! Just because they don't meet your needs, doesn't mean they have to be given a pasting, they just don't suit your intended use. Many are happy with them. There is room in the camera world for both types, it's not them and us!!!!

I believe I have already said exactly that. I only questioned the "quality" claim of current mirrorless cameras. I don't believe any camera that is trying to compete with dSLRs and has a poor AF system can be described as quality.
 
I can't believe people who love mirrorless so much don't think Nikon and Canon will release a mirrorless pro grade camera that will work with their existing pro lens range. Really quite laughable.

As for the lack of decent AF, that's why mirrorless cameras are no use to me and many pro photographers. Couple that with zero decent long lens options and I'm very happy sticking with my dSLRs for the foreseeable.

I'm off to Hong Kong soon and my camera kit fits nicely into a small pouch. I'll be able to carry the camera and lens round all day and night. The thought of a Nikon D700 and 24-70 lens hanging from my neck fills me with dread and that is one of the main reasons I switched. I no longer have to go out with a rucksack full of camera equipment. It makes me happy, it makes my wife happy and my X Pro 1 produces photographs which are indistinguishable from my pro Nikon stuff, and the AF is just as good (don't listen to the hype about AF, it extremely fast, and very accurate).
 
Lower that barrier to entry and I truly believe CSC has the ability to replace the bottom end of the DSLR market where AF speed, FPS and super telephotos don't matter. It could also replace a lot of the pro market where the rugged DSLR isn't needed and the smaller size may help, but first people need it in their hands.

AFAIK several CSC actually focus faster than eny DSLR and with a greater degree of accuracy with no front / back focus issues. The only advantage AF wise to DSLR's is AFAIK tracking, but I believe that CSC will get there too.

On price, at the moment the spec of many CSC probably exceeds that of entry level DLSR's so why shouldn't they cost more?
 
I believe I have already said exactly that. I only questioned the "quality" claim of current mirrorless cameras. I don't believe any camera that is trying to compete with dSLRs and has a poor AF system can be described as quality.


What do you mean by a poor AF system?

Some CSC focus very quickly and the world record for the fastest focusing body and lens combo is usually held by the latest CSC. Plus CSC's don't suffer the front and back focus issues that seem to affect many DSLR+lens combo's. AFAIK the only advantage DSLR's hold is in tracking so maybe that's your point?
 
I can't believe people who love mirrorless so much don't think Nikon and Canon will release a mirrorless pro grade camera that will work with their existing pro lens range. Really quite laughable.

As for the lack of decent AF, that's why mirrorless cameras are no use to me and many pro photographers. Couple that with zero decent long lens options and I'm very happy sticking with my dSLRs for the foreseeable.

It's because of Canon's track record that we doubt the two big guns will wade into the market seriously any time soon.

They dabbled with the EOS-M, and now won't even be marketing the follow-up EOS-M2 globally (it won't be available in the US, for example). I suspect Canon and Nikon have two main worries:
  • If they produce a serious mirror-less camera it may damage their DSLR sales and they've a big chunk of their resources invested in servicing the DSLR market. They've optimised all the business processes to work with this one style of camera body. They're brands are both heavily identified with "the big black camera".
  • All the serious mirror-less manufacturers have gone back to the drawing board and produced lens mounts, lens systems, etc. optimised for the CSC format. The cock-eyed approach that Sony have taken with their lens mounts shows the risks and costs associated with fart-ar$ing around trying to maintain some degree of semi-compatibility with existing lens ecologies. Do Canon and Nikon really want to invest in new lens mounts and new lens line-ups when not only will this be more expensive for any new system it may also hit economies of scale benefits to their current systems?
My guess is that we'll see Canon and Nikon continue to play it very cautiously from the sidelines with their current EOS-M and Nikon 1 offerings. They'll try and come into the market once the current early proponent manufacturers have started to turn the corner. But they'll focus on using adapters with the new cameras to plug in to their existing lens line-ups, which will just make a mockery of the concept of a compact system camera. Again, a mistake that Sony have already made with the A7/r (nice camera, lenses in the post - to arrive.. eventually, maybe, perhaps?).


But maybe the original AP article is already out of date. In today's issue Olympus are reporting 19% growth in mirror-less sales, and Fujifilm have already reported that mirror-less sales are responsible for a significant improvement on the losses posted in the last few years.
 
It could also replace a lot of the pro market where the rugged DSLR isn't needed and the smaller size may help, but first people need it in their hands.

I agree with you. I thought long and hard about making the jump to Fuji this year. The reasons I didn't had nothing to do with IQ AF or AF speed. I think the small size is fantastic. The image quality is such that printed in an album, I can't tell the difference between my Fuji and my D800. (That may change at very big sizes) I also believe for the social photographer AF is more then good enough. The reasons I didn't are

  • Lack of TTL triggers. I know when I'm working TTL is a bit of a godsend and I wouldn't want to lose that.
  • Perception. I struggle with how people perceive them. The like having big black boxes pointed at them.
  • The lack of decent, longish, primes (portrait length so 85-135 mm FF equiv)
Of course I may be thinking again with the XT1 and new 56mm from fuji​
 
Also worldwide their was a drop in DSLR sales last year,Nikon are at a kind of crossroad at the moment,as a company as a whole they are out of all the camera manufacture out their, that most reliant on cameras sales 76% Canon 29%,so any lost in cameras sales overall hits them the hardest.
Most of the ccs company are lower ranging from about 15% to 4%,making it very hard to predict which cameras will be around in a few years time :)
 
Most of the ccs company are lower ranging from about 15% to 4%,making it very hard to predict which cameras will be around in a few years time :)

I'll hazard a guess that the Sony E mount will be around for a while, as will Panasonic/Olympus MFT and Fuji X. However unless Sony decides to make more lenses available quickly the Sony FE mount is looking vulnerable, and Samsung is looking a bit too niche to be truly secure long-term.

I may be on my own with this opinion, but I genuinely think that Sony have fluffed it with the A7 and A7r as full-frame mirror-less CSCs - focussing on the bodies and failing to provide a complete system.
 
I I don't believe any camera that is trying to compete with dSLRs and has a poor AF system can be described as quality.
I get more in-focus shots with my CSC than I ever did with my DSLR - why - because focus is done by the sensor,not by some phase detect system with mechanical tolerances and different lenses that may or may not get it quite right.

In fact, I consider DSLR focus systems to be very poor these days.
 
If you're sticking grips on you may as well get a DSLR.
The reason I moved to CSCs was lens size and quality, not body size (I have a gripped GH3 which replaced a gripped 5D2 - much more compact)
 
I'll hazard a guess that the Sony E mount will be around for a while, as will Panasonic/Olympus MFT and Fuji X. However unless Sony decides to make more lenses available quickly the Sony FE mount is looking vulnerable, and Samsung is looking a bit too niche to be truly secure long-term.

I may be on my own with this opinion, but I genuinely think that Sony have fluffed it with the A7 and A7r as full-frame mirror-less CSCs - focussing on the bodies and failing to provide a complete system.

I agree with you about Sony,the problem with Sony is the company is split over so many division,and at the moment they have some other big fish to fry 4K tv PS-4 & Blu-ray :)
 
I'll hazard a guess that the Sony E mount will be around for a while, as will Panasonic/Olympus MFT and Fuji X. However unless Sony decides to make more lenses available quickly the Sony FE mount is looking vulnerable, and Samsung is looking a bit too niche to be truly secure long-term.

I may be on my own with this opinion, but I genuinely think that Sony have fluffed it with the A7 and A7r as full-frame mirror-less CSCs - focussing on the bodies and failing to provide a complete system.

They did that with the NEX system, I was an early adopter (as I was with the A7 and quickly returned to Fuji). Theyve now rebranded NEX to A, seriously wtf are they thinking?
 
I'll hazard a guess that the Sony E mount will be around for a while, as will Panasonic/Olympus MFT and Fuji X. However unless Sony decides to make more lenses available quickly the Sony FE mount is looking vulnerable, and Samsung is looking a bit too niche to be truly secure long-term.

I may be on my own with this opinion, but I genuinely think that Sony have fluffed it with the A7 and A7r as full-frame mirror-less CSCs - focussing on the bodies and failing to provide a complete system.

Only time will tell but at the moment the lenses that would interest me the most seem to be high quality. Personally I'd have been happy with something of the performance of a Sigma 50mm f1.4 which is a cracking lens IMVHO and I doubt I'd ever need anything better... but Sony seem to be aiming for better.

Personally the lack of FE lenses doesn't really bother me because I bought an A7 to use my manual Minolta and Olympus lenses on and for that it's pretty much perfect.
 
It's not really the naming that's the problem it's the lenses!

It must be ruinously expensive to bring out a new FF model (or two) and develop a lot of glass for it when there aren't many users. Sony as a whole is losing money hand over fist each year too...

Chicken and egg though, no glass = no users etc.
 
Only time will tell but at the moment the lenses that would interest me the most seem to be high quality. Personally I'd have been happy with something of the performance of a Sigma 50mm f1.4 which is a cracking lens IMVHO and I doubt I'd ever need anything better... but Sony seem to be aiming for better.

Personally the lack of FE lenses doesn't really bother me because I bought an A7 to use my manual Minolta and Olympus lenses on and for that it's pretty much perfect.

I think the problem is the roadmap removes the 'time will tell' equation. Because it does just that. Sony has never produced the glass people want for its cameras (or it takes ages for them to do so), in the meantime they will release body after body after body, devaluing previous models.

Thats why he referred to it as a complete system, not a camera body. I would say for users of average legacy like yourself though the A7 is a dream come true, unless you want to use certain lenses and then youll have problems especially if you bought it as a Leica replacement.
 
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The A7/R look the way forward for a CSC in that the user can basically mount any lens via an adapter and have high quality FE mount glass for autofocus. I can't really understand the small CSC body with a huge lens on the front though, makes me wonder why bother? I could see myself picking up an A7R and the Zeiss 55.
 
But for a pro to consider using one (from a wedding point of view), you'd need around 8-9. It's not so much the cost, it's the hassle to do it within very short windows of time.

We used to change films every twelve shots with a Rollieflex which was much more complex.
All my suit jackets had two over sized inside pockets, one for used and the other for new films, out of their wrappers ready to go.
did not used 12/20's they were too prone to scratches.
 
Who wants to charge up 9 batteries and keep track of the used ones? Just use a DSLR.
 
Who wants to charge up 9 batteries and keep track of the used ones? Just use a DSLR.

Its not difficult is it, job coming up, charge batteries, surely the same again applies to DSLR batteries. Bags have more than one 'pocket'. And 9 batteries is what he would use as an extreme, most will get away with far less.
 
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Who wants to charge up 9 batteries and keep track of the used ones? Just use a DSLR.

Or just use less power.

I use the EVF not the rear screen and I also turn the camera off if I'm not going to use it for a couple of minutes or more and I find that the battery power is adequate in my G1 and A7. I carry a spare for my A7 but have not yet needed to use it whilst out.
 
Personally the lack of FE lenses doesn't really bother me because I bought an A7 to use my manual Minolta and Olympus lenses on and for that it's pretty much perfect.

And that's the one appeal of the A7/r - a very niche market of old lens users. There's very little in the system to appeal to the average buyer also looking at a Canon or Nikon full-frame DSLR. There's nothing mid-range or affordable in the native mount.

I dread all the on-line posts calling for Fujifilm to produce a full-frame X-series - can they not see what a disaster it would be to "do a Sony" and try and support too many systems?
 
And that's the one appeal of the A7/r - a very niche market of old lens users. There's very little in the system to appeal to the average buyer also looking at a Canon or Nikon full-frame DSLR. There's nothing mid-range or affordable in the native mount.

I dread all the on-line posts calling for Fujifilm to produce a full-frame X-series - can they not see what a disaster it would be to "do a Sony" and try and support too many systems?

They seem to have gone for quality, Look at the two primes available and see what similar quality lenses would cost from Nikon and Canon.
 
There's not many lenses you cant mount to a a7. And you can use crop lenses on them, or use the Lea 4 adapter and a mount.
 
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