The virus. PPE. Part 1

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According to what I have seen/read the estimate is 80% will get a mild infection, 14% a more severe attack and between 1% and 2% of the total infected will die, by those numbers we're looking at 9million severe attack and between just over half a million and 1.3million deaths which is about half a million more than seasonal flu, not sure if the 1.3million is in addition or instead.
Sizeable numbers and probably most will be over 80 yrs old with underlying problems.
However, as Govts love to big up the numbers then claim that 300,000 deaths would be a "result" I guess we'll all have to wait and see what the numbers end up as.
As I'm now in the "at risk" group (65+) I'm still quite philosophical about it. I didn't let the terrorists scare me when I lived in London as a lad and I wont let this thing scare me either, what will be will be. I do however feel for those with underlying health issues and those like my dad who's 90 it must be very worrying, particularly if it's your partner who is at risk.
 
Bobsyeruncle said:
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...ys-world-health-organisation-adviser-11942356
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What she actually said was
'Whether it will be contained or not, this outbreak is rapidly becoming the first true pandemic challenge that fits the disease X category, listed to the WHO's priority list of diseases for which we need to prepare in our current globalized society.'
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If you read the definition of "category X" you'll find it is simply a placeholder in a document describing levels of infection. What she meant was that this is a disease that appears to fit the definition around that placeholder but she was careful to say " Whether it will be contained or not".

She made the mistake of presenting a technical definition to journalists who promptly used the quote to write a story in the "We're all doomed" category and subvert her meaning.
 
Professor Marion Koopmans, head of viroscience at Erasmus University Medical Centre in Rotterdam, said the spread of COVID-19, the disease caused by coronavirus, is "rapidly becoming the first true pandemic challenge that fits the Disease X category".

That's ok then. Nothing to concern ourselves about....
 
AndrewFlannigan said:
What she actually said was
If you read the definition of "category X" you'll find it is simply a placeholder in a document describing levels of infection. What she meant was that this is a disease that appears to fit the definition around that placeholder but she was careful to say " Whether it will be contained or not".

She made the mistake of presenting a technical definition to journalists who promptly used the quote to write a story in the "We're all doomed" category and subvert her meaning.
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Where's your source for what she said?
Were you there?
You can't demand sources from others then not post your own....:)
 
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Bobsyeruncle said:
That's ok then. Nothing to concern ourselves about....
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May I suggest you look up the definition of the words you're using?
A pandemic is an epidemic of disease that has spread across a large region; for instance multiple continents, or worldwide. A widespread endemic disease that is stable in terms of how many people are getting sick from it is not a pandemic
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and...
An epidemic is the rapid spread of infectious disease to a large number of people in a given population within a short period of time, usually two weeks or less. For example, in meningococcal infections, an attack rate in excess of 15 cases per 100,000 people for two consecutive weeks is considered an epidemic.
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From this you'll see that calling something a pandemic simply means that a disease is infecting more than 15 people out of every 100,000 people over a wide geographic area.

Both quotes from Wikipedia.

It does not mean that the sky is falling!
 
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AndrewFlannigan said:
May I suggest you look up the definition of the words you're using?
and...
From this you'll see that calling something a pandemic simply means that a disease is infecting more than 15 people out of every 100,000 people over a wide geographic area.

Both quotes from Wikipedia.

It does not mean that the sky is falling!
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Like I said, that's ok, nothing to worry about
 
simon ess said:
I shall always mock fear mongers and doom merchants.

Even if, and that's a galaxy sized if, it turns out to be the deadliest of deadly superbugs killing millions, fear does not help, ever.
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Who's being a fear monger or a doom merchant?
Is no one allowed to show concern without being mocked?

Anyway, I will always mock people who get upset because someone uses the right lane on a roundabout to go straight on....because that really is something to get upset about.:)
 
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Mock away. I'm off on holiday.

Edit to add. I note your smilie so I guess you do understand the difference.
(y)
 
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simon ess said:
Mock away. I'm off on holiday.

Edit to add. I note your smilie so I guess you do understand the difference.
(y)
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Enjoy your trip.
Going to Northern Italy?
Or China?

Of course I understand the difference between the lanes on a roundabout:)
 
Bobsyeruncle said:
You're going on as if no-one has a right to show any concern.
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On the contrary: I'm simply saying that we should all show appropriate concern by not making wild statements but basing our comments on a solid bedrock.
 
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AndrewFlannigan said:
On the contrary: I'm simply saying that we should all show appropriate concern by not making wild statements but basing our comments on a solid bedrock.
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I agree, but a fellow member in his 70's and in poor health is right to be concerned, and I don't consider what he said to be a wild statement, and I certainly wouldn't mock or belittle his concerns.
At the end of the day, none of us on here are world experts on this matter, and actually know what the outcome is likely to be, so I'll take my guidance on how to behave from the virus experts, not a fellow photographer, thank you. :LOL:
 
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Bobsyeruncle said:
Both were too high for that...:LOL:
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I think he’s using 100% (or 200% as he would say) to produce these daft ideas, I’m afraid he just doesn’t understand anything.
The quote Iike best (can’t remember where I read it) is that he felt the way to “cure the cancer problem“ was to get all the top people together and then he felt sure they would come up with a cure :(.
 
The man is an absolute buffoon, the Americans should hang there heads in shame for inflicting him on the world. Even worse they might even re-elect him!
 
Dave70D said:
PM is a fool saying we won`t close down any where, so we are best to take it on the chin and just go from there.
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Statistically....going by the age of those dying, and the average age of the MPs...a lot of them will be in danger, mortal danger.

same goes for Trump, Pence, Sanders, Biden etc
 
I would just like to state that as a member of a ”vulnerable group” I am now in self isolation. Please use hand sanitiser before replying to any post of mine :).
 
Bobsyeruncle said:
At the end of the day, none of us on here are world experts on this matter, and actually know what the outcome is likely to be, so I'll take my guidance on how to behave from the virus experts, not a fellow photographer, thank you. :LOL:
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That is exactly the point I've been making. It's good that we agree. :naughty:
 
Bobsyeruncle said:
I agree, but a fellow member in his 70's and in poor health is right to be concerned, and I don't consider what he said to be a wild statement, and I certainly wouldn't mock or belittle his concerns.
At the end of the day, none of us on here are world experts on this matter, and actually know what the outcome is likely to be, so I'll take my guidance on how to behave from the virus experts, not a fellow photographer, thank you. :LOL:
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AndrewFlannigan said:
That is exactly the point I've been making. It's good that we agree. :naughty:
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Now you two have sorted out your differences; you should get a room and cement the relationship. Just make sure you sanitise afterwards while singing happy birthday, twice!
 
Raymond Lin said:
Statistically....going by the age of those dying, and the average age of the MPs...a lot of them will be in danger, mortal danger.

same goes for Trump, Pence, Sanders, Biden etc
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If any of them get sick however, you bet they will get the very best preferential treatment and care there is, and if needed all the experimental stuff if all else fails.
 
jakeblu said:
Now you two have sorted out your differences; you should get a room and cement the relationship.
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All very lovey dovey...

Pigeons kissing in silhouette P1030357.JPG
 
So according to the pundits on here we should just carry on regardless ,stiff upper lip etc ,well b*****ks to that mr Flanagan ,I’m in my mid 70’s have a dodgy ticker and no wish to depart this mortal coil in the near future .. your lack of concern for life but concern for the facts must make you a really fun guy to have around .
A lot of my posts are written tongue in cheek ,but having faced death about three times in my life and laughed at the devil in all of them I honestly can’t shake off the BAD feelings about this covid virus ... it’s developing far to fast for my liking and has gotten around the world in less than 7 weeks . What the next few months holds no one knows really do they . But it won’t be good
 
I wish you the very best Jeff and, of course, hope that all remains well with you.

I'm not sure how worrying helps but if it does you should definitely do it.

I'm sorry to sound blunt but it has nothing to do with lack of concern for life, exactly the opposite.
 
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simon ess said:
I shall always mock fear mongers and doom merchants.

Even if, and that's a galaxy sized if, it turns out to be the deadliest of deadly superbugs killing millions, fear does not help, ever.
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The thing is, it’s a bit like vaccination. Yes vaccination may (probably) protects you but it also protects others and indirectly protects you if the vaccine hasn’t worked in your case. That’s a bit tortuous but the point I’m making is you may be young and fit and likely to survive the virus but by taking sensible precautions (hand washing etc) it helps protect everyone since if you don’t get it you can’t pass it on to others. Panicking is not involved, nor hoaxes or fake news :).

The most sensible comments I’ve heard came from the representative of the ‘association of intensive care nurses’ (or similar title) saying basically hand washing etc is the thing and all this talk from the government of “army, retired doctors, thousands of extra intensive care beds etc etc) was just pie in the sky because you can’t just magic up extra highly skilled intensive care nurses and in any case there will actually be fewer of them due to sickness/stress/family pressures and so on.
 
the black fox said:
they said this morning that they thought it had mutated already , to a mild form and a virulent one .. the next month or so should be challenging
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Viruses mutate all the time, but the evidence for the claim about the mild and virulent strains, which came from a recently published study, isn't convincing:
View: https://BANNED/stuartjdneil/status/1235275463695757312

View: https://BANNED/richardneher/status/1235217967727681536

More detailed analyses:

https://BANNED/OscarMacLean1/status/1235646591127539712
https://BANNED/arambaut/status/1235638664149037056
https://BANNED/CoronavirusSTEM/status/1235264465848930312

Edit: And a comprehensive takedown here:

http://virological.org/t/response-to-on-the-origin-and-continuing-evolution-of-sars-cov-2/418

"Given these flaws, we believe that Tang et al. should retract their paper, as the claims made in it are clearly unfounded and risk spreading dangerous misinformation at a crucial time in the outbreak."
 
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Good luck for the photography show at the NEC, all those older guys packed like sardines with their pre-existing conditions in Hall 11 or whatever wow! A recipe for disaster.
 
the black fox said:
So according to the pundits on here we should just carry on regardless ,stiff upper lip etc ,well b*****ks to that mr Flanagan ,I’m in my mid 70’s have a dodgy ticker and no wish to depart this mortal coil in the near future .. your lack of concern for life but concern for the facts must make you a really fun guy to have around .
A lot of my posts are written tongue in cheek ,but having faced death about three times in my life and laughed at the devil in all of them I honestly can’t shake off the BAD feelings about this covid virus ... it’s developing far to fast for my liking and has gotten around the world in less than 7 weeks . What the next few months holds no one knows really do they . But it won’t be good
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Conversely, I'm 58. I've already buried a daughter, passed the age my father attained by more than 6 years, faithfully loved a wife for more than 38 years and seen a grand child born. If I should die from this in the next 12 months I'd be content - we all have to go some time, and better when still somewhat vital than decrepit and useless.
 
redsnappa said:
Good luck for the photography show at the NEC, all those older guys packed like sardines with their pre-existing conditions in Hall 11 or whatever wow! A recipe for disaster.
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I am contemplating not going now since I am not planning to buy anything and there is no way I am touching those show cameras in the current climate.
 
ancient_mariner said:
Conversely, I'm 58. I've already buried a daughter, passed the age my father attained by more than 6 years, faithfully loved a wife for more than 38 years and seen a grand child born. If I should die from this in the next 12 months I'd be content - we all have to go some time, and better when still somewhat vital than decrepit and useless.
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I want to stick around long enough to prove the actuaries wrong & make my company pension scheme pay out my share in full ;)
 
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